Before…
…And after.
Ding Gagelonia’s recent entry in his blog, At Midfield, got me thinking. As well as some comments by readers for me to consider their view that there’s not enough time to pursue Charter Change (I think there is).
But both got me to reflect, once again, on this: Timing is everything in politics, the saying goes. Yesterday’s Inquirer editorial points to the political timing of oil price rollbacks, for example.
You can calculate your moves to be timed in such a manner as to throw your opponents off-kilter. You determine the timing of events.
Or you can time your moves to coincide or take advantage of events no one could preordained, but which you foresaw as being predetermined, that is, they would occur sooner or later, and once they take place, better-prepared, you can seize the moment.
Time is seasonal; for example, in terms of political time, impeachment has its season and other things, like Charter Change, have their own season.
What happens when two seasons coincide or their timing seems to operate at cross-purposes to each other.
After all, the only thing that can seriously derail the marshaling of forces for Charter Change is impeachment. Or is it?
What if you put it another way, the other way around? The only thing that can derail the marshaling of forces for impeachment is Charter Change.
The only checkmate on the President is impeachment, not the official end of her term; for her term expiring is at best, a moveable goal-post (create a new job, and the expiration of your term isn’t consequential; retiring isn’t a problem if besides an obliging Ombudsman and a friendly Supreme Court, you have a new President you swung the election to). Only impeachment means sudden death, politically. And things can happen very fast, when people see a check mate unfolding, for capitalizing on it requires only a committed and nimble minority with its eye on the prize.
The long, hard slog of trying to exact accountability through constitutional means since it was first attempted in 2005 has only served to sap the will of those attempting it and makes cynical those who favor it as a means of replacing a president above all others. As Cocoy wrote in The Political Machinery and Infrastructure Of President Arroyo:
But I submit, to you my dear readers, that the cases against President Gloria Arroyo, are strong, very strong, based on command responsibility, based on misappropriated funds, and so much more, but the smoking gun has never been found, except for one, which I mention in the next paragraph. Call it genius, I say it’s something else. You decide. And even when it led straight to the top, it has had to be based on testimony, for example, that of Romulo Neri. He told her about the alleged bribe attempt, she confirmed her knowledge about the NBN deal, in no less than on a radio show, but still, nothing came about.
Even, when the strongest case, election fraud, was brought to The Senate, in the whirlwind that we now know as The Garci Tapes, we still could not deliver a death sentence to this Administration, it was not only a failure of our government, and all those involved, but it was the death of the trust that our people had in this government.
President Gloria Arroyo, blame her all you want, because I certainly do, has built up so many safeguards, has made the political moves, and has the deep political team, and bench, that even in such a time in which Joc Joc Bolante is now testifying before The Senate, she may be a bit nervous, but in the end, she has to know, her machinery, and her political infrastructure will shield her from any form of accountability. Each and every time, she has been cleared, either by witnesses, by government institutions, or by providing another fall guy to take the fall.
It’s a sad realization. That even, while, I am sick to my stomach, watching the Joc Joc hearings, that, nothing seems be coming out of it, that it is important that The Filipino People realize, just as when Neri testified, the messed up system of procurement, appropriation, project planning, etc, that our nation is in.
But, when people close their eyes to such anomalies, declare a saint out of this woman, I take notice, and I take offense, because such denial, such defense, it can no longer can be based on logical reason, but on a mere partisan reaction.
So, we are in a quandry, the obviousness of the whole affair, this affair that we call The Arroyo Administration, as to how to hold her responsible. But we have not the political climate to exact the punishment that is due to her. The strongest hard evidence, The Hello Garci tapes, led to nothing, but a now popular term - “Noted”.
Hard evidence is there, I say, but even putting this aside, the most damning is when you take the bulk of these anomalies, add on to it human rights violations, kidnappings during this regime, and now a resurgent Fertilizer Fund Scam investigation, these all scream Arroyo, and political will is strong to bring her to account, but the numbers, however, and the machinery sides with Arroyo.
