After days of titillating leaks (a Striptease, Lito Banayo called it), the Mancao Affidavit (version 3.0) was finally leaked in full. The story since then has taken the usual twists and turns, most recently with the surreal Mancao to Lacson: ‘Sleep soundly,‘ .
Last Sunday, the Inquirer editorial, pondering Lacson and Estrada being on the defensive (for now), asked whether the best they could do was mount The ‘Becket defense‘.
The other day, I was struck by this passage from Chapter 1 of Eugenics and Other Evils by G.K. Chesterton:
The wisest thing in the world is to cry out before you are hurt. It is no good to cry out after you are hurt; especially after you are mortally hurt. People talk about the impatience of the populace; but sound historians know that most tyrannies have been possible because men moved too late. It is often necessary to resist a tyranny before it exists. It is no answer to say, with a distant optimism, that the scheme is only in the air. A blow from a hatchet can only be parried while it is in the air.
In sports terms: the best Defense is a good Offense. And this is something Bong Austero acknowledges but quickly dismisses in his column, Truisms:
The problem is that the senator seems to be reinforcing negative public perception. This is because, unfortunately, the gentleman has been protesting too much even when his name still has to be officially dragged into the controversy. Consequently, everyone I talked to is asking the same thing: Why is he making such a ruckus when he still has to be accused, formally, of the crime?
And oh, since we’re talking about truisms, there’s also that one about how offense is the best defense. It’s entirely possible that the senator, who lest we forget, used to be a military man and has expertise in intelligence work, knows something we don’t and is therefore taking matters into his own hands. Thus the senator has been quite vociferous in asserting that the whole thing is politically motivated and is a ploy to destroy his chances in 2010.
Unfortunately, we’re talking about double murder in this particular case. At the end of the day, the matter of political foul play should become irrelevant.
It is possible that Lacson’s enemies are milking the controversy to bits to advance some political agenda. It is possible that the senator is correct, this is another hatchet job from the usual suspects in Malacanang.
It is illegitimate political behavior, of course, but like I said, it is irrelevant in this particular case because the only question that needs to be answered is whether he is guilty or not of the crime he is allegedly being implicated in. So the senator’s whining about how the whole scheme is a ploy of the dirty tricks department of the Palace is really irrelevant.
Except if the Senator knows that the “only question that needs to be answered†will not be addressed! The affidavit was prepared, some of its contents leaked, then the entire affidavit leaked, and then affiant launched a protracted effort to keep himself from being deported. All this suggests doing maximum damage without risking a confrontation in open court, or the government having its hands tied by the sub judice rule.
The case for the prosecution, so to speak, was laid out by Antonio Carpo in a 2001 column for the Inquirer, Dacer’s killers: Who and why?, republished on the paper’s front page:
Returning to Lacson’s publicist, Lito Banayo, he points out,
While we focus on who ordered the killing of FVR’s publicist and Joe Almonte’s best friend Bubby Dacer, we forget all about Legacy and Jocjoc, Mercy’s merciful cover-ups, Abalos’ borjer joints, Jun Lozada’s calvary for truth, journalists and activists getting killed, jobs by the thousands getting lost each day, because Circus, Circus re-runs the Dacer-Corbito case ;
And meanwhile, the money bags are being filled up in Malacanang for charter change.
As I pointed out in my entry on the recent surveys, the surveys indicate that the President’s constituency would welcome -or at least shrug off- the cancellation or postponement of the 2010 elections, and that even if half or more of the country might oppose it, they remain divided among themselves with no leader capable of coalescing majority support.
Hence my column, Getting even, yesterday, which made reference to Tony Abaya’s recent column, Sinking fast (referring to the sinking popularity of the President even in bailiwick areas) where he writes,
I believe that Plan A is still operative, that the move to amend the Constitution to shift to the parliamentary system is still on. It is the simplest and quickest way for President Arroyo to constitutionally remain in power beyond 2010, whatever the surveys may say about how unpopular she is.
