The Long View
Great expectations
By Manuel L. Quezon III
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:23:00 06/14/2010
IN its exit poll, social weather stations concluded its questionnaire with three questions: the first asked whether people thought the quality of governance would a) get better (57 percent); b) be the same as now (15 percent); c) get worse (2 percent); or d) no comment (26 percent). The second asked whether in the coming 12 months the quality of life would a) be better (29 percent); b) be the same (23 percent); c) be worse (2 percent); d) no comment (26 percent). And finally, over the same period, would the economy of the Philippines a) be better (52 percent); b) be the same (19 percent); c) be worse (2 percent); and d) no comment (27 percent).
The majorities expressing optimism isn’t surprising, and neither are the steady minorities with a slightly pessimistic to highly pessimistic opinion; what’s remarkable are the significant minorities—basically a quarter of the population—who preferred not to venture an opinion in public. So on the one hand, public opinion is cautiously optimistic while a significant minority prefers to wait and see; overall a fairly healthy distribution of opinion and certainly, a working basis for sustaining what the country as a whole has achieved.
And that is, that after 2001, when we came closest to a Bangkok Moment, and came close to one again in 2005, society as a whole, regardless of the desires of its various component parts, which ranged from the administration’s preference to take public opinion—in national terms—out of the governance equation on one hand, and the Year Zero/New Society fantasies of many of its organized critics, a consensus emerged to institute a kind of political triage. Neither government nor its critics could go too far out of bounds, the whole thing quarantined, so to speak, with periodic measurements of the public pulse by way of elections.
The temptation of course is to paper over nagging problems or to view public debate as irksome, now that the patient has a new lease on life, and we are looking forward (broadly speaking) to the first administration with a widely accepted mandate since 1998. On the one hand, if many desire some peace and quiet, there is such a thing as being too quiet and pacific precisely at a time when the country not only has to rebuild its institutions, but find a way toward a productive, because inclusive and consensus-driven, civic culture.
There is no more democratic point of view than the one so eloquently put forward by Patricia Evangelista yesterday: “To critique is not to dictate, it is to participate, to speak, to engage. That promise made on May 10 when millions lined up for hours for the right to choose leaders begins its work now, and will continue for the next six years even when the applause ends, love dies and the hero is stripped of legend.” One might only add, it is one of the great expectations of a society whose opinions were consistently shrugged off as “political noise” by the present dispensation whose shredders are working overtime to deny future officials any evidence that could end up produced in hitherto “proper” forums.
The question of the role public opinion should play in a representative democracy was settled in 1922, the question put forward in a great party division and then in a special election. On Feb. 17 of that year, the assertion was first put forward that “the party never has been and never will be the people. My loyalty to my party ends where my loyalty to my country begins,” and with that assertion, the corresponding desire for “a government of opinion, not a government that solves vital questions without the country’s knowledge or how or when the solution was made.”
If nature abhors a vacuum, so does public opinion and by extension, so does media—to which an increasingly shrinking portion of the public pays sustained attention in general—and which has found itself treated with such a sustained combination of outright deception or hostility by official circles.
My point is that if parties aren’t the people, neither are NGOs, nor broader Civil Society, nor even the media: they are all subsets of the whole, and cannot—and should not—believe they are superior to any other. But on the other hand, they do legitimately speak out and weigh in, inevitably antagonistically at times: with officialdom having the burden of proof to justify and convince all these publics of both the relevance and correctness of government’s actions.
Where everyone seems stumped is how—and where—all the competing publics should thresh out their differences. There lies the value in recognizing the public consensus, such as it’s been, of the past few years: to thresh things out in various institutional arenas, insisting, however, that even as institutions have their assigned check-and-balance functions, the ultimate arbiter of legitimacy is public opinion.
This is the opposite of the ritual answer of the present dispensation, which has always been “in the proper forum,” and through the duly constituted authorities: but that assumed, or more precisely stubbornly insisted, on the “presumption of legality” when the foundations of that presumption, institutions and officials with mandate, were at best imperfectly present and almost entirely absent for the chief executive.