In light of the above, let me propose, further, that the only people really in a position to put teeth in the proceedings, are not her long-standing foes, but her more recent foes: those who were once very close allies and partook of presidential plenty during the happy days of old. And who was closer than Jose de Venecia, Jr.? Arguably three individuals spelled the difference between a breathing spell and a second wind, politically, and resignation and exile in 2005. They were: Fidel V. Ramos, Jose de Venecia, Jr., and Gaudencio Cardinal Rosales, Archbishop of Manila.
FVR and JDV thought they’d saved the President in exchange for her bowing out gracefully by means of a transitional parliamentary being put in place by 2006. By the time that deadline rolled around, FVR had been publicly sidelined in his own party; the Speaker had been stalled by a last gasp of People Power summoned by the Catholic hierarchy in December, 2006. So in 2007 mopping-up operations took place courtesy of the NBN-ZTE controversy which led to de Venecia’s being deposed.
Every time de Venecia previously showed signs of spilling the beans, the Palace ferociously asserted there were no beans to spill at all; failing that, that they would be self-incriminating beans, too; and failing that, that the beans ought to be spilled “in the proper forum,” which the Palace of course controlled. In other words, a thick smokescreen is laid down, as the Palace checks and re-checks the chain of command, counts votes in the House, summons and obtains manifestos of support from governors and mayors, sends emissaries with sweeteners to the bishops, puts together cabinet and other clusters to game out scenarios, and so forth.
A smokescreen buys time, and time allows you to look for opportunities. Laying down that smokescreen -with its great, rolling clouds of appeals to “objectivity,” to “sobriety,” for “stability,” and the other noxious rhetorical vapors of the official media machine, has been perfected over time, as Write Rhythm recently pointed out, showing how the institution most people rely on to get their news and comprehend the topsy-turvy world of politics, can be gamed:
Aside from the number of issues to report about this administration, The Age of Gloria is a challenging time for Filipino journalists because of another characteristic of this era. The Age of Gloria… okay let’s be more specific, Gloria is known for her strategy of divert and obfuscate. Aside from diverting funds, Gloria is a master of diverting the public’s attention to another issue (i.e. usually the economy, national unity, etc.), thereby obfuscating the original issue by bombarding people with one issue after another. Unfortunately, this has worked to her advantage as the media and civil society try to keep up with the many issues tied to her.
The difficulty in setting the agenda is that the Philippine media has to consider both what is new and timely, and what is a matter of public interest. Sometimes, the two do not go together. especially with the administration’s expertise of burying issues in the past. Sometimes, they do but not to an extent that the choice is clear. And oftentimes, one has to yield to yet another consideration of choosing the other, sexier stories.
Let me suggest that there apparently may have been political rhyme and reason to de Venecia’s loudly proclaiming he’d spill the beans, but stepping back or never letting more than a stray little bean escape -a mere hint of the pork and beans he wanted to spill. He is by temperament and instinct, I think everyone agrees, a consensus-builder, an operator, not the kind who leads cavalry charges. It certainly exasperated those egging him on to come out swinging. Of course even as people thought they were taking the measure of the man, whether from the ranks of the Palace or the various factions of the opposition, he was taking their measure, too. Having been in politics longer than most of them, it’s entirely possible he held his peace and did his Dopey act to buy time and fend off the more aggressive among those importuning him to weigh in.
If you are up against a numerically and logistically superior enemy, you do not make a frontal attack at the time and place chosen by that enemy. If the spider and the fly had been politicians, the spider would have said “bring it to the proper forum!” instead of “welcome to my parlor.”
So what do you do, if you are, in Sergio Osmena Jr.’s words, “outgunned, outgooned, and outgold”? You probe for weaknesses. You foster, in the superior enemy, a sense of its overwhelming superiority, so that the enemy begins to believe its own propaganda.
You also marshal your own forces, whatever they might be, and do what you do best: build or re-build alliances.
Both take time, and craft, not boldness; or more craftiness, at least in private, and less boldness, at least in public. Both require biding your time so you don’t play entirely according to the game plan of the enemy.