The Lakas-Kampi-NPC coalition has a stranglehold on the Lower House. They can and will no doubt revive moves to convene both Houses into a constituent assembly (ConAss) and attempt to vote as one body for charter change. Only the oppositionist Senate stands in the way and it will no doubt insist that the two bodies vote separately, in which case the issue will be deadlocked.
This matter will undoubtedly be raised to the Supreme Court, probably by mid-2009 or later. As long as Chief Justice Reynato Puno remains in his position, the Court can be relied on to block any such moves from the Lower House. But if Chief Justice Puno is removed, for whatever reason, then the way is clear for ChaCha and we will have GMA Forever, legally and constitutionally, no matter what the surveys say about how unpopular she is.
A variation of Plan A – let’s call it Plan A-1 – would be to postpone, not cancel, the May 2010 elections, by as few as two or three months, on the grounds of social unrest because of the continuing financial meltdown. By coincidence, Chief Justice Puno retires also in May 2010.
Postponing – not canceling – the elections by even as few as two or three months would open a window of opportunity for the Lakas-Kampi-NPC coalition to push for ChaCha through a ConAss since CJ Puno would be retiring by May 2010, making possible the appointment of a new Chief Justice friendlier to President Arroyo’s ambition to remain in power beyond 2010.
Abaya think its no coincidence the President’s been visiting the Second District of Pampanga a lot recently:
By the strangest coincidence, the March 19 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer (page 13) asks: “Will President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo run for Congress (in parliamentary elections) in 2010? In the last 22 days, President Arroyo visited Pampanga five times and four of those visits were all in her home province’s second district.”
The Inquirer listed down these visits, in each of which she was accompanied by medical and dental missions. Unmistakable sorties to hustle for votes. Feb. 24 in Floridablanca; March 4 in Guagua; March 9 in San Fernando; March 10, Lubao; March 18 in Lubao again, to celebrate the birthday of her bosom pal, Lilia Pineda, wife of alleged jueteng lord Bong Pineda. No doubt the Lord, the real Lord, guided her to these places;
Ana Marie Pamintuan’s column, Scenarios, puts down another possibility altogether, Plan B:
If the current buzz has any basis, some characters in the administration are again toying with the idea [of emergency rule]. I don’t know what makes them think Barack Obama’s administration would be more receptive to martial law than the Bush administration, unless some scenario – a major eruption of violence in Mindanao, for example – can be used as justification;
It’s a wild scenario, as far as Gen. Alexander Yano is concerned; no is also not worried about the possible appointment of Lt. Gen. Delfin Bangit as his replacement when he retires in June.
Though his appointment will mean that senior officers will be bypassed, among them Army chief Lt. Gen. Victor Ibrado and chief of the directorial staff Lt. Gen. Rodrigo Maclang;
Teodoro’s support is key to the imposition of martial law, and he doesn’t look like the type who will go along with it, especially if the reason is contrived as it was in 1972.
But what if Teodoro is replaced by someone more pliable, like a particular retired military officer who has reportedly been eyeing the post for some time?;
Conspiracy buffs are warning that if Teodoro quits around May or June and the right men are installed in the top defense and military posts, then the groundwork is being laid for martial law.
Only time will tell how wild this scenario is.
Well, what we do know is that the government is preparing to roll out a Moral Renewal Extravaganza come May 14. Can you hear it now?
But besides that -because, if there’s one thing we know for sure by now, it’s that the President never puts all her eggs in one basket- providing for the future continues apace.
And so there’s this story: GMA’s son to get new House district. Simply put,
The House is proposing to split Arroyo’s constituency into two districts.
This is obviously in anticipation of the widely expected congressional candidacy of Budget Secretary Rolando Andaya Jr. in next year’s elections.
Andaya was representative of Camarines Sur’s first district for nearly three terms or nine years before joining the President’s Cabinet. His late father, Rolando Andaya, represented the district for three terms.
If the budget chief decides to reclaim his House seat, Rep. Arroyo could run in the proposed new district.