As far back as October 2005, Ricky Carandang had pointed out in his blog (in, alas, a now-vanished entry) that our society is an extremely low-trust one, to begin with; for much of the past five years, government preferred divide-and-rule rather than to rebuild trust. And yet, a healthy skepticism to anything official aside, I don’t doubt that people want to be able to trust their representatives—but it is officialdom who has to earn that trust. The mandate elected officials received on May 10 is the foundation, as firm as any we’ve had; but it will take a lot more, requiring raising the bar on how government engages its many publics.
Every administration should be entitled to a honeymoon period. Whether expectations are getting ahead of themselves, we shall see. I am personally hoping for the best, yet I’m aware that there’s so much to be done. And undone.
Imnot very optimistic about Nonoy but you ll never really know. So far naman he is OK naman . I like his choice of excutive secretary. I hoping he recruits new faces into his cabinet.
The critical thing to watch out for is whether the Great Expectations turns into the Great Overreach as the reform coalition in the political and governance spectrum face overwhelming challenges and entrenched interests.
Case in point is the Reformasi in Indonesia. After so many years under the leadership of SBY’s finance minister Sri Mulyani, recently resigned due to opposition from SBY’s coalition partners in the Golkar Party of former dictator Suharto, it is now grinding to a halt.
We avoided the Bangkok meltdown. We also need to learn from the difficulties of reform in Jakarta. Pres SBY gained an overwhelming mandate for reform with his re-election, yet it seems the power brokers still managed to upstage the reformers in his cabinet. They did it by using the democratic institutions to investigate the actions of the key reformers as SBY mysteriously stood passively by.
Will Mr Aquino, whose coalition is less fragmented and more coherent than SBY be able to stick to his guns at crucial moments? Let us hope so. The future of Philippine reform depends on it.
The Inquirer’s “Bangkok Moment” article is worrisome with similarities between Thailand and Philippines, and the very narrow differences.
The middle-class yellow shirts have also shown that they confuse activism with noblesse oblige. They invoke democracy and the rule of law but can’t seem to accept the results of democratic elections.
. . . . . nominally democratic governments veneered thinly over weak institutions …. electoral politics has not worked. This they tried to remedy through the courts …
Noynoy DID THREATEN to use street-protests if he was not declared winner, and this was days before election-day itself. Pilipinas was lucky this time. Maybe, not next time.
The poor of Pilipinas, there are so many of them. Maybe next time they will indeed torch the streets.
But we cannot build a democracy based simply on good luck. We need to build strong institutions for when fortune doesn’t smile and we are thrown to the mercy of our fates.
* * *
If the Noynoy administration will not have the I-gave-you-democracy-and-therefore-I’m-good sentiment of his mother’s administration then I think we will be OK.
MLQ, about public opinion… Isn’t it a good time to strengthen institutions first and make public REACTION less important for this regime?
I wasn’t expecting PNoy could actually win. If I was gambling, I would have pinned my hopes on Pnoy but bet my money on Villar – I’m a lousy gambler I supposed.
I don’t have high expectations with PNoy also, its enough that the people showed how much value we still place in “one man one vote” this is how much we value our freedom, it doesn’t matter if we had to endure the heat, sweat, smell of armpits, and irritation with people inserting in line up ahead.
Then again, I too hope that in the six years of this administration, the institutions should be reformatted or strengthened, whatever, so as to get our checks and balances in line already and at least level the playing field.
I have some concerns though, what if the effectivity of a current administration is dependent on how the incumbent can wheel and deal with corrupt congressmen, senators, etc. ? What if what people are saying you can’t get any cooperation or support if you don’t offer people money in return?
