{"id":2888,"date":"2009-06-16T14:51:25","date_gmt":"2009-06-16T06:51:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.quezon.ph\/2009\/06\/16\/outflanking-her-enemies\/"},"modified":"2010-06-30T16:19:23","modified_gmt":"2010-06-30T08:19:23","slug":"outflanking-her-enemies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.quezon.ph\/2009\/06\/16\/outflanking-her-enemies\/","title":{"rendered":"Outflanking her enemies"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This passage (by Ryszard Kapuscinski<\/a>, first put forward in my entry of February 22, 2008<\/a>), considering not only recent goings-on in Iran<\/a>, but goings-on here at home, comes to mind:<\/p>\n

It is authority that provokes revolution. Certainly, it does not do so consciously. Yet its style of life and way of ruling finally become a provocation. This occurs when a feeling of impunity takes root among the elite: We are allowed anything, we can do anything. This is a delusion, but it rests on a certain rational foundation. For a while, it does indeed look as if they can do whatever they want. Scandal after scandal and illegality after illegality go unpunished. The people remain silent, patient, wary. They are afraid and do not yet feel their own strength. At the same time, they keep a detailed account of the wrongs, which at one particular moment are to be added up. The choice of that moment is the greatest riddle known to history. Why did it happen on that day, and not on another? Why did this event, and not some other, bring it about? After all, the government was indulging in even worse excesses only yesterday, and there was no reaction at all. “What have I done?”\u009d asks the ruler, at a loss. “What has possessed them all of a sudden?”\u009d This is what he has done: He has abused the patience of the people. But where is the limit of that patience? How can it be defined? If the answer can be determined at all, it will be different in each case. The only certain thing is that rulers who know that such a limit exists and know how to respect it can count on holding power for a long time. But there are few such rulers.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I think it’s fair to say the President has learned how to push the envelope without bringing the whole house of cards tumbling down. It helps that quite a few of her in house tacticians earned their spurs during the Marcos years, in the Marcos administration. They knew well enough that no situation unfolds exactly the same as a previous one; but that in bold strokes, an old battle plan might be useful if suitable tweaked and revised.<\/p>\n

In bold strokes: keep many possibilities up in the air; pursue them simultaneously; switch your emphasis from one to the other, depending on circumstances and as opportunities arise; recognize the essentials, as far as public opinion is concerned; never force your foes to feel their backs are against the wall until you possess overwhelming force; meanwhile, pick them off one by one; recognize that the ultimate trump cards in the president’s hands are the armed forces and police, and that the hierarchy of the Catholic Church, if divided, is as much a bulwark of support as it might be a focus for rallying one’s opponents; and always maintain the appearance of legality.<\/p>\n

So we are seeing a dizzying number of possibilities raised, knocked down, revived, shelved, or what have you; the essentials, however, have been identified -primarily, an election in 2010- while everyone is still kept guessing, so that the resources of the enemy are dissipated while that of the administration is more cohesive; the military and police have been kept fat and well-groomed, the hierarchy remains divided, and everything is geared for resolution in the Supreme Court.<\/p>\n

I know many people, both among her admirers and her critics, strongly believe the President’s bottom line is simple: she does not want to be disgraced by going to jail, and she wants to complete her term. I do believe that her stay in office has also convinced her that God put her in power to kick the country into shape. Therefore to be convinced of failure when it comes to the former, will only inspire her to pursue staying in power, as her self-preservation, to her mind, becomes a case of national survival, too.<\/p>\n

So all options must remain on the table for the duration, if only to keep everyone guessing. It helps distract her leading opponents, but also, helps keep her supporters tractable.<\/p>\n

For example, Lito Banayo<\/a> thinks that Gilbert Teodoro’s headed for a trap: he will have to resign from the cabinet on November 30 to pursue his candidacy for the presidency; at which point, Hermogenes Esperon will become Secretary of National Defense. Meanwhile, the President has showered Class 1978 of the Philippine Military Academy with promotions and raised them to the command of strategic forces: “In the Army,” Banayo points out, which “is 75% of all the armed forces,” her loyalists command “six out of 10 infantry divisions.” All dissent within the AFP has been suppressed; the Marines are kept busy in Mindanao. The case against General Francisco V. Gudani<\/a> is instructive, too.<\/p>\n

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(photo from<\/em> Jose Antonio Figueroa<\/em><\/a> collection)<\/em><\/p>\n

Now let me reproduce a passage from Ferdinand Marcos’ diary, from September 1, 1972. Senator Daniel Inouye, on a visit to supposedly survey typhoon damage, confided to Marcos that he was in town to “see the general situation.” Marcos then goes on to recount,<\/p>\n

