In Sabato’s Crystal Ball – The Final Predictions there’s an interesting analysis of the US election, with state-by-state predictions and analysis as well. Their prediction (sort of):
We don’t really believe the tie, but if ever there is a year that will produce an Electoral College tie–given 10 tied polls at the end–it is 2004. We really think that if turnout hovers around 115 million to 117 million Bush has the edge, but if turnout truly skyrockets, most of those new voters will not be coming out to say, “Good job Mr. President,” and Kerry will pull the upset.