Second-district Rep. Luis Villafuerte, who is president of Mrs. Arroyo’s Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino (Kampi) party, authored the bill dividing the Andayas’ bailiwick into two districts.
The additional district would include two of Villafuerte’s towns.
Anyway, there will be more on this and other proposals for new House districts on tonight’s Explainer.
Meanwhile, some articles that I’ve been meaning to link to, concerning the current economic crisis. The attempt to understand what caused the current global economic downturn continues apace. Alice Poon, writing in the Asia Sentinel, points to Alex Salmon’s Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street, and says that while the article is rather difficult to understand, it makes the best attempt so far, to explain things in layman’s terms.
Peter Gowan, writing in The New Left Review, argues that what actually happened was that “A New Wall Street System” emerged over the past quarter century; and that this is what collapsed, in a manner no one could quite comprehend because the new system was, well, so very new (hat tip: Caffeinesparks).
As things continue to unravel, looking back to the Great Depression continues to be fashionable; see the Bloomberg special, 1930s Revisited: Depression dynamic takes hold on markets, banks. You hear people referring, more and more, to the late John Kenneth Galbraith’s 1955 work, The Great Crash: 1929 (see excerpts from the book). His son, James Galbraith, has taken a critical attitude towards the new American administration. See James Galbraith: Obama Isn’t Doing Enough to Solve the Financial Crisis .
The Left, after an initial bout of Schadenfreude, has taken to asking whether it can step in the political and moral vacuum created by the implosion of Capitalism. The venerable The Nation conducted a symposium, “Reimagining Socialism”. Barbara Ehrenreich and Bill Fletcher Jr. in Rising to the Occasion think that Capitalism might possibly not survive this latest crisis, but that Socialism isn’t equipped, at present, with a plan for taking up the slack. Robert Pollin in Be Utopian: Demand the Realistic, says Socialism will take time to come up with relevant solutions;
Perhaps most controversially, Alice Solnit argues in The Revolution Has Already Occurred , that the Left must embrace the small-is-beautiful mode, for it is in co-ops and even bicycle lanes that the Revolution has taken place; and instead of obsessing over the State, the Left be more Anarchist in its approach.
Tariq Ali in Capitalism’s Deadly Logic , and Immanuel Wallerstein in Follow Brazil’s Example , both think the answers are present in Latin America and the revival of the Left there.
Non-Left blogger big mango argues, instead, for Re-imagining Capitalism.
Domestically, the largest faction of the Left seems more interested in doctrinal purity. An interesting reading is Jose Ma. Sison’s lecture, Anti-revisionist struggle and cultural revolution: Consequence to the CPP , where he rejects criticisms of Stalinism and reaffirms the enduring relevance of Mao’s Cultural Revolution.
Which brings me to a U.P. Professor, Rene Ofreneo, and his observations regarding RP’s deepening Job crisis:
Clearly, the job situation is bad before the present global recession. This can only grow worse under the lengthening shadows of a global economy moving south.
This is not difficult to comprehend given the relative openness of the Philippine economy and its high dependence on the global economy. In particular, the following job “winners” are highly vulnerable:
* Deployment of OFWs and OFW remittances
* Remittance-based industries, e.g., distribution, real estate, education, etc.
* Electronics exports
* Nontraditional agricultural exports
* CC-BPO services
* Tourism
* ODA-funded infrastructure projects, and
* Mining, biofuels
All the above are likely to decline. The decline of some winners will be dramatic, such as what is happening in the electronics. There are numerous “downsizing” programs being carried out by investors-locators in the 40 or so private industrial parks, four export processing zones (Baguio, Bataan, Cavite and Cebu) and the two special economic zones (Clark and Subic). The decline in others will be less dramatic, mainly in the form of slowdown of growth in demand as what is happening in the CC-BPO industries.
In the case of the OFW sector, the picture appears contradictory – decline in the demand for OFWs doing home care (e.g., Hong Kong and Singapore) and low-end factory work (e.g., Taiwan and South Korea) but continuing high demand for specialized OFW services, e.g., welding and designing services (due partly to the infrastructure-based stimulus packages in countries in recession) and health care (due to the requirements of aging populations in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries).