Still, while things can happen pretty fast, plots require time to be hatched. One major strength of any administration is its access to information, aided by our national propensity to boast and gossip.
For months now, it’s been talked about that de Venecia consulted other disgruntled elders, such as Fidel V. Ramos, and others, all of whom are chafing at the interminable durability of the President, as well as other power players who are inclined as much to think one step ahead as the President, whether it’s potential presidential candidates like Manuel Villar, Jr. or people fully intent on continuing to play the role of king maker, like Eduardo Cojuangco, Jr. One such meeting took place around September, where FVR is said to have received JDV in order to determine if provincemate really had the goods, and could really put up a fight.
The two supposedly reached a tacit agreement involving JDV throwing the bomb, and if it had the intended effect, it would provide the two -FVR and JDV- with a pretext to call for the scrapping of the Lakas-Kampi merger, and take an FVR-JDV loyalist rump into union with the NPC of Cojuangco and the NP of Villar. An application had been been filed with Christian Democrats International to accredit the NP as a Christian Democratic party, providing an ideological pretext for the new coalition, while the NPC could simply state that as a child of the NP, it was simply patching up the quarrel among partymates that dated back to Danding Cojuangco and Doy Laurel’s disagreement over who should have the party franchise.
All very neat, tidy, potentially formidable, a real game-changer, and one denying the President’s uncouth Kampi blowhards and the perpetual Opposition losers the satisfaction of victory. A true victory for the veterans. At least, this is the delicious scenario as they might see it.
In recent weeks, it’s been talked about that the NPC began to stall on Charter Change talks, and that the Palace decided to accelerate the killing of the impeachment complaint not only to forestall opportunities for new revelations, but also to maintain their political momentum and stampede representatives into joining the Charter Change bandwagon. The way things ebbed and flowed in the House going into the last Charter Change effort in 2006, indicates how congressmen can be mulish just when the mule drivers want them to trot. As it is, the Palace has had to give the impression it’s backpedaling a bit: Palace: No to lifting of term limits really says nothing, though. the Palace, procedurally and politically, can “exclude, dismiss, and reject” whatever it wants in public, but so long as the behind-the-scenes green light stays lit, the ultimate aim of something for everyone can be achieved. Part of the smokescreen.
And there are other leaders perpetually circling around, sniffing for opportunity. Which is why I’m inclined to think Uniffors is on to something. What do you think is a bigger motivation, and calculation, for someone like Juan Ponce Enrile? To wrap up his political career “para siempre un muchacho,” as his generation might put it, or as possibly, the transitional President of the Philippines, his portrait permanently on display in the presidential palace? Amando Doronila, who has had decades to observe his former jailer, Enrile, says a sudden toppling of a President who views him as an elderly toady is just the sort of thing to make the old schemer grin in anticipation.
Everyone knows timing is everything in politics. If everyone has begun to think of a post-Arroyo future, how do you, as Arroyo, keep yourself front and center, to continue enjoying a maximum number of political options? The President has always shown a marked preference for thinking tactically and not strategically. Her elders pride themselves on thinking strategically. The tactician has proven herself the mistress of the strategists so far.
The way to keep everyone off-kilter is not to wait for them to throw you off, but to throw them off, obviously.
How?
Start having the machinery you control belch out another smokescreen.
It seems Secretary Jesus Dureza confided to persons close to him that they were going to do “something” the next morning, to gauge the public pulse. The next morning, Dureza said his famous little prayer and what had been previously sewn up at Rep. Romualdez’s house, could begin to be delivered -Charter Change.
Charter Change primarily as smokescreen, but also, since there’s nothing to lose, as yet another item in the menu of presidential options.
Charter Change immediately swept the central story -impeachment, with all the accompanying side plots, from Bolante to the Eurogenerals, to NBN-ZTE-deal, off the table, as far as public attention was concerned.
Something beyond the Palace’s control had refocused the story not on the President’s insistence that all was well, but on everything that had made her administration unpopular in the first place. That thing was Bolante’s return, and impeachment season coming at its heels.
