Before…
…And after.
Ding Gagelonia’s recent entry in his blog, At Midfield, got me thinking. As well as some comments by readers for me to consider their view that there’s not enough time to pursue Charter Change (I think there is).
But both got me to reflect, once again, on this: Timing is everything in politics, the saying goes. Yesterday’s Inquirer editorial points to the political timing of oil price rollbacks, for example.
You can calculate your moves to be timed in such a manner as to throw your opponents off-kilter. You determine the timing of events.
Or you can time your moves to coincide or take advantage of events no one could preordained, but which you foresaw as being predetermined, that is, they would occur sooner or later, and once they take place, better-prepared, you can seize the moment.
Time is seasonal; for example, in terms of political time, impeachment has its season and other things, like Charter Change, have their own season.
What happens when two seasons coincide or their timing seems to operate at cross-purposes to each other.
After all, the only thing that can seriously derail the marshaling of forces for Charter Change is impeachment. Or is it?
What if you put it another way, the other way around? The only thing that can derail the marshaling of forces for impeachment is Charter Change.
The only checkmate on the President is impeachment, not the official end of her term; for her term expiring is at best, a moveable goal-post (create a new job, and the expiration of your term isn’t consequential; retiring isn’t a problem if besides an obliging Ombudsman and a friendly Supreme Court, you have a new President you swung the election to). Only impeachment means sudden death, politically. And things can happen very fast, when people see a check mate unfolding, for capitalizing on it requires only a committed and nimble minority with its eye on the prize.
The long, hard slog of trying to exact accountability through constitutional means since it was first attempted in 2005 has only served to sap the will of those attempting it and makes cynical those who favor it as a means of replacing a president above all others. As Cocoy wrote in The Political Machinery and Infrastructure Of President Arroyo:
But I submit, to you my dear readers, that the cases against President Gloria Arroyo, are strong, very strong, based on command responsibility, based on misappropriated funds, and so much more, but the smoking gun has never been found, except for one, which I mention in the next paragraph. Call it genius, I say it’s something else. You decide. And even when it led straight to the top, it has had to be based on testimony, for example, that of Romulo Neri. He told her about the alleged bribe attempt, she confirmed her knowledge about the NBN deal, in no less than on a radio show, but still, nothing came about.
Even, when the strongest case, election fraud, was brought to The Senate, in the whirlwind that we now know as The Garci Tapes, we still could not deliver a death sentence to this Administration, it was not only a failure of our government, and all those involved, but it was the death of the trust that our people had in this government.
President Gloria Arroyo, blame her all you want, because I certainly do, has built up so many safeguards, has made the political moves, and has the deep political team, and bench, that even in such a time in which Joc Joc Bolante is now testifying before The Senate, she may be a bit nervous, but in the end, she has to know, her machinery, and her political infrastructure will shield her from any form of accountability. Each and every time, she has been cleared, either by witnesses, by government institutions, or by providing another fall guy to take the fall.
It’s a sad realization. That even, while, I am sick to my stomach, watching the Joc Joc hearings, that, nothing seems be coming out of it, that it is important that The Filipino People realize, just as when Neri testified, the messed up system of procurement, appropriation, project planning, etc, that our nation is in.
But, when people close their eyes to such anomalies, declare a saint out of this woman, I take notice, and I take offense, because such denial, such defense, it can no longer can be based on logical reason, but on a mere partisan reaction.
So, we are in a quandry, the obviousness of the whole affair, this affair that we call The Arroyo Administration, as to how to hold her responsible. But we have not the political climate to exact the punishment that is due to her. The strongest hard evidence, The Hello Garci tapes, led to nothing, but a now popular term - “Noted”.
Hard evidence is there, I say, but even putting this aside, the most damning is when you take the bulk of these anomalies, add on to it human rights violations, kidnappings during this regime, and now a resurgent Fertilizer Fund Scam investigation, these all scream Arroyo, and political will is strong to bring her to account, but the numbers, however, and the machinery sides with Arroyo.
In light of the above, let me propose, further, that the only people really in a position to put teeth in the proceedings, are not her long-standing foes, but her more recent foes: those who were once very close allies and partook of presidential plenty during the happy days of old. And who was closer than Jose de Venecia, Jr.? Arguably three individuals spelled the difference between a breathing spell and a second wind, politically, and resignation and exile in 2005. They were: Fidel V. Ramos, Jose de Venecia, Jr., and Gaudencio Cardinal Rosales, Archbishop of Manila.
FVR and JDV thought they’d saved the President in exchange for her bowing out gracefully by means of a transitional parliamentary being put in place by 2006. By the time that deadline rolled around, FVR had been publicly sidelined in his own party; the Speaker had been stalled by a last gasp of People Power summoned by the Catholic hierarchy in December, 2006. So in 2007 mopping-up operations took place courtesy of the NBN-ZTE controversy which led to de Venecia’s being deposed.
Every time de Venecia previously showed signs of spilling the beans, the Palace ferociously asserted there were no beans to spill at all; failing that, that they would be self-incriminating beans, too; and failing that, that the beans ought to be spilled “in the proper forum,” which the Palace of course controlled. In other words, a thick smokescreen is laid down, as the Palace checks and re-checks the chain of command, counts votes in the House, summons and obtains manifestos of support from governors and mayors, sends emissaries with sweeteners to the bishops, puts together cabinet and other clusters to game out scenarios, and so forth.
A smokescreen buys time, and time allows you to look for opportunities. Laying down that smokescreen -with its great, rolling clouds of appeals to “objectivity,” to “sobriety,” for “stability,” and the other noxious rhetorical vapors of the official media machine, has been perfected over time, as Write Rhythm recently pointed out, showing how the institution most people rely on to get their news and comprehend the topsy-turvy world of politics, can be gamed:
Aside from the number of issues to report about this administration, The Age of Gloria is a challenging time for Filipino journalists because of another characteristic of this era. The Age of Gloria… okay let’s be more specific, Gloria is known for her strategy of divert and obfuscate. Aside from diverting funds, Gloria is a master of diverting the public’s attention to another issue (i.e. usually the economy, national unity, etc.), thereby obfuscating the original issue by bombarding people with one issue after another. Unfortunately, this has worked to her advantage as the media and civil society try to keep up with the many issues tied to her.