On the whole, however, the Philippine employment crisis as outlined earlier is now being aggravated by the global crisis, with the above winners experiencing either a sharp decline or a slowdown in demand. On the other hand, the weak sectors of the economy -domestic industry and domestic agriculture-are likely to continue to languish under trade liberalization, smuggling, neglect, high cost of doing business/farming, CARP conflicts and so on.
Will unemployment then go up? Not necessarily. In the 1983-85 Philippine economic depression, most of the displaced formals simply swelled the informals in the urban and rural areas. Somehow, low-wage earners must find ways to survive and cope with the requirements of daily living. In this context, one challenge for labor officials is how to monitor the deteriorating quality of jobs for many Filipinos. Another challenge is how to measure real displacement rates – at home and overseas – given the tendency of employers to rely mainly on short-term hiring arrangements. Both the DOLE and the National Statistics Office are unable to record the number of employees who are not formally “terminated” but whose services are simply not renewed.
This ties in, in a way, with my thoughts on our society’s coping mechanisms when a crisis takes place. And this suggests that whether it’s the Left, expecting its ranks to swell, or government officials expecting -even fomenting- civil unrest to justify emergency rule, or mainstream politicians expecting the economic crisis to sway the voting population one way or another, that all may be disappointed.
Update: Rep. Mikey Arroyo: Charter change through con-ass still alive.
…i might have said this before..i’ll say this again… people forget history, blinded by hubris, power, and greed… more importantly, forget the G_D-factor. one day, they’ll wake up in their beds and it’s not in paoay, as marcos allegedly claimed he thought… i see what de quiroz sees. it’s deja vu circa february 1986, poetic justice emerging once more… and it’s a political tsunami for some people…my suggestion: resist it at their own peril. Divine justice via vox populi grinds exceedingly fine….they just have to learn from history, if they have eyes to see… but first, touch base with humus.
things are getting exciting as arroyo’s term nears its finish. Napakaraming scenarios na pinapalitaw.
Sa huli, tao pa rin ang kawawa dahil hilong hilo na sa kung anu-anong nangyayari.
GMA won’t win in Pampanga. Pampanga is now a Catholic Church bailiwick, as evidenced by the victory of Panlilio.
We’re not far-rightists anymore (supporter of Spanish colonial government-“3 Pampangos + 1 Spanish=4 Spanish”, Macabebe Scout Dugong Aso’s American Bulldogs, nor Japanese-ass kissing Macapili traitors) nor are we leftists either (Hukbalahap, Luis Taruc, Satur Ocampo represent!).
We’re just, right of right of center church-going Filipinos who like our sisig and oppose abortion or any form of birth control and Muslims. So far GMA has done a good job on ball counts.
But that still won’t win the hearts and minds of moral Kapampangans as she has blatantly lied on that tape we all heard. Lying is against one the ten commandments (I think it might be the 7th, or 6th commandment. I’m not really sure). If she goes to a confessional and repent this we might give her a chance. So being a right of centre Kapampangan is still not enough to win in this Vatican heartland called Central Luzon. You have to be down and hardcore with the Catholishizzle Churchizzle you know whamsayin?
Gloria and Jose Pidal:
The ultimate TRUTH:
“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”
Abraham Lincoln
sabi na nga ba pag tatakbo si andaya for congress,dadagdagan ng distrito.
I am linking a post by John Marzan on Philippine Politics 2010 for some of the missing angles on the Dacer-Corbito case.
A Few Things You Might Find Interesting About the Bubby Dacer Case
The more recent ones from John:
A Ping on the Radar
Omissions by ABS-CBN
ah, mukhang lumilinaw na ang malabo, heheh.
On big mango’s blog about “Re-Imagining Capitalism†I was struck by parallels between what Albert Einstein wrote 60 years ago and what Obama says about the culture of short-sighted greed that creates harmful boom-and-bust cycles.
