In general the surveys break down our population into six age groups: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64 and those 65 and above. The surveys tell us (for the purposes of this piece I’ll just focus on the most recent Pulse Asia Jan. 22-26 findings) that between the two leading contenders, Benigno Aquino III is strongest among the 18-24 and 45-54 age brackets (9-point leads, respectively), 55-64 (10-point lead) and 65 and up (a 19-point lead!) age groups. Manny Villar is strong in the 25-34 (10 points) and 35-44 (4 points) age groups.
On one hand, voters with the greatest life experience (if you’re 65 you were born after the war ended in 1945, so your memories go as far back as the Quirino years, probably), or who are contemporaries of the two leading candidates (Aquino falls within the 45-54 bracket, Villar falls within the 55-54 bracket) and those with the least life experience (if you’re 18 now, and thus a first-time voter, you were born in 1992) all seem to have a similar perspective in that they are generally for Aquino. Villar’s constituency, age-wise, seems to be those currently just starting to climb the corporate ladder or who are in middle management [or of OFW age]. Villar’s constituency happens to be the most numerous portion of the population. [See this chart a friend prepared containing age groups and significant dates that molded the attitudes of particular generations].
I have had the chance to give talks to groups of university students lately. Belonging to the 18-24 age group, they comprise 14 percent of the voting population. They are at the tail end of what I believe will come to be known as the Arroyo babies, just as my generation is known as the martial law babies (born during the earlier part of the Marcos administration, 8 to 17 years old when Ninoy Aquino was assassinated, and 11 to 20 years old during Edsa in 1986).
There are the Edsa babies, born from 1977 to 1986, the oldest of whom were in primary school when Ninoy was shot, or in primary school when Cory Aquino left office. Politically, they came of age in the presidential elections of 1998 or 2004.
The Arroyo babies are those who have come of age in time for this election and are first-time voters, as well as those who came of age, politically speaking, in the aftermath of Edsa Dos, and voted for the first time in 2004. That is, those who are 18 to 31 years of age. The oldest were around 22, seniors or fresh graduates, when Edsa Dos took place. Perhaps they felt the disappointment of the post-Edsa Dos years (and the panic of Edsa Tres) most keenly – they didn’t go out into the streets during “Hello, Garci” or NBN-ZTE scandals. The middle includes those who were college freshmen during “Hello, Garci,” and who are 22 years old today, fresh graduates who may not have participated in rallies during “Hello, Garci” but who expressed indignation over the NBN-ZTE hearings.
This is a generation, then, that is basically aware of only two presidents: Estrada and Arroyo. Of this generation, a McCann study in 2007 said: “Teens are watching less TV, listening to less radio, reading less books and magazines, are doing less sports, interacting with friends face-to-face less frequently, and spending less money on traditional consumer items…. thanks to virtual connectivity technology like text messaging and the Internet.”
This doesn’t seem to be a generation that can be swayed one way or another by mass media, in that they probably pay attention to the news only in times of natural disaster but without keeping tabs on political developments. They are, however, a generation that may be swayed, particularly effectively, by advertising because when they do watch TV, the ads can touch them, particularly during prime time.
Manuel Villar, for example, during the whole of 2009 and in the first week of January, poured a tremendous amount of resources into ads targeted specifically at those 18 years old and above, belonging to the socio-economic bracket D and E. In 2009, he had 4,710 TV ads, of which 3,944 were 30-seconders. In the first week of January alone, he had 296 spots. More than half of the ads during both periods were broadcast during prime time, meaning more than 90 percent of viewers got to see his ads at least once a day and those seeing his ads twice or thrice a day in the high 80s.
Of course, saturating the airwaves cost a pretty penny: a conservative estimate puts Villar’s 2009 spending at P640 million, and during the first week of January at about P70 million or P240 million for the whole month (Teodoro, by one estimate spent P29.5 million, and Aquino P7.8 million).
What is equally important is that the Villar ads have not only been relentless, but methodical. And they are working. In a month, Pulse Asia reports that Aquino has gone down 8 points, Villar increased by 12, Estrada lost 7, while the other candidates remain basically unchanged with negligible levels of voter support.
At this point, the two leading contenders are now neck-and-neck going into the official starting line of the campaign. Since every election is about the future, the question then becomes, which of the two leading contenders can lay claim to the first-time voters, the Arroyo babies.