The difficulty in setting the agenda is that the Philippine media has to consider both what is new and timely, and what is a matter of public interest. Sometimes, the two do not go together. especially with the administration’s expertise of burying issues in the past. Sometimes, they do but not to an extent that the choice is clear. And oftentimes, one has to yield to yet another consideration of choosing the other, sexier stories.
Let me suggest that there apparently may have been political rhyme and reason to de Venecia’s loudly proclaiming he’d spill the beans, but stepping back or never letting more than a stray little bean escape -a mere hint of the pork and beans he wanted to spill. He is by temperament and instinct, I think everyone agrees, a consensus-builder, an operator, not the kind who leads cavalry charges. It certainly exasperated those egging him on to come out swinging. Of course even as people thought they were taking the measure of the man, whether from the ranks of the Palace or the various factions of the opposition, he was taking their measure, too. Having been in politics longer than most of them, it’s entirely possible he held his peace and did his Dopey act to buy time and fend off the more aggressive among those importuning him to weigh in.
If you are up against a numerically and logistically superior enemy, you do not make a frontal attack at the time and place chosen by that enemy. If the spider and the fly had been politicians, the spider would have said “bring it to the proper forum!” instead of “welcome to my parlor.”
So what do you do, if you are, in Sergio Osmena Jr.’s words, “outgunned, outgooned, and outgold”? You probe for weaknesses. You foster, in the superior enemy, a sense of its overwhelming superiority, so that the enemy begins to believe its own propaganda.
You also marshal your own forces, whatever they might be, and do what you do best: build or re-build alliances.
Both take time, and craft, not boldness; or more craftiness, at least in private, and less boldness, at least in public. Both require biding your time so you don’t play entirely according to the game plan of the enemy.
Still, while things can happen pretty fast, plots require time to be hatched. One major strength of any administration is its access to information, aided by our national propensity to boast and gossip.
For months now, it’s been talked about that de Venecia consulted other disgruntled elders, such as Fidel V. Ramos, and others, all of whom are chafing at the interminable durability of the President, as well as other power players who are inclined as much to think one step ahead as the President, whether it’s potential presidential candidates like Manuel Villar, Jr. or people fully intent on continuing to play the role of king maker, like Eduardo Cojuangco, Jr. One such meeting took place around September, where FVR is said to have received JDV in order to determine if provincemate really had the goods, and could really put up a fight.
The two supposedly reached a tacit agreement involving JDV throwing the bomb, and if it had the intended effect, it would provide the two -FVR and JDV- with a pretext to call for the scrapping of the Lakas-Kampi merger, and take an FVR-JDV loyalist rump into union with the NPC of Cojuangco and the NP of Villar. An application had been been filed with Christian Democrats International to accredit the NP as a Christian Democratic party, providing an ideological pretext for the new coalition, while the NPC could simply state that as a child of the NP, it was simply patching up the quarrel among partymates that dated back to Danding Cojuangco and Doy Laurel’s disagreement over who should have the party franchise.
All very neat, tidy, potentially formidable, a real game-changer, and one denying the President’s uncouth Kampi blowhards and the perpetual Opposition losers the satisfaction of victory. A true victory for the veterans. At least, this is the delicious scenario as they might see it.
In recent weeks, it’s been talked about that the NPC began to stall on Charter Change talks, and that the Palace decided to accelerate the killing of the impeachment complaint not only to forestall opportunities for new revelations, but also to maintain their political momentum and stampede representatives into joining the Charter Change bandwagon. The way things ebbed and flowed in the House going into the last Charter Change effort in 2006, indicates how congressmen can be mulish just when the mule drivers want them to trot. As it is, the Palace has had to give the impression it’s backpedaling a bit: Palace: No to lifting of term limits really says nothing, though. the Palace, procedurally and politically, can “exclude, dismiss, and reject” whatever it wants in public, but so long as the behind-the-scenes green light stays lit, the ultimate aim of something for everyone can be achieved. Part of the smokescreen.
And there are other leaders perpetually circling around, sniffing for opportunity. Which is why I’m inclined to think Uniffors is on to something. What do you think is a bigger motivation, and calculation, for someone like Juan Ponce Enrile? To wrap up his political career “para siempre un muchacho,” as his generation might put it, or as possibly, the transitional President of the Philippines, his portrait permanently on display in the presidential palace? Amando Doronila, who has had decades to observe his former jailer, Enrile, says a sudden toppling of a President who views him as an elderly toady is just the sort of thing to make the old schemer grin in anticipation.
Everyone knows timing is everything in politics. If everyone has begun to think of a post-Arroyo future, how do you, as Arroyo, keep yourself front and center, to continue enjoying a maximum number of political options? The President has always shown a marked preference for thinking tactically and not strategically. Her elders pride themselves on thinking strategically. The tactician has proven herself the mistress of the strategists so far.
The way to keep everyone off-kilter is not to wait for them to throw you off, but to throw them off, obviously.
How?
Start having the machinery you control belch out another smokescreen.
It seems Secretary Jesus Dureza confided to persons close to him that they were going to do “something” the next morning, to gauge the public pulse. The next morning, Dureza said his famous little prayer and what had been previously sewn up at Rep. Romualdez’s house, could begin to be delivered -Charter Change.
Charter Change primarily as smokescreen, but also, since there’s nothing to lose, as yet another item in the menu of presidential options.
Charter Change immediately swept the central story -impeachment, with all the accompanying side plots, from Bolante to the Eurogenerals, to NBN-ZTE-deal, off the table, as far as public attention was concerned.
Something beyond the Palace’s control had refocused the story not on the President’s insistence that all was well, but on everything that had made her administration unpopular in the first place. That thing was Bolante’s return, and impeachment season coming at its heels.
That thing includes reminders of all the many issues that have antagonized the public, including, I might add, the question of the BJE-MOA deal, which even the president’s critics didn’t want to touch with a ten foot pole.
Charter Change could have been resumed, with a lot of fanfare, two months ago or even two months from now. But why go great guns now?
Because it’s the only way to stop being on the defensive, and instead, go on the offensive.
But it seems the timing was not, exactly, right. Because the timing had been determined not by the Palace, from the start, but by other things.
Charter Change essentially remains a reaction to the embarrassment Bolante represents, and someone else proved capable of mastering the timeline, too.