That thing includes reminders of all the many issues that have antagonized the public, including, I might add, the question of the BJE-MOA deal, which even the president’s critics didn’t want to touch with a ten foot pole.
Charter Change could have been resumed, with a lot of fanfare, two months ago or even two months from now. But why go great guns now?
Because it’s the only way to stop being on the defensive, and instead, go on the offensive.
But it seems the timing was not, exactly, right. Because the timing had been determined not by the Palace, from the start, but by other things.
Charter Change essentially remains a reaction to the embarrassment Bolante represents, and someone else proved capable of mastering the timeline, too.
Yesterday’s Inquirer reported on the revelations de Venecia’s already made -by means of his authorized biography- and which the House has to prevent being further elaborated upon and amplified in the House deliberations on impeachment. See JDV details secret Arroyo-ZTE meeting:
Again, timing is everything in politics. Those deliberations, at least in the Justice Committee, were supposed to be wrapped up last Friday. But the hearings on Thursday and Friday were canceled.
Timing is everything in politics. And it’s just as well that the gastrointestinal troubles of the President’s husband has him home in time to mind the store as the House of Representatives wrestles with what to do with its former Speaker, Jose de Venecia, Jr.
With the President absent (a benefit of her absences, if you’ve noticed, is that out sight means being out of mind: reducing the effect she has on public opinion, which is galvanize it, against herself), the man everyone, even her own loyalists, dislikes but needs, can take up the slack because he has nothing to lose. Ergo, First Gentleman: JDV a ‘liar’. Hey, it’s a crappy job but someone has to do it, and the President’s husband does it pretty well, in public and more crucially, behind the scenes.
JDV had wrestled with the problem of his lacking the numbers to prevent his being gagged by the House. Recall how he’d tried to do so, but coverage was cut off by the new House leadership. If one assumes he’s capable of a certain amount of introspection, he knows full well that among his many liabilities as a politician, is how he cannot make pithy remarks in front of media, he tends to meander and his rambling undercuts his effectivity. He is more suited to cajoling people in back rooms and, from time to time, making more carefully-structured speeches.
Which makes his decision to publish an authorized biography a pretty clever political move, one which undercuts his administration foes, and centers the discussion on his allegations. Critics would have to repeatedly make reference to the allegations, put forward in print; those references will make people curious; curious people will want to read what’s been written, and throughout the process, the debate will keep returning to the source document -de Venecia’s book. For this reason, I disagree with smoke who wrote, yesterday:
As far as bombshells go, this was a certifiable dud. Certainly didn’t reveal anything new, nor even added any sort of nuance to the story that’s been told over and over and over by everyone and his dog. JDV’s recollection of these events merely invites the reader to make the connections for himself – something which we’re all pretty good at; a strategy guaranteed to generate the most salacious conclusions possible.
There is a calibrated effort going on. Smoke’s entry was in response to his restating some of his original revelations. That’s just one story, in a book no one has had time to fully read, but whose contents are slowly -and surely, with timing in mind- being dribbled out by the one who authorized the book, JDV.
So, going into today’s hearing in the House, other revelations were made: JDV confirms P500,000 Palace bribe: Says cash for ‘weak’ impeach complaint. You can bet your bottom dollar that will dominate the morning news.
Again, not much by way of a revelation except it provides in-house confirmation, so to speak, of something everyone saw because the congressmen waddling out of the Palace in 2007 didn’t bother to hide their gift bags. And it confirms the testimony of Gov. Panlilio of Pampanga, another official on the Palace hit list.
But Joey de Venecia’s already said he expects his father to spill at least some beans on the issue everyone thought JDV would always remain mum on: North Rail.
We shall see how it unfolds today if it’s explosive or if it’s a dud. The Palace has to ride it out today and going into the rest of the week, trying to kill impeachment by midweek and ensure this by publicly ramping up Charter Change. JDV says he’s leaving Tuesday for Washington -where he has friends, unlike the President- which gives him a chance to peddle his book to foreign media, and leaves the Palace with no target to vent its ire on: it will have to face the accusations by its lonesome, when it’s usual tactic is to turn the tables on accusers by unleashing the attack dogs. But Washington is the last place to send those attack dogs, because the brunt of the asking will be done here at home.