Let me close with two opinions from this age group. One who belongs to the older range of the spectrum puts it this way: “Erap was tried and found guilty, hence his current standing. We tolerated Gloria because nothing has been proven. Hence, same with Villar: nothing has been proven, and he says he cares for the poor, so, vote for him.” Another, more in the middle of this age group, says, “The numbers say that we have resigned and accepted corruption as a fact of life since we became very politically aware in Edsa Dos.”
But as for the tail enders, the first-time voters, their views are the most surprising of all. They are the least touched by the question of ethics as a factor in electing public officials.
This is the Philippines. You’ll be disappointed if you get your hopes up too high. Villar knows all too well that if you spend enough money on ads, endorsers, buy votes where needed, hire the best writers, etc…you’ll get what you want…
Thats why at the back of my mind, I have this nagging thought that Villar will win…
Its like this, we’re like the old Philippine eagle you find in a zoo of some sorts, it still looks majestic, fierce, and full of promise – but its just a shadow of what it once was…totally forgotten what it was to shed blood for love for God and country, some even despised the EDSAs…it knows that beyond its cage lies freedom, it can smell it, but it will not make any attempt to escape, even if you open the door.
Sadly, like most families, wives, women, children, here, they are willing to endure abusive fathers/husbands, whether its physical or psychological…how many women accept their husband’s physical abuse and infidelity? For as long as he takes care of the family, provides for the children, give the mother money for mahjong or ballroom dancing – he can have as many women as he like, he will come back to the house eventually anyway…
Thats the way most of us look for our leaders, we will endure the evil that we know because he can take care of us, we look for a strong, dominant, but generous, father (or mother) figure, and will not mind if he’s cruel, unfaithful, or without scruples, for as long as he can take care of us, he will do…
…we may have forgotten how it is to fend for ourselves, to fight the big fight, and will just follow the one throwing money around, because most of us are hungry? Not really, just lost…
…I hope I’m wrong…
Is there any data covering the preferences of men vs women? I went to Pulse Asia’s site but could not find any. I wonder what the differences are across gender.
Noynoy, if he wants to regain momentum has to work on increasing his margin with the D class and reducing his deficit with the E class. He needs to hone his message to the young worker demographic group who have the most to lose in the next six years. Sadly, he has little in common with them, since he hasn’t married or started a family yet or struggled much in his career.
We would suspect it has to do with the lack of understanding many of his handlers / supporters have of the grim economic reality of the country .
The Noynoy handlers of the Makati Business Club fame have been trying to recapture the “yellow ribbon” fever of the Cory days.
BUT the D and E groups, which represent 90% of the population,want something very desperately.They want deliverance from their abject poverty!
A very clear and concise analysis, Mr. Quezon. The truth of the matter is that there isn’t all that much to differentiate the leading candidates. Aside from a few details here and there, they are all for preserving the present social and economic status quo. The Philippine elite will be pleased with any one of them. And, as the elite goes, so goes the rest of the country.
As tough as the times are, the selection of a new president for the Philippines is easy. We obviously cannot put back into office a disgraced ex-president convicted and pardoned for PLUNDER.We cannot a elect a man who promises another 6 years of failed GMA polices.We cannot elect the richest candidate who could have serious conflicts of interest with the government because of his vast business empire.
As tough as the times are, the selection of a new president for the Philippines is easy. We obviously cannot put back into office a disgraced ex-president convicted and pardoned for PLUNDER.We cannot a elect a man who promises another 6 years of failed GMA polices.We cannot elect the richest candidate who could have serious conflicts of interest with the government because of his vast business empire.
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…but its easier to lay down and enjoy the rape…
Did the survey mention anything about anti-votes? Is it still significant? How many can be swayed?
I am part of that demographic – one who will vote for a second-or-third choice candidate to ensure one peron in the list doesn’t get elected. I will vote for one I don’t like that much even if it’s not my first choice.
How many people think like me?
All the candidates have serious conflict-of-interest issues. They all have their patrons, friends and backers to please.
Anyone who will deny this is either delusional or a hypocrite. 🙂
I am beginning to see the genius of Mar Roxas. Not only is his hold on the veep more or less secure, he would be in a far better position to become the next president if Manny Villar wins. This will surely lead to greater instability as the Opposition would have an extra-constitutional succession path ala Erap/GMA in EDSA Dos.