Yesterday’s Inquirer reported on the revelations de Venecia’s already made -by means of his authorized biography- and which the House has to prevent being further elaborated upon and amplified in the House deliberations on impeachment. See JDV details secret Arroyo-ZTE meeting:
Again, timing is everything in politics. Those deliberations, at least in the Justice Committee, were supposed to be wrapped up last Friday. But the hearings on Thursday and Friday were canceled.
Timing is everything in politics. And it’s just as well that the gastrointestinal troubles of the President’s husband has him home in time to mind the store as the House of Representatives wrestles with what to do with its former Speaker, Jose de Venecia, Jr.
With the President absent (a benefit of her absences, if you’ve noticed, is that out sight means being out of mind: reducing the effect she has on public opinion, which is galvanize it, against herself), the man everyone, even her own loyalists, dislikes but needs, can take up the slack because he has nothing to lose. Ergo, First Gentleman: JDV a ‘liar’. Hey, it’s a crappy job but someone has to do it, and the President’s husband does it pretty well, in public and more crucially, behind the scenes.
JDV had wrestled with the problem of his lacking the numbers to prevent his being gagged by the House. Recall how he’d tried to do so, but coverage was cut off by the new House leadership. If one assumes he’s capable of a certain amount of introspection, he knows full well that among his many liabilities as a politician, is how he cannot make pithy remarks in front of media, he tends to meander and his rambling undercuts his effectivity. He is more suited to cajoling people in back rooms and, from time to time, making more carefully-structured speeches.
Which makes his decision to publish an authorized biography a pretty clever political move, one which undercuts his administration foes, and centers the discussion on his allegations. Critics would have to repeatedly make reference to the allegations, put forward in print; those references will make people curious; curious people will want to read what’s been written, and throughout the process, the debate will keep returning to the source document -de Venecia’s book. For this reason, I disagree with smoke who wrote, yesterday:
As far as bombshells go, this was a certifiable dud. Certainly didn’t reveal anything new, nor even added any sort of nuance to the story that’s been told over and over and over by everyone and his dog. JDV’s recollection of these events merely invites the reader to make the connections for himself – something which we’re all pretty good at; a strategy guaranteed to generate the most salacious conclusions possible.
There is a calibrated effort going on. Smoke’s entry was in response to his restating some of his original revelations. That’s just one story, in a book no one has had time to fully read, but whose contents are slowly -and surely, with timing in mind- being dribbled out by the one who authorized the book, JDV.
So, going into today’s hearing in the House, other revelations were made: JDV confirms P500,000 Palace bribe: Says cash for ‘weak’ impeach complaint. You can bet your bottom dollar that will dominate the morning news.
Again, not much by way of a revelation except it provides in-house confirmation, so to speak, of something everyone saw because the congressmen waddling out of the Palace in 2007 didn’t bother to hide their gift bags. And it confirms the testimony of Gov. Panlilio of Pampanga, another official on the Palace hit list.
But Joey de Venecia’s already said he expects his father to spill at least some beans on the issue everyone thought JDV would always remain mum on: North Rail.
We shall see how it unfolds today if it’s explosive or if it’s a dud. The Palace has to ride it out today and going into the rest of the week, trying to kill impeachment by midweek and ensure this by publicly ramping up Charter Change. JDV says he’s leaving Tuesday for Washington -where he has friends, unlike the President- which gives him a chance to peddle his book to foreign media, and leaves the Palace with no target to vent its ire on: it will have to face the accusations by its lonesome, when it’s usual tactic is to turn the tables on accusers by unleashing the attack dogs. But Washington is the last place to send those attack dogs, because the brunt of the asking will be done here at home.
Brilliant, if you ask me, true guerrilla hit-and-run tactics.
So if the de Venecias pull this off, and today turns out politically explosive, it should then be described as the day that revenge was truly proven to best be served cold. That’s another hoary old chestnut, but for some, it’s true.
If some of us would take inspiration from a Shakespearean call to sally forth, “Once more, unto the breach!” There’s the the little old prune who could just as much say, “Do or do not, there is no try.”
Update:
I find it interesting that the President’s husband had to sally forth and face the cameras. Flanked by his two sons. The President’s congressional allies have been rather subdued.
As Mon Casiple puts it in his entry for today:
Actual impeachment may be a lesser possibility based on the numbers in the House of Representatives but the political implications are certainly big enough. The revelation guarantees the focus on GMA’s foibles and constitutes further political pressure to make her resign.
The GMA majority in the House of Representatives actually rests on the fragile loyalty that money can provide. It is only feasible as long as the continued stay in power of the powers dispensing the largesse is assured. This is the reason why the current charter change move by Malacañang is being watched by all sides. When it fails, no money can dissuade the congressmen from seeking new patrons among the presidentiables. Their own survival imperative to stay in power will trump the money.
Before then, the pressure on GMA to resign is expected to increase. What is unspoken in this message is the “or else” clause. This is brought about by the interesting anti-GMA positioning of the de Venecias who are still very much a part of the ruling Lakas-CMD coalition party. Malacañang cannot anymore be certain of the loyalty of the majority in the ruling coalition, particularly the non-GMA Lakas-CMD, the NPC, House LPs, and other smaller groups. This was not present before in previous opposition initiatives.
This is an elaboration on the possible scenario I indicated above. And brings up all sorts of interesting permutations, including a cabinet declaration of presidential incapacity, which if contested by the President, leads to the question being thrown to Congress.
Blogger seven million goldfish in exasperation and alarm asks why not just shoot her? Those in a position or with an inclination to do so, are in jail. The truly big political players are not inclined to invest in or promote permanent solutions. And the question is not to eliminate her at all costs, but to save the Republic even if it means the President preterminating her term.
***
My column for today is, Congressmen respond, with the responses of Rep. Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel and Rep. Teodoro L. Locsin, Jr. to my my last column.
Jon,
If you have an extreme fear — which later turns out to be misplaced — and you disrupt the lives of others and stall the progress of an entire nation…are you a hero or…or what???
Your Citibank example is irrelevant, since it’s your personal assets for your personal concern, not the general public’s.
Paranoia, btw, is defined (Webster’s) as such:
1 : a psychosis characterized by systematized delusions of persecution or grandeur usually without hallucinations
2 : a tendency on the part of an individual or group toward excessive or irrational suspiciousness and distrustfulness of others
What happens when certain paranoid conspiracy theories DON’T ever become reality…as with most cases? Why should the rest of us be held back by an irrational minority?