Brilliant, if you ask me, true guerrilla hit-and-run tactics.
So if the de Venecias pull this off, and today turns out politically explosive, it should then be described as the day that revenge was truly proven to best be served cold. That’s another hoary old chestnut, but for some, it’s true.
If some of us would take inspiration from a Shakespearean call to sally forth, “Once more, unto the breach!” There’s the the little old prune who could just as much say, “Do or do not, there is no try.”
Update:
I find it interesting that the President’s husband had to sally forth and face the cameras. Flanked by his two sons. The President’s congressional allies have been rather subdued.
As Mon Casiple puts it in his entry for today:
Actual impeachment may be a lesser possibility based on the numbers in the House of Representatives but the political implications are certainly big enough. The revelation guarantees the focus on GMA’s foibles and constitutes further political pressure to make her resign.
The GMA majority in the House of Representatives actually rests on the fragile loyalty that money can provide. It is only feasible as long as the continued stay in power of the powers dispensing the largesse is assured. This is the reason why the current charter change move by Malacañang is being watched by all sides. When it fails, no money can dissuade the congressmen from seeking new patrons among the presidentiables. Their own survival imperative to stay in power will trump the money.
Before then, the pressure on GMA to resign is expected to increase. What is unspoken in this message is the “or else” clause. This is brought about by the interesting anti-GMA positioning of the de Venecias who are still very much a part of the ruling Lakas-CMD coalition party. Malacañang cannot anymore be certain of the loyalty of the majority in the ruling coalition, particularly the non-GMA Lakas-CMD, the NPC, House LPs, and other smaller groups. This was not present before in previous opposition initiatives.
This is an elaboration on the possible scenario I indicated above. And brings up all sorts of interesting permutations, including a cabinet declaration of presidential incapacity, which if contested by the President, leads to the question being thrown to Congress.
Blogger seven million goldfish in exasperation and alarm asks why not just shoot her? Those in a position or with an inclination to do so, are in jail. The truly big political players are not inclined to invest in or promote permanent solutions. And the question is not to eliminate her at all costs, but to save the Republic even if it means the President preterminating her term.
***
My column for today is, Congressmen respond, with the responses of Rep. Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel and Rep. Teodoro L. Locsin, Jr. to my my last column.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20081123-173962/JDV-confirms-P500000-Palace-bribe
–i do not know how can those greedy pro gma tongressmen trash the current impeachment complaint in light of JVD’s revelations. play the number game mantra again?
what follows in the coming days will be very interesting, as well as dangerous as gma will be desperate, with her back against the corner. i would like to see how can the ermita, dureza, nograles et al can spin this one! they have underestimated gma several times, this time i hope the opposition will thread carefully and not get carried away with their emotions instead!
i how wonder how gma will take this current JDV revelations, and with an egg on her face standing in front of APEC members, it must be quite embarrassing! zero credibility! she could do us all a favor, seek asylum in the USA.
…and then she can keep bush company. misery loves
company. but then again she must be made to face the criminal and civil charges again and get the punishment she, gonzalez, ermita, palparan and et al deserves.
People here have just too much time on their hands. I can’t fathom their obsession on her demise. They have made up their minds on GMA’s culpability and their goal is to just remove her from power without even thinking of the dire consequences. While everyone should be outraged on anybody who commits a wrongdoing, they should also be open to the fact that their perception of her can be completely wrong. People are tired on all of this with anti admin politicians throwing everything against her then GMA haters salivating into a frenzy then only to be dissapointed again. So what else is new, opposition tactics are very predictable devoid of any imagination. No wonder GMA always beats them on every scrimmage. Peace.