What if the Arroyo administration really had good programs, noble intentions, etc., but had to resort to corrupt practices just to get things done, or defend itself (pay off generals)…
We don’t need luck to pull this trough, we need an act of God…
It was always clear that Noynoy would win. Those survey numbers were always in his favor. And if there was anything that these last elections proved, besides pointing out the promising prospects of automation, it’s that our surveys have become very accurate and sophisticated. Regardless of what Dick Gordon and others say.
What is very clear now, is that it will take much more than luck to pull through. I certainly hope that Noynoy and company aren’t just banking on luck or magic. It will take a lot of hard work, creative thinking, tough negotiating and, ultimately, some horse trading cannot be ruled out.
Great expectations vs. negative scenarios expectations, I’ll take the former anytime. The latter will be counter-productive.
Mrs Arroyo’s narrative over the past 5 years has been that she needed to work around the boundaries of our constitutional and institutional frameworks in order to progress the reforms that the country needed in order for it to grow beyond the 4-5% of the past 20 years. Her motives were questioned, but in the end, she came very close to doing just that.
Mr Aquino’s narrative seems to be that he will work within the present institutional frameworks in order not only to match or exceed Mrs Arroyo’s prowess in economic management but to break the cycle of severe poverty that afflicts close to 4/10 filipinos.
As many commentators suggest, there is more to it than that slogan of his during the campaign (“kung walang kurap, walang mahirap”). The auspicious growth and goodwill at the start of his term can be attributed in part to “luck”. The fiscal deficit will be the first hurdle for him. His first SONA and budget will signal if he indeed is willing to make the tough decisions required of him.
Among Noynoy’s first momentous decisions will be where he will reside.
The next kagila-gilalas? To send a number of names — smugglers and tax-evaders — to jail within his first months in office. Sending smugglers/tax-eaders is actually cornerstone to Noynoy’s economic plan — plugging the revenue leaks.
We have to revert back to Marx, who suggested to look into the economics to explain the politics.
You’re political points won’t elucidate the current situation Manolo, because you’ve never been really into economics, being a pure political animal.
The simple economics is that it would be harder for governments to borrow money in the years to come. GMA had the benefit of cheap money and credit in the noughties. This masked the bastardization of our politics and political institutions.
Noynoy’s admin, despite the enthusiasm of the public, will be characterized by economic hardship brought by higher taxes.
Higher taxes dampen economic growth. Low economic growth affects the very poor first. And we have lots of them.
Additional taxes will be necessary because the ensuing deficits courtesy of GMA, Erap, and Ramso’s carefree spending cannot be plugged by cheap money anymore, thus necessitating taxes, taxes, and more taxes.
My advise to Noynoy, if he reads this blog, is to lower expectations immediately. His whole PR team should focus on the appearance of austerity.
He should ditch the presidential SUV convoys and opt for 1 car and 1 bodyguard . He should proceed with living in Arlegui and open Malacanang to the public and make it a fee-earning museum. He should religiously avoid being photographed or caught on TV cameras enjoying the trappings of wealth (expensive restaurants, society-page parties, expensive barongs, anything that will be bought by aspirational Makati set yuppies like iPads and gadgets, blue-seal cigarettes, imported wine and liquor, etc.). This should extend to his girlfriend and immediate family especially Kris Aquino (a herculean feat I admit). He should keep wearing those oversized, unfashionable shirts.
He shouldn’t be seen holding anything that can’t be bought by a pulubi.
And he should use his girlfriend, who has an air of “simple lang na” girlfriend about her, to magnify this austere image. The should be photographed eating in turo-turo and picking fishball off street vendors.
There are many more creative ways to look simple. They should do this immediately and keep to the script, in preparation of the national hardship in the years to come. Doing this now will soften the blow of public anger due to economic hardships.
Minor detail — Ramos, Erap and GMA all focused on paying off BNPP debt. Bataan Nuclear debt payment is one millstone the Noynoy administration does not have.
And it was Noynoy himself who bleated and tooted “plugging the revenue leaks — No New Taxes” as campaign slogan when he spoke before Makati Business Club and in subsequent interviews.