This is the first test of the Aquino candidacy. He has not had to handle himself under adversity before. The way he acquits himself under pressure will say a lot about his temperament and leadership capacity.
We can see that the first to abandon his cause are the D&E income groups. This is as much a legacy of the Aquino regime as anything for had the yellow revolution produced a more equitable society back then, there would be strong reason to believe that Noynoy could do it again. The good governance, rule of law and empowerment agenda just does not resonate with the masses because of broken promises made by the yellow forces.
It is ironic since the poor suffer the most from corruption, but they seem to care little for this as long as they get something in kind, like access to patronage. As the saying goes, “he who steals little is a thief; he who steals big is a king.”
Here’s something interesting:
1) in Philippine politics, ultra rich men like Yulo, and Danding were unlucky in elections. Of course, I know that two swallows do not make a summer. Perhaps Villar is smarter that these two.
2) During the past three months, Villar has outspent Unilever and Procter and Gamble’s advertising budget combined, according to some media people keeping tabs.
I wonder how much Noynoy has spent. All I know is whatever Noy has spent, he has not really spent it well. His ads do not define the message as clearly as Villar’s ads do. The latest Noy ad, the one with the rap trivializes the Presidency, in my opinion. Too entertaining with no substance.
The Noynoy ad does not resonate with the poor:
We would suspect it has to do with the lack of understanding many of his handlers / supporters have of the grim day-to-day economic reality of the country.
The Noynoy handlers of the Makati Business Club fame have been trying to recapture the “yellow ribbon” fever of the Cory days.
BUT the D and E groups, which represent 90% of the population, want something very,very desperately.They want deliverance from their abject poverty!
The Noonoy ads do not resonate with the poor because the noonoy team are not connected to the poor. Noonoy support are elitista. Nonoy handlers are elitista, and it shows in the ads’ failure to speak masa issues. So it sticks when people hear the derision “nonoy — born with silver spoon in mouth”.
Tapos na ang pakikiramay-period. Another 8-percent drop by Nonoy and Villar will be leading the surveys as election day gets closer and closer.
Cory worked harder to connect with the poor after she left malacanang. Too bad nonoy did not use those forays as preparatory work for his malacanang bid and he not go with her during the visits into the baranggays. Nonoy did not prepare for malacanang — nonoy is an accidental candidate.
I expect another sharp drop in Noynoy survey numbers because:
(1) Noynoy attractiveness to classes D/E very shallow. The outpouring was from Cory-death, not belief in Noynoy leadership. Pakikiramay sentiments waning very fast.
(2) OFW’s –8 million strong, and you have to double that to 16 million (practically all voting age) once you add spouses and adult dependents left in Pilipinas. Villar. OFW’s. The question — What has NoyNoy done? — obviously also resonates into “What has Noy done for OFW’s?†Whether or not you wonder what Villar has done or what Villar will do special for OFW’s, it remains true the only candidate who has staked out the OFW sector is Villar.
(3) Women-vote – the pro-Catholic women have no doubt about Villar’s position. MannyVillar had not hemmed nor hawwed about this.
Quick — what exactly again is NoyNoy’s position on unplanned pregnancies?
Mar Roxas was always the more substantial candidate for the Presidency, compared to Noynoy. He was, and continues to be, the better candidate. But, like the rest of the country, Mar was flabbergasted by Noynoy’s astronomical numbers when sympathy for Noynoy’s mother was at it’s peak. The country is probably discovering lately that its sympathy was misplaced and that there was never really anything substantial in Noynoy, save for being his mother’s son.
Mar probably did the smart thing by sliding down to No. 2. He now seems to be in a more secure position. While thecusponline speculates about “an extra-constitutional succession path ala Erap/GMA in EDSA Dos”, should both Villar and Roxas be elected, I believe Mar will be patient enough to wait for his turn at the Presidency. He is still relatively young, and he is used to waiting for his turn, even within his family.
As for Noynoy’s slide, perhaps some pundits may sum it up as Dolphy’s proven box-office prowess overcoming the silly and irritating antics of Kris Aquino.