“People here have just too much time on their hands. I can’t fathom their obsession on her demise. They have made up their minds on GMA’s culpability and their goal is to just remove her from power without even thinking of the dire consequences. While everyone should be outraged on anybody who commits a wrongdoing, they should also be open to the fact that their perception of her can be completely wrong. People are tired on all of this with anti admin politicians throwing everything against her then GMA haters salivating into a frenzy then only to be dissapointed again. So what else is new, opposition tactics are very predictable devoid of any imagination. No wonder GMA always beats them on every scrimmage. Peace.”
–first, you should consider changing your pseudo name, it is not fitting. second, have you ever considered the consequence of gma’s extended stay? she has already over stayed for last four years! she has already admitted it in front of jp rizal’s monument, that she is the source of the country’s divisiveness. third, she was caught lying and actually apologized for her “lapsed of judgment”.
this is just to name a few of so many reasons why gma should go! and peace be with you also!
and your reason why she should stay is? and please don’t tell me that gma is good for pinas and not that silent majority. pro gmas are definitely not silent nor the majority!
GMA like many of her predecessors believe in her invulnerability. Like that lady in the u-tube, who had the guts to tell her subjects to let them eat cakes. The Arrogance of Power knows no bound, only one’s mortality will put to end to such sin.
@istambay…..i always thought its too late to rock the boat at this time. You have a global deflation, there are more important things to address than causing more divisiveness. the opposition should be calculating enough and prepare for 2010. They had their chance to unseat her and they lost bigtime. their egos are just too big and cant wait for their turn.
its seems like the opposition are not really serious in proving the alleged anomalies. people like me were anticipating more regarding joc-joc and its highly anticipated appearance in the senate. well all the senators were stump on his testimony and no follow up on the alleged corruption. its just goes to show they are fixated in undermining the administration and not the corruption within the system. there is an obvious disconnect. dont you think that makes the opposition lose credibility. all fireworks with nothing to show for. same situation on all alleged shenanigans.
i dont know if gma is good for the country, but i do know she is at the right moment the best bet until we a get a new leader in lieu of the current economic worldwide conditions. who do you think will be better? hmmmmm im sure the next one will be the same mold as gma. its just goes on to show that our level of politics have not matured enough to rival those of working democracies in other countries. so its better to work within the system slowly but surely to attain what we aspire for. you surely dont want a game of musical chairs on our presidency and want them ousted whenever they dont conform to the ideal leadership that some people advocate.
“hmmmmm im sure the next one will be the same mold as gma.”
–so what you’re trying to imply is why bother at all? let us just keep gma for life until we attain that political maturity? now talking about flawed premise. we have beat this argument to death over and over again, this was/is same argument used by pro-gmas to justify her continued stay in power. kabayan noli unwittingly ( i don’t know if he’s aware of this) gave the bogeyman a face, why to keep gma.
did her so called sound economic policy protected pinas from current global recession? gma’s economy policy is very dependent on OFWs remittances . take that away and pinas’ economy will surely tank worse than the rest.
@istambay…..we should exercise restraint on everything that we do. there are things much more important than trying to prove a point. you surely dont want to proceed on half baked accusations which cannot stand judicial scrutiny. you definitely dont want to file an impeachment if you know that it will not pass as you dont have the numbers. they are exercises of futility. they tend to make things worse. gma haters decides on emotions and not on solid arguments on how to convince people on their advocacy. no wonder they always get caught with their pants down when what what matters most is scrutinized.
the current worldwide economic turmoil has nothing to do with gma. our country dont have any control on external factors emanating from this implosion whoever our president is.
again, “it’s a number game”! where did i hear that before?
it is to the highest bidder, for our tongressmen/kenoygressmen is the best way to put it. nothing have to do with facts and evidence. again, with JDV talking how can these tongressmen justify their numbers game this time.
@magdiwang, i don’t see you refuting any of the charges hurled against gma. i assume you agree that she’s guilty and you are just contented to wait it out til 2010 when/IF gma steps down. i can’t believe you are willing put your and your country’s future on the sole words of a proven liar and cheat. it is like trusting your house to a known burglar hoping when you leave and come back your appliances and valuables you left would still all be there.
i admire your faith and trust gma! after all she’s all we got right? tsk tsk tsk. that’s taking belief in the inherent of human goodness to the extreme if not blind faith.