And his speeches should denounce his privileged upbringing. He should appear to hate living in the confines of Luisita as a “boss”. He should use television programs to highlight his “friends” in Luisita, the drivers, maids, and threshers.
His speeches should focus on simple living. He should denounce and vilify the Makati business club set and the “buhay-hari” trapos and their bombastic lifestyles. This is a rehash of Erap’s strategy of pitting the poor against the rich. It proved somewhat effective in Erap’s time, so why not use it again?
Use Cory Aquino’s legacy. Luckily for Noynoy, he inherited his Mom’s aloofness rather that his father’s portly, respectable, demeanor, so it will be easy to sell his as a simple, austere person just like his mom.
I was wondering how the coming administration could impose higher taxes and still get the “moan” support of the people – SOP is right on track here! If we see that our leaders are sharing the burden with us through visible austere lifestyles, we will feel that they’re actually serious…
Isn’t it a good time to strengthen institutions first and make public REACTION less important for this regime?
– Do good, look good; do bad, look bad. I suppose this marriage is inviolable. A PR job or make-over has its limitations.
– I too am for revitalized institutions. But how do we do it?
Noynoy has said he will fire at least 5,000 government employees. That’s not too many, considering the number of people employed by government. I want to see Noynoy carry that out, specially since austerity has become an international catchword these days. Profligacy was the norm the past decade or so. The new normal will be frugality, as SOP points out.
I also want to see how Noynoy carries out his promise not to impose any new taxes. And how he plans to plug the deficits. 🙂
Well, Noynoy has to hire at least two dozen lawyers and another two-dozen staff to populate his COMMISSION to prepare the court cases of (1) Garcification; (2) NTN/broadband;(3) fertilizer scam;(4) NAIA Terminal 3;(5) Northrail;(6) OWWA/ Philhealth cards during 2004 elections.
By its very definition (under NIE or new institutional economics), institutions are “constraints”. So to rebuild institutions, means to be bound by the “rules”. That means running after ill-gotten wealth and tax cheats will be confounded by the legal system and could be very costly too.
Meanwhile the deficit continues to mount. Austerity measures by the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) will contract global growth. Although living an austere lifestyle makes for good PR, it will not solve the basic problems confronting the nation. “Soak the rich” policies will not help, as private investments are key to recovery and growth.
P-Noy really has his job cut out for him. If he wants to ramp up poverty targeted programs like CCT (conditional cash transfers) he will need to either raise the VAT rate or ramp down existing programs, ie the rice subsidies are poorly targeted. To bring the budget into balance, he can actually rationalize fiscal incentives (something which Big Business endorses) as well as index tobacco taxes. Making these type of tough decisions will convince others he means business.
A Pnoy spokeman was interviewed on the news this morning, they had an excess of 30million+ for the campaign funds from donations – they are giving it back. (?)
A far cry from another presidential son who bought properties in the US…this will make so many people uncomfortable, and I don’t just mean government. There’s always this excess funds from the budget every year (marketing, etc) that most executives find ways to liquidate otherwise next year’s will be slashed. Its always been the case, Pnoy will look awfully corny and killjoy… 🙂
-Noy really has his job cut out for him. If he wants to ramp up poverty targeted programs like CCT (conditional cash transfers) he will need to either raise the VAT rate or ramp down existing programs, ie the rice subsidies are poorly targeted. To bring the budget into balance, he can actually rationalize fiscal incentives (something which Big Business endorses) as well as index tobacco taxes. Making these type of tough decisions will convince others he means business.
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Now how to sell this?
And he should use his girlfriend, who has an air of “simple lang na” girlfriend about her, to magnify this austere image. The should be photographed eating in turo-turo and picking fishball off street vendors.
—————————————–
SOP,
I hope the new president doesn’t get Hepatitis or Ecoli infection if he follows your advise.
talks about robredo for DILG makes me feel good about Noynoys cabinet. Im actually anxious on how Noynoy will handle Binay.