• “The profit motive, in conjunction with competition among capitalists, is responsible for an instability in the accumulation and utilization of capital which leads to increasingly severe depressions.â€
• “The economic anarchy of capitalist society as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of the evil.â€
• “We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive.â€
– Albert Einstein, May 1949
• “The United States can’t continue with endless cycles of bubble and bust. We must build a new foundation for future economic growth.â€
• “We need to focus on the creation of lasting wealth, not the illusion of prosperity, which hurts us all in the end.â€
– Barack Obama, March 2009
“Going to a constitutional debate is really only going to distract us from what we need to do to survive and meet the challenges of the global uncertainty.” Gloria Arroyo(Dec.7.2001)
Not only coping mechanisms, but true survivor instincts, I must say.
Well, what do expect of a people who’d been under three different colonial masters in its modern history. And then inflict upon them the suffering from tyrant landlords and oligarchs since day one of their statehood..
Voila, you have the perfect overseas worker: hard-working patient, and adaptable.
The ultimate survivor: Pinoy.
Manolo, thanks for very well laid out analysis.
The numero uno power holder had prepared various moves to the best plot of power retention by chacha down to the least desirable diminished local government capacity as a niche, just in case.
Apart from the fact that she had all appointees in the SC with the lone chief justice coming to retirement, she also ensured as her current offensive demonstrates to neutralize a highly dangerous political enemy in Lacson the architect of several turned up witnesses in failed investigations targeting the first family. This is to defang the poisonous snake that has the ability to strike back.
One cannot underestimate a person, like a short Napoleon Bonaparte she is feisty in battle and strategy.
Her most trusted soldier is Romeo Prestoza who was her primary protector as PSG commander, now a major general and head of military intelligence ISAFP. He turned Mancao (Lacson’s TF Luzon chief) into a state witness in exchange for reinstatement in the police force or settlement of Mancao’s family to Singapore.
Hi, Sir Manolo,
I had filed this comment in your Nicole article, and I think, it should be here. Hence, if the comment there was out of place then please deleted it.
2010 RP Elections:Brains without bodies – H.Keh-Mr. Palengke-Bangon RP-CJ Puno
http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/columns/view/20090330-196943/Brains-without-bodies-1
The Long View Brains without bodies (1) – By Manuel L. Quezon III Philippine Daily Inquirer 03/30/2009
“LAST WEEK I suggested that when confronted with people who want to be president, we should ask, Who has endorsed their candidacy? Candidates presenting themselves for the presidency are like brains, asking to be elected to steer the ship of state, but who don’t have bodies: how then, can they be expected to grasp the tiller? By telepathy? As brains, they may be brimming over with ideas; they may have access to vast sums of cash; but for a country that expects presidents to solve problems, and with the least pain for the electorate, the whole current setup is a recipe for frustration and disillusionment.The more established politicians will therefore validate their candidacies by having themselves proclaimed official candidates of whatever political party they happen to belong to by the time the official campaign period starts. And 2010 presents it with the dilemma of a body about to lose its brain. (To be continued)”
Of all the no-nonsense bloggers-journalists I had felt with my EYE, I found Mr. Manolo Quezon III’s microscopic surgery of Philippine 2010 elections or No-El closer to reality. He writes:
The Palace strikes back and other scenarios – 03/24/09
http://blogs.inquirer.net/current/2009/03/24/the-palace-strikes-back-and-other-scenarios/
“xxx the President never puts all her eggs in one basket- providing for the future continues apace.”
Mr. Quezon III profoundly disects the nonsense, crab mentality and “Politics of Profit” towards 2010. For psychics and philosophers alike, Mr. Quezon accurately
predicted the scenario. Howevever, I desire to add his PUNDITs:
many candidates who do not have a damn chance or 2 cents to win in the tainted SWS, Pulse Asia and other hungry-greedy 2010 surveys, would take financial gains-profits-leverage, by FLOATERS.