This is great, politican v politician. Country’ future decided on a sabong. Not because the president was caught cheating (game over) but because it’s game on.
Glad Locsin agrees with me on the appropriate Mindanao response.
Too bad his languish remains mentorish. He he.
“@magdiwang, i don’t see you refuting any of the charges hurled against gma. i assume you agree that she’s guilty and you are just contented to wait it out til 2010 when/IF gma steps down. i can’t believe you are willing put your and your country’s future on the sole words of a proven liar and cheat. it is like trusting your house to a known burglar hoping when you leave and come back your appliances and valuables you left would still all be there “- istambay
if the american people can wait for bush to finish his term despite all his super terrible wrong doings . why cant the filipinos?
and why not refocus all the energy on the things to come. The presidentiables from both side should better start crafting out solutions now so that come election they can present it clearly to the people.
present “them” clearly to th epeople
@istambay….i think we all guilty one way or another on the muck we are in politically. but to believe that when gma is gone will solve most of our problems borders on absurdity. why dont you hangout with your local kagawad and see for yourself the institutionalized corruption that is being perpetuated left and right. im sure you agree its not all gma’s fault but its all of us in one way or another responsible for it. we can only advance as a nation when people realized that our leaders are only as good as the people they govern.
“if the american people can wait for bush to finish his term despite all his super terrible wrong doings . why cant the filipinos?”
–c’mon you are comparing g.bush to gma? if you can please contrast the lists of transgressions gma is being accused of from bush’s. makes bush look like a petty thief being compared to a murderer!
“@istambay….i think we all guilty one way or another on the muck we are in politically. but to believe that when gma is gone will solve most of our problems borders on absurdity. why dont you hangout with your local kagawad and see for yourself the institutionalized corruption that is being perpetuated left and right. im sure you agree its not all gma’s fault but its all of us in one way or another responsible for it. we can only advance as a nation when people realized that our leaders are only as good as the people they govern.”
–so is this a reason to raise your hands up in air and just give up, because everyone else is doing it? that line of thinking is one reason why we are where we are right now! one of the most if not the most corrupt country in asia.
‘if the american people can wait for bush to finish his term despite all his super terrible wrong doings . why cant the filipinos?
and why not refocus all the energy on the things to come. The presidentiables from both side should better start crafting out solutions now so that come election they can present it clearly to the people.’
–the thing is, it is a guarantee as the sun sets in west and rises in the east that there be elections every 4 years on the first tuesday of november in US. here in pinas, we are not even sure if there will a presidential election come 2010, because the current government can’t be trusted to keep their word. add that to the back door maneuvers of gma’s allies to amend the constitution for their own benefit, we have a big IF, if she will actually give up her throne.
may kasabihan nga na action speaks louder than words. and gma’s actions doesn’t match what she says. add that to her annoying voice, can’t blame some people to not actually pay attention to whatever thing she says.
@istambay ….. we should do our utmost best to remove people who we find guilty of wrongdoing, but to hurl accusations without irrefutable basis does not do us any good. anti gma forces have already made up their mind on her guilt. no amount of reasoning can change their perception on her. when they lose they resort to name calling, make excuses and accuse everybody as paid hacks.
i believe most people want more than mere accusations. if she is deposed and we dont have solid evidence against her…. we as a nation will have our hands full trying to put out fires after her term. what is wrong on the old fashioned way how to seek justice? is that too hard to accomplish?
“@istambay ….. we should do our utmost best to remove people who we find guilty of wrongdoing, but to hurl accusations without irrefutable basis does not do us any good. anti gma forces have already made up their mind on her guilt. no amount of reasoning can change their perception on her. when they lose they resort to name calling, make excuses and accuse everybody as paid hacks.
i believe most people want more than mere accusations. if she is deposed and we dont have solid evidence against her…. we as a nation will have our hands full trying to put out fires after her term. what is wrong on the old fashioned way how to seek justice? is that too hard to accomplish?”