Binay, the “manok” of Kamag-anak Inc., will represent a more traditional, albeit hard-nosed and pragmatic, side of this administration. As opposed to the more high-minded factions such as the Hyatt 10 and the activists within the LP.
Both groups can be feisty and ambitious. While they may be civil to each other on the surface, there are bound to be hostilities and tensions as they fight for Noynoy’s attention.
The pragmatists will probably keep a low profile initially, and wait until blunders shall have been committed, before it makes its moves. Binay’s rather precipitate move for the DILG portfolio was a lesson learned. It immediately raised red flags, and the other side swiftly moved to counter that option. Now it looks unlikely for Binay to get that portfolio. For the moment. 🙂
The same could be said about people who comment on blogs. Especially, when they actually diverge from what is being said in the article nor offer points for against the issues raised or actual insight.
That said…
IMHO, people are cautiously optimistic. I agree on the point that May 10 creates a legitimacy that we haven’t had for 10 years and that is a step in the right direction. I think the old saying is right— trust is earned, not given. I think it is prudent and necessary for Aquino to succeed is to prove as quickly as he can manage that indeed there is a new sherif in town and that this sherif means business.
One small feedback mechanism that slowly builds confidence and trust. Kinda like putting an untested army, making it fight small battles and as the troops and generals and strategy gains confidence, so then it can take on bigger challenges. I think that’s important to combat cynicism and doubt. minor victories, and transparency, which is a departure from past administration is needed.
Cynisism, that’s the word aptly descibing the attitude of some bloggers. That’s not bad, though quite premature. I totally agree with Cocoy.
wow carl you making me feel comfortable with binay.
as talikng to afrein in tornto last night. he tough doesn’t expect much from Nonoy. But NOnynoy can surprise us, he said in the end.
So I think Cocoy put it so well. Peopele are cautiosuly optimistic.
The narrative from the press office of the prez Noynoy should be quick and simple:
“Noynoy will put an end to decades of unfettered borrowing that put our country in a dire financial position and our people in deep economic misery. Noynoy’s admin will be the start of a decades long plan to chip away at the stifling debts acquired by Macapagal, Marcos, Aquino, Ramos, Erap, and GMA. AS THE BUCK STOPS AT THE PRESIDENT, SO TOO WILL THE DEBTS STOP AT NOYNOY.
This ambitious effort will require sacrifices from all sectors of society: business, government, middle class, OFW’s (hello taxes on foreign earnings!) and, bureaucracy. There will be no exceptions and exemptions. There will be no excuses and there will be results.”
“We recognize promises have been made during elections regarding taxes but…”I’m at a loss on how to spin this.
This simple narrative coupled with the image of austerity above will give Noynoy the public support needed in the coming trying times.
edit: This simple narrative coupled with the image of austerity above will give Noynoy the public support needed…to raise taxes! Haha.
The cynics are pretty determined in their harping for the new president to raise taxes as if urging him to break his pre-election promise therefore humiliating him. Not only that they seem to be overly dampening people’s expectation of him but also apparently eagerly wanting Noynoy to get the ire of the people so early.
No words of encouragement from these cynics whatsoever to Noynoy regards his other promise to minimize if not eradicate corruption in government, especially the Bureau of Customs and the BIR, etc., that would negate the need to raise taxes if successful.
Cynicism is not bad, but hoping for failure is.
i’m looking forward to seeing P.NOY’s appointments. key appointments to watch out for: DILG (rooting for Robredo since Robredo’s expertise lies in local governance; hoping he can duplicate his success in Naga and spread it throughout the Phils) Sandiganbayan (and all the anti-graft institutions) – obviously, to clean up the government, you need a clean slate in these institutions. yes i know some of these positions are constitutionally protected with tenure. still. a president’s baton can be a powerful thing.
what i am expecting the most from P.NOY is political will. to do what’s right inspite and despite of…
I am especially holding him accountable for his campiagn slogan “Kung Walang Corrupt, Walang Mahirap.” expecting him to hold true to this all throughout his term.