Geo, it’s so easy to play on semantics. When you go technical on the word paranoia, do you really mean that when we’re speaking of paranoia here in this thread?
It’s also so easy to declare an illustration as irrelevant when it doesn’t support your views. My point is, you need to do something when you think there’s some danger ahead. Now, if you don’t fear anything ahead, then fine you just sit back. Why would one tell people what to do or not to when when they’re acting on their fears and suspicions? Fear and suspicions against Gloria are not without basis: she’s capable on going back on her words, she’s capable of doing things that are unconstitutional (as declared by the court), she’s capable of disregarding what people say.
Also when you say minority, what do you mean by that? Which survey did you base that from?
Jon,
“Regarding paranoia and conspiracy theories: they remain as they are until the fear becomes reality, di ba? Now if you fear something and you don’t take steps to handle the possibility then you suffer the consequences!”
oo nga pala. just because you are not paranoid, it does not mean they are not out to get you!
kaya the anti anti school will also come up with its own paranoia – the anti gloria school is bringing down the country to economic chaos with its “gloria beyond 2010 delusions”!
with the anti gloria school’s delusions, who needs a Wall Street meltdown?
“E.g. you fear that Citibank will collapse after all (even with the bailout), aren’t you going to take some if not all of your money out if somebody calls you paranoid? Hmm?”
the fall of Citi is very imminent! in today’s environment where the seemingly invincible Wall Street is crumbling, thats not paranoia!
but cha cha? gloria’s extension? as certain as Citi’s collapse? oh please!
we can see effects of the Wall Street meltdown. the effects can be independently seen. we don’t need the prophets of doom to help us see these effects!
Jon,
Yes, I think the use of the word is apt here. Ane yes, the technical meaning of the word is instructive.
Now, if you want to maintain a healthy dose of scepticism towards any and all politicians, I’m with you…as are most civilians around the world.
In this specific case, the politician has broken a promise and sometimes disregards individuals or groups. Seems par for the course.
But, maybe Gloria is anti-Constitutional? After all, she lost (and won) cases in the SC. But…that’s not uncommon for a Chief of the Executive branch either. After all, someone has to implement the laws.
Regardless, should a nation go forward with Constitutional changes — which most agree are required, or should it sacrifice progress because of the paranoia of a few?
It is an irrational delusion to think that the Senators, SC and the people (via plebescite) will all vote for term extensions.
Barring an outright military-backed takover of the country (in which it’s probable that the entire population will take to the streets), the likelyhood of GMA staying on past her term is negligible.
It would be far more productive if Congress could start passing some needed laws and could start the debate on Chacha.
But if you, a citizen, wants to bang a pot and cry wolf — help yourself. I am primarily concerned about the continued lack of positive, helpful activity in the Legislature.
Anthony Scalia, you’re not funny there in your last comment.
Geo, I am for constitutional change; at the right time and place. Right time is after 2010 when Gloria is gone so that the sitting politicians will not benefit (is that paranoia?, maybe it is, but it’s also prudent.). The right way is for a constitutional convention where each change is properly discussed, debated on, and finalized. Whatever change shouldn’t be done hastily.
If an argument is made to not go with the impeachment process (which by the way is already moot) because 2010 is almost here, then an argument can also be made on the contrary that why not wait for 2010 for the Cha-cha? Whatever changes in the constitution that will be put in place are not going to be instant “hits” anyway. It would still take years before palpable effects are manifested. Which again can either be negative or positive.
Jon,
I am for change, prefer Concon and want it done asap.
I think the processes (and intermittent challenges) and the debates will take quite some time. I believe there are many checks and balances during all of this (as explained previously), and none of the parties involved want to see term extensions.
2010 is a good target date for a transition from one system to another. After all, the problem has been STARTING the process. The reasons cited for a delay now will be the same reasons for delays later.
If there are “normal” elections for 2010 and THEN we start the the process and debates for Chacha, why won’t people be suspicious of the NEW Congressmen and other officials of having the benefits of incumbency?
That said…if 2010 is nonetheless too aggressive a date (due to the logistics), then I agree with those who want elections in 2010 for the Concon membership (which would include non-politicians).
In any case, even deciding on how to have such an election, who would be allowed, etc, etc woud require time. So start now.
The only excuse not to is the paranoia being generated by anti-GMA types with their own agenda.
By the way, the economic amendments would most likely have immediate effectivity and results…..
Haste makes waste. Go for Cha-cha at the right time, that’s my preference.
In the meantime, I’m also for Gloria’s resignation so that she and her cabal can’t influence the process. You see, I believe that Gloria plans to stay beyond 2010 (is that paranoia?, that’s a suspicion). What am I doing about my suspicion? I am supporting calls for her resignation, or impeachment. That I believe is a very logical stand on how I see things are going in the Philippines. Why don’t I like Gloria? Just click on the link of my handle and see the list…
As for an immediate economic effect of a constitutional change? That’s doubtful.
Jon,
Well, I looked at your page. If you believe all that stuff, then I can see where you are coming from.
Your desire for GMA’s ouster is based on dubious information. Fortunately, though, you are part of a small minority. Unfortunately, that minority is disrupting the country’s progress.
Case in point — Due to the real (or manufactured) irrational delusions of this group, the ability of the country to address serious flaws in the Constitution is being hindered.
If the law for foreign ownership is passed in any given month, you will see the jump in investments in the very next month.
Jon,
“Anthony Scalia, you’re not funny there in your last comment.”
i can say the same to your entire post that i responded to.
Geo, a good leader would come clean and address the accussations against him/her squrely. This leadership measurement is not addressed by Gloria.
Now, if all information and accussations against Gloria are dubious then why were some of them confirmed by the Supreme Court and other government bodies? (e.g. Nani Perez by Ombudsman, Poll automation by Supreme Court, etc.).
Again, are you really speaking for the majority? Why do you keep on putting me and others in the minority? I don’t claim to speak for the minority or majority, I am speaking for myself.