If Gilbert Teodoro and Mr. Noli de Castro had lost the fortune-teller’s dire warnings of high blood politics WINNA-BEElity, then, the Palace is floating desperate Trial de Novo personae like CJ Puno, Panlilio, Villanueva, El Sha-Velarde, etc. (Oh, no, I am not mistaken, since politics is the science of the weird and impossible magic, of tricks and treats, remember Dadgad-Bawas?).
The opposition, on the other hand, had consulted many astrologers, UP and Ateneo political scientists, and they found that even in SWS tainted survey, ERAP-Jinggoy-Benay or Binay had been CURSED in political history, more than having been enchanted by a newly introduced SPELL by the Angel of Death, rather than the so-called “Kiss of Death” many termed Dwendelita of the Palace.
I had lectured to a Retinal Detachment patient who visited me last saturday. This disease has no viable and practical medical remedy until today. Ex-Mayor Macario
Asistio’s wife had this and RD almost blinded her. But the wealthy patient said his eye had partly recovered due to hand heat healing.
Presidential and VP wanna-bees, including early worms and birds, are consulting not only fortune tellers, PR magicians, Monasterio de Sta. Clara in Katipunan, political pundits,
astrologers and even Feng shui masters, to shoot the stars.
But Honoble Destiny had already decided who will be the 15th President/Prime Minister or the No-El dictator/tress. Retinal detachment in politics, is paranoia, in one word.
Many wanna-bees are Detached from the film of the science of politics: politics which was earlier defined by Plato and Socrates. Consider these:
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/03/30/09/chiz-mar-big-gainers-sws-survey
Chiz, Mar big gainers in SWS survey
TOP RECOMMENDED SUCCESSORS TO PRESIDENT ARROYO
(SWS SURVEY, February 20-23, 2009)
Vice-President Noli De Castro 27%
Sen. Manuel Villar 26%
Sen. Loren Legarda 25%
Sen. Francis Escudero 23%
Sen. Mar Roxas 15%
Sen. Panfilo Lacson 14%
Former Pres. Joseph Estrada 13%
Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago 4%
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20090330-196935/House-seat-is-Arroyo-option-after-2010JDV
House seat is Arroyo option after 2010–JDV – Fallback position to escape lawsuits
By Gil C. Cabacungan Jr. Philippine Daily Inquirer 03/30/2009
MANILA, Philippines—President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo could run for a congressional seat in her home province of Pampanga if efforts to amend the Constitution through a House-instigated constituent assembly (Con-ass) fail. “Congress is her fallback position in the event that Con-ass does not succeed. A congressional seat will buy her immunity from all suits,†said Pangasinan Rep. Jose de Venecia Jr. in a phone interview.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/topstories/topstories/view/20090329-196849/Chief-Justice-pressed-to-run-for-president
Chief Justice pressed to run for president By Joey A. Gabieta Inquirer Visayas 03/29/2009
TACLOBAN CITY, Philippines – A group led by a former justice undersecretary is pressing Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno to run for president in 2010, despite his earlier pronouncement that he would not enter the political ring.
Jose Calida, the national president and founder of the Movement to Elect Non-Trapos (MEN), said no one among the presidential aspirants could come close to Puno in terms of honesty and integrity.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20090330-196972/Roxas-Panlilio-for-2010-talks-ongoing
ACTIVIST PRIEST SAYS Roxas-Panlilio for 2010 talks ongoing By Allison Lopez Philippine Daily Inquirer 03/30/2009
MANILA, Philippines—(UPDATE) The tandem of Sen. Manuel Roxas II and Pampanga Gov. Eddie Panlilio for the 2010 presidential elections is being explored, an activist priest said Monday.
In an interview at the Makati City Hall, Fr. Robert Reyes, who is part of the movement supporting the bid of Panlilio and Isabela Gov. Grace Padaca, said the priest-turned-governor met with Roxas last week.