i’m not very much interested in him being an “economist” like gloria. i believe prosperity will follow if he can truly rid the government of graft and corruption. so he can focus on reforming government, he should have appointees he really trust and who are more than capable to do their jobs. leave them to do their work, and focus on getting rid of graft and corruption.
again, his oncoming appointments will speak loudly of his plans. i expect only the best and most competent people to be appointed. meritocracy. that’s what people are looking for P.NOY. give it to us.
needless to say, CSC and the whole bureaucracy really needs some much needed overhaul and strengthening. cut and trim. leave only the best and brightest and cut the leeches off.
oh, and btw. if you are being considered for a post Manolo, you should ask for the post of press secretary. it’s the best fit for you.
Personally I dont like calling Noynoy PNoy the same way that I did not us PGMA at all. I feel BSA3 is better.
Whether Pnoy increases taxes or not, it really depends on how open we are to this idea. On how he will present the “real” situation to us, and what options are available. I believe its time we had some transparency on top of all this impressive multi point plans that most people don’t appreciate anyway.
…it would also be better if this time around the survey outfits could be used as a gauge for success for whatever new multi point plans may be and seriously taken into consideration mid implemention…
I don’t think 6 years will have a big impact on the economy, damage control would be the order of the day. The OFWs and BPOs will have to continue what they have been doing and hope for better things to come.
wow tonyboy cojuangco donated 100 million to Noynoys campaign. All along I thought it was teh pisospiso campaign. Hmmm pano naman kay babawiin ni yang 1000 milyon na yan????
oops 100 milyon lang
Hindi lang si Tonyboy Cojuangco. What about the Lopezes and other oligarchs? Anyway, I also hope meritocracy will be the order of the day. Despite the behind-the-scenes presence of those oligarchs holding their IOU’s.
History shows us that great leaders were traitors to their class.
FDR was branded as such in his time.
Deng Xiaoping was called a traitor to the communist ideology because he allowed capitalist incentives.
Nelson Mandela, who pragmatically allowed whites to continue running their farms and businesses so as not to set-off a brain drain and capital flight, was accused of being “soft” and pro-white by the radicals in his own party. Today, the situations in Zimbabwe, which confiscated and oppressed the whites, and South Africa, which went for a gentler policy of gradual capital and intellectual transfer, speak for themselves.
In present times, Lula da Silva of Brazil, once a radical union leader, has been denounced by the left for abandoning class warfare in favor of more capitalistic policies. Brazil is now considered among the countries with the greatest economic potential.
It’s only fair to wonder whether Noynoy has what it takes to turn his back on his class. His mother never did. I certainly hope the son will be different.
personally, i wouldn’t mind increased taxes IF (and this is a very big if) i feel the good effects such taxes brings to my life AND the government can demonstrate fiscal discipline, ability to plug fiscal leaks, and increase the quality of life all throughout the country. at least man lang maramdaman ko na may pinatutunguhan ang buwis ko, okay lang mag increase ng buwis. eh kung di na nga gumagaan ang buhay, kinukurakot pa ang pera ng bayan, sino naman talaga gagaganahan magbayad ng buwis? pagpunta mo sa mga government offices, babastusin ka pa at papag aantayin. mga buwakanang inang to. pera ng taongbayan nagpapakain at bumubuhay sainyo, galangin nyo naman kami. mga public services very poor or non-existent pa minsan. sa ganitong kaso, entitled ang citizenry na wag magbayad ng buwis.
hmm you are so impressive carl!
But my problem her really is that people were told to fear Villar because he is spending lots and lots money in teh campaign. even Manolo wroie one article with teh same obejective. Now it turns out that Noys noys relative poured a lot of money too. This was never raised dduring teh election. its like peopel were fooled to believe that it was really the people thenselves who was funding the campaign.
To me this really says a lot about Noynoy. Aba eh ano na ang pinag kaiba nya sa pagiging liar ni Gloria . And those peopele who are with Noynoy made a very big issue of Glorias lie during her 6 years term.