Regarding amendments to the constitution, it’s not fair for you to put blame on those who don’t trust Gloria. Our constitution has been there since 1987, if leaders really want to have it changed it should have been amdended a long time ago. And if you’re really in the majority then you could make change happen even with our opposition, right? We’re in a democracy remember and the current administration is pro Cha-cha, so why can’t it make things happen? Because of opposition? That’s not very logical.
jon, to think of it you are very right! if the few in the opposition are the minority and the majority is the pro gma or pro cha cha and they why is the majority in the congress can ram cha cha through like how they treated the impeachment complaints. afraid of the public’s backlash? well, gma said it herself, it is about popularity, but what is good for the country and pinoys.
if gma and allies really believe that cha cha will be best for this nation then why not go for it. forget that the surveys say the majority of filipinos surveyed opposed it. surveys are not reliable anyway!
is delaying cha cha is delaying our economic progress? then again, go for it. and why is it mikey arroyo would not admit in public that he is leading the signature campaign for cha cha? wouldn’t he want to be known as the one who finally made possible for our country to finally attain first world status?
for all the talk about cha cha being good for the country and that the so called silent majority supports it, how come they are so afraid of the few trouble makers or the minority?
well, gma said it herself, it is about popularity, but what is good for the country and pinoys.
–should be, “well, gma said it herself, it is NOT about popularity…..”
CHA-CHA! CHA-CHA! CHA-CHA! CHA-CHA! NOW NA!
i am now convinced that cha-cha is the best for us pinoys!
i now believe our congressmen in the MAJORITY only want the best for us! i now believe gma is innocent! did NOT commit any of the crimes she is being accused of! raul gonzalez is the best ever justice secretary our country ever had! palparan will solve our insurgency problem and was doing a great job before he retired. we should bring him out of retirement. we have the best government ever assembled, better than any nation. who needs obama when we have GMA and mike a.?
onward to first world status!!!
Jon,
Ummm…every accusation has been addressed, no? I think it’s more like you will not accept the denial of wrongdoing…even if the evidence supports those denials (and/or no evidence supports the accusations).
Take, for example, the Garci Tapes. I saw your blog and noted that there is no reference to the fact that the SC opened the actual ballot boxes and the CoC’s and actual votes showed no meaningful cheating.
This factual measurement is not addressed by you in any of the cases you listed..
Furthermore, GMA has nothing to do with the charges vs Perez nor the cancellation of the automated polls contract, so I don’t understand your references. Meanwhile, there has NOT been any consirmation of any evidence vs Gloria…after 4 years of shrill accusations.
The minority I was referring to is the crowd which wants GMA ousted. That is a single-digit portion of the population (6%, last I saw). So since she won’t be impeached and won’t resign, what’s your desire?
The failure to amend the Constitution is everyone’s fault. That’s sad, since the infirmities of the Constitution have been admitted by people of all different political and stripes. Even the opposition wants Chacha.
But the opposition is against Chacha NOW. And so they create a lot of noise and confuse the issues purposefully. Their main complaint is that they don’t want the changes to go into effect because the majority has incumbent positions.
Gee…maybe it would be OK once the oppositionists are incumbents? And then what will the other side say? You see the big problem. We need to get over this catch-22. Taking action is the solution.
How can the opposition stop Chacha? Well, the Senate can refuse to cooperate. The opposition can use fear mongering with the general public. Opposition NGOs and entities/personalities can help spread false information. Remember, even if the pro-Chacha group gets past the Senators and the SC, the people still must agree by plebescite.
So yes, this is a democracy and the opposition can block the moves of the majority.
So the disinformation campaign is underway. Look at istambay’s posts, for example —
He thinks that the recent SWS (pro-opposition, btw) survey says that the people reject Chacha. That’s just one big lie.
The survey asked if the people were supportive of Chacha in order to extend GMA’s stay in power!!! It didn’t ask if anyone was inherently for or against Chacha in general.
Funny how that’s not how ANC, INQ, etc spun it. That’s not how the anti-GMAs explained it. So you have istambays all over the place…who are either easily fooled or are purposefully distorting the truth to the people.
Actually, there’s nothing funny about this at all…..
“He thinks that the recent SWS (pro-opposition, btw) survey says that the people reject Chacha. That’s just one big lie. ”
–that is why i am proposing that the amendment of the constitution should include to declare any survey conducted by the opposition or results not favorable to the administration by punishable by law!
as i already have mentioned earlier that surveys are very unreliable, only the backward countries like USA believes in polls or survey. we are a better country than them. again who needs obama when we pinoys have gma!
Geo, when was the IMPSA deal approved? Was it only Nani Perez who benefited?
On the Poll automation fiasco, who benefited? Who have been made accountable so far?
On the point of command responsibility, Gloria is responsible. My unsubstantiated accussation is that she’s also benefited from this if not her husband. She has not done anything about these. If she’s clean, she has to do better in unmasking who the real culprits are. Not doing anything like what the Ombudsman is doing is, to me, incriminating. If Gloria has managed to keep her hands “gloved” by her husband, she’s still responsible.
On the case of cheating, has the manifestations of the opposition been factually addressed? On the recent election, has the accussation of SAF’s special op been fully addressed? Not yet.
Here is the actual question SWS asked:
“Do agree or disagree with a charter change that will allow PGMA to still be the chief official of the RP after 6/30/10?”
Unfortunately, the question is a stupid one. I don’t think there is much support anywhere or from anyone which is demanding term extentions.
So why did SWS — on its own; without being comissioned by any one — do this survey? Why ask the question in the first place? Perhaps it’s how the answers were used.
Read the headlines or look at posts by screechers like istambay — they have twisted things around so that they can claim the population is against Chacha. Then they go out and tell the population that everyone thinks Chacha stinks and its a sham.
And this is how progress can effectively be blocked…to the detriment of all.
“when was the IMPSA deal approved? Was it only Nani Perez who benefited?”
whats the connection of gloria there?
“On the Poll automation fiasco, who benefited? Who have been made accountable so far?”
again, what’s gloria’s role there?
“On the point of command responsibility, Gloria is responsible.”
on what?
“My unsubstantiated accussation…”
there you go. ’nuff said
” is that she’s also benefited from this if not her husband. She has not done anything about these. If she’s clean, she has to do better in unmasking who the real culprits are. Not doing anything like what the Ombudsman is doing is, to me, incriminating. If Gloria has managed to keep her hands “gloved†by her husband, she’s still responsible.”
the President has other, much better things to do. firefighting is not one of them
“On the case of cheating, has the manifestations of the opposition been factually addressed? On the recent election, has the accussation of SAF’s special op been fully addressed? Not yet.”
what matters is the decision of the PET. the case is closed. why belabor the issue? the ‘united opposition’ is just one big sore loser.