He asked me what is going to happen. He explained that he has been told there are four options: 1. Extension of my term 2. A parliamentary form of government 3. I run for reelection 3. Martial law.<\/p>\n

I immediately countered that I do not need martial law to win an election and that in the present situation anybody I opposed would come out; that I would not agree to allowing the First Lady to run since it would be unfair to her. “We are too old in this game to need martial law to get votes,” I said and he smiled with understanding.<\/p>\n

“However,” I explained, “do not misunderstand me. If the communists sow terror in Manila. If they bomb and burn, kill and kidnap, if they use the Vietcong tactics; then I will not hesitate to proclaim martial law.”<\/p>\n

“What I would prefer would be an extension. But I would accept it only if the political opposition agrees to it. If they do not I will not agree to it.”<\/p>\n

“I would then try to be a Prime Minister.”<\/p>\n

“But I would first wipe out the communists before the next President or Prime Minister takes over so he has a chance. I need several years to build up my replacement. None of those aspiring now are fit to lead the country. Aquino and Diokno are demagogues and are communist-inclined. They would immediately set up a communist regime. Roxas is a weakling. He would not risk his life to protect our freedoms. Puyat is an oligarch. He has too many interests to protect.”<\/p>\n

“What we need is somebody who is trusted by the Armed Forces, is a liberal thinker, will fight communism and will risk not only his life but everything in this fight.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Consider the tactics in play in this passage.<\/p>\n

1. Reassure everyone of your adherence to democracy;<\/p>\n

2. Downgrade your enemies;<\/p>\n

3. Point to a credible threat;<\/p>\n

4. And point to yourself, by virtue of this process of elimination, as the one who should be left standing, by force of arms if need be.<\/p>\n

Now consider this video, of the President speaking at the PaLaKa unification shindig.<\/p>\n

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Here is the transcript of what the President said:<\/p>\n

Let us also make the alliance between the local government units and the Armed Forces of the Philippines a major campaign plank, especially in the local elections.<\/p>\n

I ask Administration candidates to take this up as a key governance thrust, and openly support those who pledge to push peace and development, and oppose collaborators of those who seek to use violence to overthrow government and to impose their obsolete ideology on the people. (applause)<\/p>\n

In 2010, let us have none of our LGUs flirting with the enemies of the state. (applause) And let us show those who continue to do so as undermining their communities and their Republic. I am confident that with you working with me now under one political name and banner, we can further strengthen our partnership in pursuit of the people’s welfare.<\/p>\n

In 2010, let us have none of our LGUs flirting with the enemies of the state. (applause) And let us show those who continue to do so as undermining their communities and their Republic. I am confident that with you working with me now under one political name and banner, we can further strengthen our partnership in pursuit of the people’s welfare.<\/p>\n

Our government has always found it easier and more productive to bring down projects and services to provinces and localities where governors are not at odds with congressmen, or mayors are not at odds with their governors or their congressmen. And I am glad that our merged party will have a mechanism for reconciliation or, if necessary, the adjudication of disputes at the local level.<\/p>\n

Cynics and detractors love to paint grim scenarios about a cancellation of the 2010 elections. Let this merger of LAKAS and KAMPI be tangible proof of the Administration’s readiness, nay determination, to help ensure that the elections do push through. (applause)<\/p>\n

The emergence of LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD as one party is our finest weapon and perhaps our best guarantee for success in the 2010 elections. (applause) I look upon LAKAS-KAMPI, moving as one, fighting as one, as the instrument and vehicle for electing the best, most qualified and the worthiest leaders of our country. (applause)<\/p>\n

Let us strive for victory which not only our party but the entire nation and our democracy can claim as their own.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I’ve been trying to find an Executive Order the President reportedly recently signed, instituting the above as an official policy of her administration.<\/p>\n

But straight from the horse’s mouth is the emerging tactic of pursuing a showdown with the Left, to galvanize support within the military, and set the stage for a showdown which opens up many tactical opportunities: a means to crack down on local government leaders being just one of these opportunities, under the guise of a renewed offensive against the Left, along the lines long ago drawn up by Norberto Gonzales and friends.<\/p>\n

This is not an encouraging one, for those inclined to hope 2010 comes along and resolves the past few years’ divisions by taking the President out of the equation.<\/p>\n

She sees an opening and intends to maximize it. Of course there will be elections. It will be accompanied by a showdown. The showdown… well, it expands the options available to the ruling party.<\/p>\n