Harap harapan tayo nilolko ni Noynoy. So can we really expect much from him?
alden,
You forgot the small matter of SEC manipulation and of course the C5 at taga…where did he get the billions, from the government, not really his…better do your homework first, the 15 million or so who voted for him are obviously a lot smarter than you think, definitely smarter than you (obvious ba?)
If you attack a person, get your facts right or chismoso ka lang din na walang katuturan…
that goes for carl too..the collective wisdom of even 5 fish vendors is even more than his “intellectual” mind kuno…
It seems that so far, the Hyatt 10 and the LP activists have Noynoy’s ear. The appointment of Mar Roxas to head Noynoy’s transition team is a temporary setback for Kamaganak Inc., Peping Cojuangco and Jojo Binay. Everyone is now scrambling to cover their tracks. Binay has issued a denial that he sought a cabinet position, even though he unambiguously stated that he wanted the DILG post. Ballsy Cruz has also been quick to deny any rift between Noynoy and Binay, which is partly true, as the rift isn’t between Noynoy and Binay. It’s between Binay and the other people behind Noynoy. Particularly the Hyatt 10 and the LP activists.
But it is obvious that there are very real contradictions within Noynoy’s group. And there are very real power struggles going on. Both groups are experienced. And very jealous of their sphere of influence. They are no strangers to vicious, and even toxic, turf wars. The Hyatt 10 and the LP activists continue to cling to Mar Roxas as their champion. His loss for the V.P. position was a setback, but they figure Noynoy still owes Mar big time because of Mar’s sacrifices and his family’s substantial contributions to the campaign. Noynoy seems to be honoring that “utang na loob” to Mar for the moment. But, eventually, Mar’s influence will wane. Let’s not forget that he lost these elections. Noynoy was the winner. Mar was the loser. And, eventually, blunders will be committed. That will be the time for Jojo Binay and the pragmatists to come out and show their true worth. This will be a long, drawn-out power play. It will take patience and guile. Matira ang matibay. In my view, the Binay camp has the edge in patience, experience and intelligence. We shall see more infighting in the months, even years, to come. The upheaval that threw Mar Roxas to the dogs goes deep in the Noynoy organization. And don’t forget that they won!
As for fools who would comment about knowing any better, it is all a matter of coming out with logical analysis, instead of making broad statements that only betray their ignorance and cluelessness.:-)
P-Noy? Mas malinaw kung pormal — President Aquino.
But apparently there is an undercurrent of distrust —I have no idea the size of the group who now call Noynoy yelotsit. o Aquinorroyo.
http://philippinecommentary.blogspot.com/2010/06/pcos-machines-in-antipolo-untold-story.html?showComment=1276702099379#c5558527661986435425
The OFFICIAL list of Noynoy donors gives us an idea of how he is compromised by the oligarchy. Big-time contractors, some influence peddlers, construction material suppliers, the CEO of Ayala Land, cabinet aspirants, big landowners. Others are family, mostly from the Cojuangco side. Kris is up there, too, with a P15 million donation. Kaya siguro nagtampo si James.
But what is interesting is what hasn’t been officially reported. The way the Lopezes turned ABS-CBN into Noynoy’s propaganda machine was worth more than what money could buy. 🙂
Manolo, I’m put off by Noynoy’s early pronouncement of calling for EDSA if he wouldn’t be declared president.
I mean, to lambast the institutional foundation of democracy that is the elections, certainly reveals a lot about his frame of mind.
How’s this different from GMA using comelec as her “personal” institution?
I don’t think Noynoy will be different from GMA.
Remember, we all thought of GMA as a non-trapo at the beginning.
The public holds the same view of Noynoy at the moment. But things will quickly unravel.