Jon,
The IMPSA case is alive and moving (I guess. It’s fluid now, admittedly). Anyway, these things take time, unfortunately. Too much time. How long did it take to get past all the obstacles before Erap was finally convicted?
Who benefitted from the cancellation of the machines? I don’t know — Pimentel? After all, he was the one who stopped Comelec from using them at the last minute. Why did he do that?
Problem is — those machines were more than adequate; they should have been used. Anyway, Gloria can in no way be connected with that.
Apparently, you have an opinion that anything that happens can be traced to GMA via the concept of command responsibility. That’s not so.
Regardless, the charge of cheating (which necessitaded getting the equipment contract cancelled???) is wrong.
The opposition identified specific areas where they claimed cheating occured. Both sides and their lawyers opened the boxes with the SC and found…nothing much abnormal.
Meanwhile, in the recent election, the opposition won!
istambay_sakalye,
may kasabihan – nothing is more obscure than the obvious
yung mga survey na pinagmamalaki mo, good for one week lang.
kung gusto mo talagang makuha ang (supposed) pulso ng bayan, kelangan every week ang survey.
kaya yung pinagmamalaki mong survey result ay ayon lamang sa isang week of survey. you want to get the “public pulse” again? conduct another survey.
you must have a survey weekly for 52 weeks to really get the trend of the “public pulse”
pero sorry ka na lang. the richest anti gloria school member cannot afford to commission a weekly survey for 52 straight weeks! siyempre di sya tanga ano? payayamanin lang nya sina Mahar at Felipe, just for propaganda purposes
eh ang hirap sa iyo eh you keep on citing surveys more than an eternity old!
at saka sa “backward na country na USA” ay napakaraming survey companies. di lang dalawa.
Geo, Anthony, I would like to see all these cases come to a conclusion. I say, my unsubstantiated accussation because I wasn’t there when those deals were done.
Were you there to say that no hanky-panky happened?
Was it only 2 million US$? Why was the IMPSA deal only approved when Gloria kicked Erap out of Malacanang? Aren’t you interested to know?
The SC said that the poll automation contract was anomalous and disadvantageous to the the Filipino people. The Ombudsman said, yes, but nobody’s to blame? So who’s responsible for that now? Aren’t you interested to know?
Were you there when Romy Neri talked to Gloria regarding the bribe Ben Abalos offered him?
Were you there when the PET saw some questionable ballots that made Zubiri win?
I say that Gloria has a hand on these things.
Jon :
“Were you there to say that no hanky-panky happened?”
me, no. were you?
“Was it only 2 million US$?”
i don’t know.
” Why was the IMPSA deal only approved when Gloria kicked Erap out of Malacanang?”
i don’t know. but one thing for sure. the process for the IMPSA deal’s ok started during Erap’s time.
“Aren’t you interested to know?”
i am
“The SC said that the poll automation contract was anomalous and disadvantageous to the the Filipino people. The Ombudsman said, yes, but nobody’s to blame? So who’s responsible for that now? Aren’t you interested to know?”
i am. im also interested to know how is gloria connected to that!
how did she? you seem to know
“Were you there when Romy Neri talked to Gloria regarding the bribe Ben Abalos offered him?”
no.
Neri said that during the Senate hearings. i heard him.
the “united opposition” are real bumbling stupid fools. its already obvious that gloria gave the go-signal to the ZTE project even with the knowledge of the Abalos bribe try. but for whatever reason, they did not it pick it up from there, and still chose to insist that Neri tell them what gloria said when advised of the bribe try.
“Were you there when the PET saw some questionable ballots that made Zubiri win?”
me, no. were you?
Zubiri’s win? in 2004?
“I say that Gloria has a hand on these things.”
you yourself said it – unsubstantiated allegations
Anthony, that’s good that you’re interested to know what really happened. I assume that you’re also interested to see those who are responsible punished.
I can see that you’re satisfied with the status quo and you’re not pointing your finger to the person who’s ultimately responsible.
For me, I place the responsibility in Gloria’s hand. She’s the president, she’s responsible for not solving these cases. I don’t have proof, so do you on the contrary that she’s got her hands tainted. I don’t have trust in her.
Jon,
Politicians, as a rule, should not be trusted and should be watched. If someone gets caught doing something wrong, they should face the punishment.
The key, though, is that there are processes, procedures and laws to be followed. That is the mark of a mature democracy.
Conversely, chronic breakdown of these laws…and of political stability…is the mark of a banana republic.
Considering the economic status of the Philippines, it is inherently self-defeating to create a negative international image of the nation’s political stability.
If one wanted to bring grave damage to the country, he could reject things like “evidence”, “due process”, “facts”…then call for a general rejection of the institutions, take to the streets and refuse to operate within the context of established and agreed parameters.
He would then find a “higher authority” to justify his revolution.
The end result? Less jobs, more poverty, less progress, more illiteracy.
Nice.
So anyway, Jon, you never answered — if impeachment fails and GMA refuses to resign, what next?
And if Chacha is long overdue, what should we do?
Jon
“I don’t have proof, so do you on the contrary that she’s got her hands tainted. I don’t have trust in her.”
but you are the one making the assertion, which places the burden of proving on your shoulders. he who alleges must prove
i already just accepted it that no matter what proof or evidence will be presented, the majority in congress will just kill the impeachment complaint.
even the blind can see what is going on. let us just do the cha-cha, now na!
Life goes on Geo, at least I’ve done what I believe I’m supposed to do as a citizen. As an individual, there’s not much I can do that is why when there are actions I believe in, I join.
When impeachment for this year is finally junked and Gloria refuses to resign, then my options are open. If Cha-cha is rammed thru our throats I’ll be part of those against it, may it be succesful or not.
Anthony, this is not a court of law if you haven’t noticed. I don’t have to prove anything. If Gloria needs to convert people like me, then she’s got to come clean.
Jon,
OK, I appreciate those who maintain sobriety.
With the highly politicized, partisan impeachment dead, perhaps the country can now focus on progress and reform (passing overdue legislation, for ex, would be nice…).
So — understanding that Chacha can not really be rammed down anyone’s throat (since a plebiscite is required to pass any changes) — let us contemplate a scenario….
Imagine that everything goes rather smoothly, the issues get hammered out, and the country can have Parliamentary elections in 2010.
Gloria is stepping down and there have been restrictions enacted which prohibit her from getting a leadership position.