Like I’ve said before once or twice. Noynoy may not be a bad guy, but the people around him are clueless, detestable middle class types who will never succeed in any level playing field against the majority of this country. Now that you’ve had a little cold splash of water, instead of engineering a country that suits your point of view, why not try opening your senses to what this country is really all about.
“2) OFW’s –8 million strong, and you have to double that to 16 million (practically all voting age) once you add spouses and adult dependents left in Pilipinas.”
Double check your factoids, in the last election less than 100,000 overseas voters cast their votes. If 8M can’t be bothered to vote overseas, they are not going home in May just to vote. (Besides, what are the chances of 8M OFWs coming home just to vote)
How many new OFWs registered this year? The numbers don’t even add up to 200,000.
At the moment OFW votes are NOT SIGNIFICANT simply because they have not even registered to vote.
“As tough as the times are, the selection of a new president for the Philippines is easy. We obviously cannot put back into office a disgraced ex-president convicted and pardoned for PLUNDER.We cannot a elect a man who promises another 6 years of failed GMA polices.We cannot elect the richest candidate who could have serious conflicts of interest with the government because of his vast business empire”-Ramrod
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I will not definitely vote for someone who is so ill prepared, no track record to show, incompetement and is just relying to his father and mother name to get elected as president
My vote goes to Gibo!
alden40 on Fri, 5th Feb 2010 8:26 am says:
“I will not definitely vote for someone who is so ill prepared, no track record to show, incompetement and is just relying to his father and mother name to get elected as president”
Not to mention his annoying sister.
will not definitely vote for someone who is so ill prepared, no track record to show, incompetement and is just relying to his father and mother name to get elected as president
My vote goes to Gibo!
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Gibo is prepared to continue Gloria’s work, thats for sure.
So far with all his credentials, during his stint as her henchman, he’s only shown one thing – that he can follow her script to the letter. Simple minded people can easily be ENAMORED, no STARSTRUCKED by his demeanor, but the smart ones can see through the bull… 🙂
…nice try Gibo, but as your name says, bigo ka rin…
Gibo is just a Gloria Arroyo stooge.
“Matalino” kuno, he doesn’t even know what corruption and abuse of power means.
“Competent” kuno, he let the ampatuans roam maguindanao when he obviously knew what was going on.
Buti nalang Gibo is running neck and neck with Villanueva.
Do not doubt for a moment that Villar is Ferdinand Marcos Jr (funny that he even has one of his overspending senatorial candidates with the same name). In 1969, Marcos Sr outspent Sergio Osmena 200-1.
Coming soon: endorsement from Crispulo “Jun” Icban’s Marcos avatar.
Let’s continue to put down Aquino so we can have a Marcos restoration pronto! Go New Society! Go Tatad! Go Nathanielsz! Go Imeldific!
A proNoyNoy site is having fun, posting TOP 10 at Noony’s expense, what’s going on?
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Top 10 Messages Left on Senator Noynoy Aquino’s Answering Machine After the Release of the Latest Pulse Asia Survey
No. 10: “Hi Noy. Korina here. Have you heard the news? Mar has been pulling away in the vice presidential surveys. I’m so very happy for my husband. Are you?â€
No. 9: “Senator, this is Mayen Austria. Alam ko pong may problema kayo ngayon sa survey ratings n’yo, pero wala na po talaga akong mapagsabihan ng problema ko sa aking boyfriend eh. Nagpalit na kasi ng number si James.â€
No. 7: “Mr. Senator, this is the SWS. Quiapo pala huh. Ayan ang napala mo!â€
No. 6: “Hi Noy. Si Korina ulit ‘to. Nasabi ko na ba sa ‘yo na ang taas-taas ng rating ngayon ni Mar? Boom-boom pow! Boom-boom pow!â€
tp professionalheckler wordpress – com/2010/02/04/even-now/
So Villar has caught up in the surveys and the official season has not yet started.
If Villar gets elected with his overselling there may be hell to pay if the economy tanks in his first two years.
He will get the blame. Hence GMA is also spending millions to convince everyone she had left behind a healthy ship of state.
This is a purely media war.
ramrod is right on the money.
i can see right thru gibo’s bs….
daming nabobobla. tsk,tsk,tsk
I don’t know, but Boo Chanco, a known Noynoy sympathizer, delivered a blistering critique of how Noynoy and his handlers have incompetently mismanaged Noynoy’s campaign. By Mr. Chanco’s account, Noynoy has managed to “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” and has rebuked Noynoy and his handlers for having a sense of entitlement and hubris. As if the Presidency was theirs for the asking.