That’s just my humble opinion. I see no evidence to the contrary for now.
i distrusted GMA from the very beginning. i thought instinctively she was grabbing power when Estrada was ousted. a teacher told me (when I declined to join them in the march to EDSA): sayang ka noy, akala ko idealistic ka pa naman. sabi ko: sir, baka buwaya lang ang ipapalit natin sa pating.
this same instinct tells me there is hope in Noy. And also a lot of danger. Hope, believing in Noy’s honesty and integrity, danger, for all his good intentions, Noy is still surrounded by many who only thinks of themselves.
kaya nga many are awaiting with eagerness Noy’s appointments. kapag tumama, marami makakahinga ng maluwag. pag may bumokya, naku! sigurado marami magagalit sa kanya.
remember that Noy doesn’t especially have a strong personality. he has a tendency to buckle and bend (and give in) when pressured (by certain groups). this is evidenced by his decision to run for President. pinilit sya ng kapartido. di nya ginusto. i fear, when push comes to shove, these same ppl will twist his arm and he won’t have the strength to say no.
makikita mo ang pagiging indecisive ni Noy. his words: i like to have a consensus (regarding the appointments) what the hell? you are the President! you don’t need to ask permission from anyone who to appoint. advice yes. suggestions yes. but consensus?
yang kay Binay pa lang, nagpapa tapik2 pa sya eh malinaw namang pagpapatiwakal kung gagawin nyang DILG sec si Binay. VP na, DILG sec pa? too powerful! anytime pwedeng mag EDSA 4 si Binay and Noy will be ousted! Arroyos and Marcoses are still out there.
good advice for a King. give your enemy a position in which he won’t consider an embarrassment but which will effectively remove him from any position of influence.
i would suggest a GOCC. give Binay more rope to hang himself with. strengthen Sandiganbayan and all anti-graft institutions and then let them loose. I’m sure Binay will be a casualty somewhere along the line.
The initial cabinet list will be dominated by nominees of the Hyatt 10 and the LP. The fact that Mar Roxas heads the transition team shows that, for the meantime, Noynoy has given them the nod. That could be a two-edged sword. That could also mean that they have been given enough rope to hang themselves with. Pag pumalpak sila, that’s the end of them. There’ll be nothing inspirational about the initial cabinet. Performance will still be the ultimate barometer, not the personalities being given cabinet positions.
As for Binay and the Kamag-anak, they know Noynoy only too well. They know his weaknesses and they know that, in the end, he will have to run to them. Noynoy has nothing to fear from Binay. Noynoy himself knows that. Pagbigyan muna nila Binay itong mga power-hungry faction ng Hyatt 10 at LP, if only for Noynoy to find out for himself how loyal this faction really is. In the end, the true colors will show and the irritants will cause a parting of ways.
Well Jao, the game is rigged. There are 3 simple steps to making a graft and corruption case.
1. Complain to Ombudsman
2. Ombudsman investigates and collects evidence and files case to Sandiganbayan.
3. Sandiganbayan tries the case.
How is the game rigged?
1. First, there’s no simple way to peer into the bank accounts of corrupt officials. This is the most simple corroborative, circumstantial evidence that can be used against an accused official, used often in advanced governments overseas. In our country, it’s hard to open up any individual’s bank account.
2. There are only 1000 Ombudsman personnel, handling 3 cases per week 52 weeks a year. They’re severely understaffed.
3. There are not that many Sandiganbayan judges as well.
How do you win in a game like this?
Is there a concrete plan to change this? This wasn’t brought up in the campaigns.
My gut tells me they want to keep the game rigged for their benefit.
I said it before and I’ll keep saying it: legalize jueteng. The profit for government will be 10 billion a year.
Enough to hire 8,000 lawyers and accountants for the office of the Ombudsman and 2,000 judges for Sandiganbayan at the rate of 1 million per year salary.
Or you could slash it by P500,000 per year salary and you will double the number of the rank.
Create a law to open up bank accounts easily.
Thing is, even if these were enacted immediately, it will take years for the common people to feel the effects.
So you can imagine how much fucked up we are going to be that there are no plans to change the game anytime soon.