Is there any more problems then? Can individuals/parties compete for votes and win/lose? And everyone agrees with whatever are the results?
Are you OK with that?
Parliamentary elections? Is that a Freudian slip?
Why do you think is a parliamentary form of government good for the Philippines?
But of course, I’m for change (the right way) and for the betterment of the Philippines. I would like to go back home and retire to a better home.
My question is, what would you do if Gloria goes back on her word and stays on? If that happens, no amount of “I told you so” will correct that problem!
Jon,
No, no slip at all. One of the prominent proposals is to shift to a Parliamentary system. Why do you think we’re talking about Chacha in the first place??? Sheesh.
You ask what if GMA tries to stay on….
How? Ceratinly Chacha wouldn’t prescribe it. So how would that come about? Military on the streets??? Can you describe a plausible scenario?
My friend, 98% of the country would take the streets in a Martial Law situation. Barring that, I’m not sure how Gloria will “go back on her word and stay on.”
Come back to earth and let’s discuss non-partisan, serious proposals for improving the nation’s well-being.
After all, that’s what Chacha is about…..
istambay_sakalye :
‘i already just accepted it that no matter what proof or evidence will be presented, the majority in congress will just kill the impeachment complaint.
even the blind can see what is going on. let us just do the cha-cha, now na!’
sabihin mo, napakatamad talaga ng mga impeachment proponents. ayaw mag-lobby para makuha ang 1/3
wag mong isisi sa buong Kamara ang kakulangan at kaengotan ng mga ‘united opposition’
Jon,
“Anthony, this is not a court of law if you haven’t noticed.”
oh yes i’ve noticed.
i also hope you also noticed that you are making accusations without proof. you don’t need to be a lawyer to know that is wrong
as if the making of the accusation is already the proof of the accusation
wait till you are at the receiving end of an accusation, and the burden of showing otherwise is on you!
“I don’t have to prove anything.”
same thing with whoever accuses you
“If Gloria needs to convert people like me, then she’s got to come clean.”
same thing with whoever accuses you
and sorry to say this, gloria need not convert people like you. whether people like you are converted or not, her job as president continues
but lets pursue your notion that you don’t have to prove anything, the burden is on gloria.
gloria does not lift a finger. what do you do then?
file a case? you yourself said it – you have unsubstantiated allegations. then the case is dismissed, you will accuse the courts of “blind” “deaf” and “mute” when in the first place the accusations were unsubstantiated!
incite another people power? you yourself said it – you have unsubstantiated allegations. what would make people go to EDSA once again? where’s the proof of the accusations? then if another EDSA attempt goes pffffft you will accuse people as “blind” “deaf” and “mute” and all those trying to maintain peace and order as “oppressive” and “repressive”
asking for proof to support an accusation is not being legalistic.
it is being fair
Jon,
“My question is, what would you do if Gloria goes back on her word and stays on? If that happens, no amount of “I told you so†will correct that problem!”
if you only knew what would it take for gloria to stay beyond June 30, 2010.
time is too short for an amendment to be in place that allows her that
besides there is still the question can gloria benefit from any term extension.
any term extension can only benefit the incumbent’s successor
Anthony, in a democracy people can punish the politicians who don’t come clean by not voting for them. That’s what I’m going to do. In other places like Thailand they do the coup, and recently they’re doing what’s on the news. In places like India, they kill (just like what they’ve done recently). You see, people have options. That is one reason why politicians should convert people like me.
And I noticed that you didn’t answer my question on what you will do if Gloria goes back on her word. It is a hypothetical question and your answer shouldn’t be taken against you, don’t worry.
As for accussations against me, I will prove their accussations wrong. For example, if somebody accusses me of rigging elections, i’ll simply say I’m not a politician and I’ve never even ran for office. As simple as that. My answers are verifiable, I have cleared my name.
Jon,
You don’t understand. It seems that the only possible way GMA could go back on her word — successfully — would be via Martial Law.
Can you describe another scenario in which she stays on past 2010?
If she declares Martial Law (while not being attacked during her official tenure, that is) so that she can extend, I’ll be out in the streets with everyone else. The US and international community would reject her action.
The screechers keep yelling about how Chacha is a cover for extending her stay…but they haven’t explained how that would actually occur.
If she simply wants to declare Martial Law, there’s no need to go through the Chacha process…she can just order the troops.
Conversely, it seems logical that — if she wants Chacha, she doesn’t want to declare Martial Law.
Oh…and there’s absolutely no evidence or indication that Martial Law is imminent. Gee, maybe the reason to have Chacha is to improve the Constitution.
Jon,
That’s a ridiculous comeback to Anthony.
What if someone in your neighborhood claimed that you have been molesting young boys and girls.
Say you are a young bachelor and people than talk about how they’ve never seen you with a female (or male, even) date.
Oh, and the accuser covets your position as Barangay Captain.
OK…now prove that you still don’t molest children…..
“Gee, maybe the reason to have Chacha is to improve the Constitution.”
Gee, Geo, that’s quite a big maybe, don’t you think?
I purposedly answered that way because I had the same conversation here in MLQ3’s blog. With exactly the same line as you gave, maybe it was you too who used the same line.
It’s been done before (wrong accussations against innocent ones), but there were also valid ones like that of Jalosjos. Now because it is difficult to prove your innocense, should be stop making accussations? In the end, the truth prevails.
Why Geo, if it was you who was accused of being a pedophile, what would you do? Wouldn’t you work to protect your good name? Or are you just going to keep quiet and continue doing your job?
Geo, Gloria has history of going back on her word. If you’ve done it before, there’s a big chance you’ll do it again.
Why, did you foresee all the EOs and PDs that she’s declared before? Some of them has been declared unconstitutional by the supreme court. Do you remember?
Why do you think that only Martial Law is her way to remain in power? In doing so you’ve eliminated all other options. I give Gloria more credit than you do.
“If she declares Martial Law (while not being attacked during her official tenure, that is) so that she can extend, I’ll be out in the streets with everyone else.”-Geo
Will you be out in the street too if this chacha allows her to hold on to power as expected of her to do?
Answer yes and we will call it a draw, or, we can even concede you win.
I guess I’ve made my point clear: I don’t trust Gloria that’s why I support moves to get her out of the office now and in addition, I support moves that will not allow her to remain in office. I’ve got to leave this thread.