Manolo Quezon once said that we should elect a President who is a “Great Teacher”, a “Great Nation-Builder” and a “Transformational Leader”. Noynoy is none of those. He has shown very little depth, thus he cannot be a great teacher. He has shown very little empathy with the vast majority of the country, being much more of the elite, eliminating him as a nation-builder. And, if he cannot even lead his own campaign nor put fire in the belly of his supporters, how can Noynoy even be considered a transformational leader by any stretch of the imagination?
Yes, Korina Sanchez must be having the last laugh.
^So who among the 10 candidates comes close to being a ‘great teacher’/’great nation builder’ and a ‘transformational leader’
Among the 10, who comes closest?
I have always maintained that the present crop of presidential candidates were a bunch of boy scouts. No bull in the china shop here except, perhaps, for Erap. All of them are “de buena familia” types, really. The boy next door. Nothing extraordinary or inspirational in any of them, but they won’t be the types who will rock the boat or do anything radical or profound.
The one who comes closest to having an interesting narrative, a Horatio Alger story, and the one who can claim to being one of the masses, having come from a poor family in Tondo, is Villar. Gibo, on the other hand, was, like Noynoy, born with a silver spoon in his mouth. The difference is that Gibo can at least claim academic excellence, having been a scholar and a bar topnotcher. And his intelligence and bearing are evident. Noynoy cannot claim intelligence, nor academic excellence. Nor does he have bearing nor presence. Wala syang dating. His only asset is that he is the son of his mother.
The difference is that Gibo can at least claim academic excellence, having been a scholar and a bar topnotcher. And his intelligence and bearing are evident.
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Everyone of us has “intelligence” so to speak, even the chimpanzees! Sheesh! We differ in “aptitude” Gibo apparently has “academic” aptitude but then again for people in the “real” world this does not equate to better performance, he might as well stayed in the university as a professor.
Case in point is his glaring incompetence as SND, he’s proven that he isn’t reliable already, just like an applicant who talks a lot, sells himself very well, but then you find out that its ALL he’s ever good at – SELLING HIMSELF.
Aptitude is defined either as “quickness and ease in learning” or “potential to acquire skill: a natural tendency to do something well”. If one does well in law school and tops the bar exams, it certainly indicates an aptitude. That person is more likely to do well in the real world than a slacker. That is something that people generally have great respect for.
Villar has demonstrated his aptitude for business. His track record as a working student, accountant, developer and entrepreneur are recognized and generally respected.
Noynoy hasn’t proven himself at anything. Not even at academics. There is no aptitude by which to gauge him by. He was a mediocre student and has an employment record that only betrays his dependence on his family and his mother’s crony’s patronage. Outside of the Tony Gonzalez companies and Hacienda Luisita, he never did anything.
maybe ramrod has a list of Noynoy accomplishments or aptitude or what what ever he got that makes noynoy deserving the position of presidency that we dont know.
Well every body knows that Noynoy has really has nothing much to show in his 9 years of public service compared to the rest of candidate.
So maybe he has a vision for the country or platforms…The people has been waiting until now.
How wala rin personality, wala rin ni katiting yata na charisma ni Ninoy wala namana hindi namabuana si Nonoy. Naunatlaha kay Kris.
Competency? Qualifications? political skills?
Sus ginoo ano na lang ba meron is Noynoy other than being the son of NinoY and Cory. Ah OK mabait sya….
Well there is the anti Gloria trick. But wait kumiatna eto last years election ah. and with no good results. ( Thanks to the senate performance of Escudero, Trillanes , Peter Cayatano, and himself) People have already realized that Bening antiGlori is not helping them.
I can understand the difficulty of the campaign staff to come up with something for Noynoy to recover the survey rating.
Geez from 60% Noynoy squandered all his big lead. …
Pano na kaya yan pag natalo si Noynoy. He dragged the name of Ninoy and Cory from the very start he decalared his candidacy. And most of his fans or would be voters actually like him becuase of Ninoy and Cory. Di kaya napaalaking dagok naman sa Pangalan ng kanyang mga magulang kung matalo sya.