“Anything is possible if we talk eh. Roxas-Panlilio, Roxas-Padaca… Among Ed is willing to let go of the possibility of running for president. Kasi kung makikita sa discernment, sa pag-uusap (If we see it through discernment, through discussions…) Grace Padaca would not want me to say this pero (but it could be) Padaca for president, Panlilio for vice. Or Among Ed steps aside, Padaca for president, Mar Roxas for vice. Anything is possible now,” he said.
Reyes said Kaya Natin (We Can) convenor Harvey Keh invited the Liberal Party senator to join the “primaries” of their group.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20090328-196732/Bro-Eddie-launches-new-party
Bro. Eddie launches new party
By Dona Pazzibugan Philippine Daily Inquirer 03/28/2009
MANILA, Philippines—In a move seen as a launch for his second go for the presidency, Jesus is Lord evangelist Eduardo “Brother Eddie†Villanueva has reinvented his 2004 political party Bangon Pilipinas party into a bigger national movement.
Villanueva led the multi-media launch of the new “Bagong Pilipinas, Bagong Pilipino†movement at the Araneta Coliseum, which was filled with JIL followers who came in yellow shirts. Many brought their entire families, including small children, with them.
The Prophet’s Written and Published Prophecy of PGMA’s battle in political history.
Prefatory (Analysis):
A week before the 1992 elections, I had decided to predict the winner. I used the spanish card of Bulacan 40 years card reader Lola Nina Cuento Cruz: I accurately predicted that Ramos will SIT, while M. Santiago will win the counting, or rather be UNdestined due to the dwarve’s curse, remember her accident before the elections, a dire Omen; the painful alleged suicide or gun … of A.R. Santiago …
On Good Friday of 1998, I predicted at San Juanico Bridge the election and fall of ERAP:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118999288641229392.html?mod=home_law_more_news
“During the hearing, Mr. Floro revealed his contact with his elves. He also shared with the judges that Luis predicted that then-Philippine President Joseph Estrada would be ousted from office; Mr. Estrada was forced from power by a popular revolt two years later in 2001 and was sentenced last week to life in prison for corruption.”
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=30&art_id=26375&sid=9641493&con_type=3
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_print.asp?art_id=26375&sid=9641493
“Florentino says he predicted Joseph “Erap” Estrada’s presidential downfall and prayed that present incumbent Gloria Macapagal Arroyo would survive her endless political battles. Looking ahead, he reckons Arroyo’s power will end soon and the nation will suffer as a result.”
EVALUATION:
Many pundits did complicate the 2010 election or No-El scenario. I will make it so simple for you, I will lay down on your table my cards. Of course, like before, Deus Ex Machina, like medical surgery and hospital tours of both PGMA, FG, Abalos, R. Gonzalez, the 5 S.C. mystic fires … may MAKE the elections more interesting aside from Dagdag-bawas IT in e-Voting.
First, how can PGMA, which I predicted since 2004 to fall but will survive the fall until … be legally free from tons of Ombudsman-Sandiganbayan prosecution-persecutions? I will not answer this, since the legal answer is so complicated, but boils down to the Supreme Court Justices’ PENs later on. Yes, she appointed all of them, but will these S.C. Justices put FINIS to PGMA nightmares to be free from prosecution, JAIL and exile, plus her asset’s sequestration by hungry Vendetta-opposition? I will not answer this, since, I will be guilty of speculation and NO BASIS objections.
Second, PGMA has plan B and C with magic/s. In 2001, I sat beside Erap and cursed Sanlakas Cong. JV Bautista at Veterans; I told Erap that he will be judicially vindicated but not in political history.
In 2002, I predicted in writing in more than 20 SC pleadings that PGMA will be ousted IN TIME, the physical hurting will coincide with her irrevesible downfall.
But my requested audience with FPJ was blocked by the Oreta-Soto barriers. So, a week before the elections, I predicted before Justice Regino C. Hermosisima, Jr. that despite all prophecies, PGMA will survive her ordeal, lest my case be not decided. So, my case was, by Justice Minita Viray Chico-Nazario, on April 7, 2006. Thus, in exchange, I had flooded the internet with the prophecy fed to WSJ and Hong Kong’s The Standard per ace journalists Mr. James Hookway and Mr. Sam Chambers, respectively, regarding PGMA’s survival at the very least IN TIME: her respite.