“wag mong isisi sa buong Kamara ang kakulangan at kaengotan ng mga ‘united opposition’”
–c’mon my friend. will you always have an excuse for everything? nothing will be good enough for you or the kengkoys and tongs in the congress. the minority could lobby themselves to death and still nothing will ever happen. it seems to me that manny’s fight in las vegas is more important to them.
Jon,
You still don’t understand (or you are being disingenuous).
I believe that the Jalosjos case was decided on the basis of HARD evidence. But if I were accused, how could I prove my innocence? The accuser offers no substantive evidence; yet I have no evidence that proves I didn’t do anything wrong. In the meantime, friends of the accuser are now joining in the call for my dismissal from the Barangay Captaincy.
When the other Baranagy officials say that this should be handled according to Barangay rules, the accuser and pals call the officials “accomplices”, “whitewashers”, “in the pocket of the Bgy Captain”, etc, etc.
The officials are being made to look bad in front of the other residents. The easy way out is to give the accuser what he wants. If so, I will lose my reputation, my post, everything. The truth will not prevail.
That’s why there must be a fair trial. That”s why the burden of proof is on the accuser.
But you state that the right thing is for me to go out and convert/convince someone like you — a regular citizen in the barangay — that I’m innocent! Again — how can I??? All I can do is repeat to you that the accuser’s proof is lacking.
Worse yet…you state that — even if the judicial process determines I am innocent — the burden is STILL on me to convert/convince you of my innocence! Wow.
Finally, one neighbor believes me, while you don’t. How will a third person know whose “Truth” is the truth?
Jon
wait!
“Anthony, in a democracy people can punish the politicians who don’t come clean by not voting for them.”
true
“That’s what I’m going to do.”
noted.
“In other places like Thailand they do the coup, and recently they’re doing what’s on the news. In places like India, they kill (just like what they’ve done recently). You see, people have options. That is one reason why politicians should convert people like me.”
noted
“And I noticed that you didn’t answer my question on what you will do if Gloria goes back on her word. It is a hypothetical question and your answer shouldn’t be taken against you, don’t worry.”
my goodness! did i tell you something about amendments?
there is nothing gloria can do because the constitution will not allow her to extend in whatever form! its too late to have an amendment!
besides, even if the term of the president is extended or allowed a 2nd term, gloria won’t enjoy it! her successor will enjoy it!
don’t you get it?
so we are not worried that gloria will not stay true to her promise of not running again!
oh yes im not worried!
Jon,
You wrote: “Gloria has history of going back on her word. If you’ve done it before, there’s a big chance you’ll do it again.”
Duh. There’s a big difference between a politician making a pre-election promise…and then breaking it (like Obama did, for ex), and breaking the law and bringing guns to the street in order to illegally take over a country by force.
Really….are you pretending to be this unaware???
Jon,
For my position about the SC cases involving “political matters” and constitutional issues, see further up this very thread. I touched on virtually each case. Perhaps you can take a look….
Anyway, it is extremely common for constitutional issues to make it to the SC. GMA has “won” and “lost” some case. Same with many Presidents. It doesn’t say much other than the SC seems to rule fairly and their rulings are thereafter implemented as the law.
The SC’s record during GMA’s tenure is useless in this discussion about Chacha. If and when they rule, we’ll all have to live with it…including GMA…as she has repeatedly done.
istambay_sakalye :
“–c’mon my friend. will you always have an excuse for everything? nothing will be good enough for you or the kengkoys and tongs in the congress. the minority could lobby themselves to death and still nothing will ever happen. it seems to me that manny’s fight in las vegas is more important to them.”
oh come on my friend. the House in 2000 was Erap controlled, just as the House of 2008 is gloria controlled.
yet erap was impeached. via Art. 11 sec. 4.
anong ‘nothing is good enough for you?
I am already telling you how to do impeachment right!
Follow how erap was impeached!
kung sabagay, human nature na yang maghanap ng excuses.
excuses. excuses. blaming the whole world except themselves (the bright boys of the ‘united opposition’)
no wonder nakaupo pa rin si gloria.
my friend, no amount of name calling will produce that needed 1/3 vote. that is worked hard for.
anong “the minority can lobby themselves to death”?
in the first place, ginagawa ba nila yun? no! since 2005, no!
saka laymen can do the lobbying. have a prepared complaint, then lobby each congressman to get his signature. hanggang maka 1/3.
pero ginagawa ba yun ng anti gloria school? hinde!
since 2005, hinde!
anong nothing will happen? remember how erap was impeached!
kung sabagay, mas madaling magtatatalak na lamang kaysa mag-lobby
pero ang di ko pa rin ma-arok, since 2005 pa, di ma-realize ng anti gloria school na lobbying to get the 1/3 is closest to removing gloria than pagtatatalak!
Bert :
“Will you be out in the street too if this chacha allows her to hold on to power as expected of her to do?
for the nth time, cha cha cannot allow gloria (1) to run again in 2010 or (2) to extend beyond 2010
even if an amendment is in place allowing a 2nd term or a term extension, that will be enjoyed by gloria’s successor
“Answer yes and we will call it a draw, or, we can even concede you win.”
you. concede? on this matter?
you have been bombarded with endless posts and constitutional proof that gloria cannot run again nor extend. yet you still persist in that paranoia of gloria still around beyond 2010
Jon and Bert,
Have you guys read what I wrote several times in this very thread? Do you actually read anthony’s words? Do you have any idea about the process required for Chacha?
For Chacha to become law, the following must happen:
1. The Congress would register 75% “yeas” in favor of either a Concon or Conass.
— That would mean that the Senate voted seperately (and also passed the motion), or (more likely)….
2. The SC ruled that the Congress only has to vote as a unitary body.
3. Conass/Concon meets, debates and creates a proposal.
4. A plebescite supporting the amendments is supported by the majority of the population.
Now, add to this your fear that one of the clauses will call for a term extension for GMA (or that there will not exist any clauses that DISALLOWS it).
All that woould be needed would be that everyone would agree with the proposals. That’s 3/4 Congress, the majority in the SC (even though the law already prohibits it), and a majority of Filipinos.
Oh. And this all has to happen before 2010.
Sounds impossible, doesn’t it? So…the only plausible way for GMA to extend is by force. Which is unlikely…unlikely to happen, unlikely to succeed.
So again — you people are being irrational or are purposefully being untruthful and are actually just trying to cause confusion, anger and self-destructive national policies.