Di kaya dapat mag back out na lang sya para maiwasan ang nakalaking kahihiyan.?
Public Speaking Skills, very low.
I don’t know which part of the planet these guys are living on, but Gibo’s most glaring achievement is the typhoon/flood debacle and the recent massacre in Maguindanao by the people he tolerated and armed. In my book he should be fired!
Villar’s name echoes in the business community as a cautionary tale, he stands for everything that should not be done and has crossed lines that should not have been crossed…he better win this election or he’s liable to get bankrupt (like his morals).
Some people will never see the obvious, most especially the ones who get paid for it…
Some people are just too dense or too childish to follow the trend of the discussion. Aptitude was the topic and, sorry to say Noynoy falls short because he has nothing to show for in this department.
There is no school for the presidency, but past achievements play a role in guiding the public on what to expect from a candidate. Impressive academic or entrepreneurial credentials help the public form an opinion of a candidate. They are not fool-proof, but they do count.
Barack Obama was a rather fresh, untested entity when he ran for the presidency. But he had impressive academic credentials. A brilliant Columbia University undergrad. Editor of the Harvard Law Review. Professor of Law at the University of Chicago. These offset apprehensions about his lack of executive experience. And, by the way, that is another point Boo Chanco makes about Noynoy’s campaing. Chanco writes:
“Some enthusiastic Noynoy supporters are comparing him to Obama but they are wrong. While it is true that Noynoy like Obama has attracted a lot of idealistic people hungry for change and clamoring for decency in public service, Obama had an excellent campaign organization that did things in a timely manner. They carefully monitored ever changing voter sentiment and responded quickly.”
Not to mention that Noynoy’s academic credentials and oratoric skills pale terribly in comparison to Obama’s.
Now, simply because some people have run out of arguments in trying to promote their candidate, they resort to lame accusations and name calling. That is not only unproductive, it betrays the pettiness of the person. And it is an old and tired campaign strategy that will no longer resound. Just like Noynoy trying to accuse Villar of being in collusion with Arroyo. It is a desperate strategy of trying to tar and feather the opponent. It won’t fly. Staunch Villar supporters like Peter Cayetano and Rolex Suplico have been fighting Arroyo tooth and nail for years. There’s no point in capitulating to the administration at this time, especially when they have the upper hand. And, as Suplico correctly points out, the Aquino and the Cojuanco family have been playing footsie with the administration all this time. Paul Aquino, Noynoy’s campaign strategist and uncle, is in the payroll of the administration, employed by PNOC. Lupita Kashiwahara is GMA’s close confidant and media adviser. Tessie Oreta is also employed by the administration, just like Tingting Cojuangco. And Peping Cojuangco was installed in the Philippine Olympic Committee by the administration. He is, by all accounts, an administration hack.
So who are the real paid hacks of Malacanang? Some mentally challenged individuals better look before they leap.
“Some people will never see the obvious, most especially the ones who get paid for it”…-ramrod
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There you go! the never ending cheap antics of the anti GMA. Which is really not working at all eversince it was used in the political discussion in blogworld.
but Gibo’s most glaring achievement is the typhoon/flood debacle and the recent massacre in Maguindanao by the people he tolerated and armed. ! -ramrod
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Has Noynoy did something during the typhoon /flood debacle that is something remarkable and will put him in better position over other candidates? What is his vision for the environment or platform to prevent flood and lessen the debacale. Natural disaster is very common in teh Philippines Does he have something for Disaster Risk Management.
And has Nonoy did something for the prevention of political lordism in the country. Has he doen something to prevent violence such as Ampatuan massacre? what is Noynoys plan to prevent or curb the poltical lodrdism in the Philippinas. How he is going to address peace and order problem in Mindanao?
Mukhang wala rin yatang binatbat si Noynoy in these departments.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20100207-251722/Fearless-meets-fair-in-PDI-presidential-forum
Hope this will be available for free circulation online. Want to watch it. The only debate format that sounds promising. I didn’t get where this will be held?
“Gibo can at least claim academic excellence”
I don’t know which subject in Harvard teaches SELECTIVE amnesia. It must take intelligence to understand why Gibo is with Gloria Arroyo. Maybe there are a different set of standards that apply. Very low standards.