Third, all are afraid of Chiz Escudero.
Fourth, who will beat Chiz? So, Manolo Quezon accurately answered this: Brains, Moneys, but no bodies.
Questions:
I will skip Villar on this, since, I had already written about him in the prior PinoyExchange topics.
1) Remember that politics is just a repetition of political history. Will an unmarried person be a Philippine President? Mar Roxas had been flooded with noisy or very loud gossips on sexuality (Mother’s child) and this is material in the making of a President. He has all the resources, machinery, money and of course followers. The US Think Tank correctly reported that Mr. Palengke is a reality-oriented politician. He will not dive in the pool if he cannot float in the surverys. How can Roxas erase the cursed destiny of Gerry? Let us leave it at that.
2) If Noli and Gilbert cannot win, can CJ Puno, Among Ed-Padaca-Villanueva-Velarde be used as floaters or rather POLITICS of PROFIT by MaDISKARTE Harvey Keh, to at the very least SUBTRACT votes from Chiz and the other top winna-BEEs?
Well, in floods of emails, of which I was a victim, I had warned Keh not to Spam my email. Bluntly, I replied to Keh’s email, that I cannot predict or help Among-Kaya natin to be President, since I hate politics of Profit or magic.
I had watched in ANC how Mr. Ricky Carandang cross-examined or rather rattled Keh.
Keh, which I call as MaDiscarte is off-reality, but profit oriented. Mr. Carandang at point blank shot Key with a fatal question: why did Kaya Natin fail to reach Classes C and D. Evading Carandang, Keh pondered and replied off-tanget.
Unmindful of the Omnibus Elections Penal provisions of suggesting moneys-pledges before the campain period, Keh had been flooding the internet with boastings about OFWs and Filipino monetary pledges to support Kaya Natin.
But Villanueva cannot be JOKED. Bro. Eddie smashed Keh’s Kaya Natin, accusing it as having pre-BAKED in favor of Among Ed (mixed with Padaca, Villanueva, Puno, etc. of course, with the money and machinery of Mr. Palengke, if the latter will not float in the SWS swimming pool). Keh’s Discarte tried a xerox copy-cat of the US primaries. But it was cheaply thrown in the can by no-nonsense traPOS.
Who will invest money in Keh’s novo-politics, which has no chance of WinaBEElity. Miracle? It only happens in Rome, which has a final say on who will be Saints per 2 miracles.
If President Panlilio and VP Padaca will take their twin oaths of offices in 2010, will Exec. Sec. and Acting BIR-CUSTOMs Com. Harvey Key accept Classes D, E, and my resume to be appointed by Among Ed, even as clerk of the Key Curt?
Change the Film: Will Dabu vs Guiao and almost all Pampanga Mayor’s scenario repeat the same game in the Panlilio’s 2010 adminstration? I do not want to glorify Arch. Oscar V. Cruz’ tirades or rather bitter pills, but I am sure, I will never ever get a job is Keh reigns, so, this Good Friday, I only have one option: to recite their first names side by side with the most powerful biblical Curse per Psalms 109/73, noon time and 3pm.
IN FINE, we are all excited on Monday the 13th when Congress opens with the Decoy and Real McCoy Resolutions of Nograles and Villafuerte. Remember that the Lambino Initiative lost by just one S.C. vote. Now, with vengeance, the full force of PGMA’s S.C. appointed Justices will face the PGMA Enrile Senate with gusto on CHA-cha. With bated breath, Chiz Escudero, who hopes to be an Obama mania, might be loosing steam. This is politics!
Question: Is Judge Floro’s WSJ and The Standard prophecy of PGMA’s survival – stretch down the finish pay off wire in 2010 horse race?
hi po…im lilia andaya from masbate tnk u for running to congress hope na matulungan u po sa skul ko…godbless!