–what planet are you from?!
This is always to be remembered:
And there are other leaders as well as wanna-be leaders perpetually circling around, sniffing for opportunity. for gain or simply to be in the news.
mlq3,
I thought you told me you weren’t a novelist? But after reading your stuff, maybe I should have said “short story writer”?
Let’s look how you make things sound real:
“The only thing that can derail the marshaling of forces for impeachment is Charter Change.”
— Funny, this is, what, the 4th impeachment? And only Cha-cha will stop it?
———————————–
“her term expiring is at best, a moveable goal-post (create a new job, and the expiration of your term isn’t consequential; retiring isn’t a problem if besides an obliging Ombudsman and a friendly Supreme Court, you have a new President you swung the election to).”
— The paranoid delusion continues. Hurling baseless accusations at people and institutions — the “friendly” SC? Puuulease! Why do they often rule against the admin, then?
———————————-
“Palace: No to lifting of term limits really says nothing.”
— Only you seem to know who’s words are true and who’s are lies. Amazing.
———————————-
“a sudden toppling of a President who views him as an elderly toady is just the sort of thing to make the old schemer grin in anticipation.”
— Here you go: your fellow anti-GMA writer knows the Truth, eh? You guys can read Enrile’s mind…wow.
————————————-
“The President has always shown a marked preference for thinking tactically and not strategically. Her elders pride themselves on thinking strategically. The tactician has proven herself the mistress of the strategists so far.”
— Care to back these claims up with any credible evidence?
———————————-
“It seems Secretary Jesus Dureza confided to persons close to him that they were going to do “something†the next morning, to gauge the public pulse. The next morning, Dureza said his famous little prayer and what had been previously sewn up at Rep. Romualdez’s house, could begin to be delivered -Charter Change.”
— Please tell us to whom Dureza confided this to. Who is your source again? (I ask, since there is tangible proof that the Inquirer has a continuous history of legal/ethical problems due to its unprofessional use of “sources”). Because using a prayer like that to float a trial balloon has got to be one of the most ridiculous ideas I have ever heard of! Dureza and the Palace — even you admit — are sharp political players…and out of a million ways to test market something, that has to be the millionth option to turn to. Those guys aren’t that stupid. Claiming that they are is, well, ludicrous at best.
—————————–
“Charter Change immediately swept the central story -impeachment, with all the accompanying side plots, from Bolante to the Eurogenerals, to NBN-ZTE-deal, off the table, as far as public attention was concerned.”
— I don’t think the evidence bears this out. Public attention to Cha-cha has been muted. Just like there is little interest in the impeachment (although JDV will spice things up today in front of ANC). The oust-GMA types still don’t understand that their words are not resonating with the rest of us.
——————————————————————
—————————————————————
Cha-cha as a smokescreen against the impeachment??? The only ones who will buy that are those who think that this impeachment complaint is a bona fide attempt to improve the Philippines. And that’s a pretty small crowd, nowadays.
By the way, mlq3, this quote from someone you cited is funny: “The strongest hard evidence, The Hello Garci tapes, led to nothing,”
You see??? There are still people who think that the Garci Tapes was hard evidence…they don’t even know that the SC opened the ballot boxes and verified that there were no meaningful anomalies!!!
So…I guess there is still an audience for the fairy tales you are writing.
“if the american people can wait for bush to finish his term despite all his super terrible wrong doings . why cant the filipinos?”
“and why not refocus all the energy on the things to come. The presidentiables from both side should better start crafting out solutions now so that come election they can present it clearly to the people.”
In the midst of the ongoing creeping and crawling effective nationalization of the U.S. financial system which is a tribute to the post depression institutions – the FDIC and the more effective Federal Reserve. The executive department has been proven to be almost useless.
The Justice System in the U.S. ripped the attempt to initiate the unitary President. By the time Obama comes into office the Bush Doctrine is already torn to shreds. The elections sealed it.
Citiroup the mightiest of them all will herald the true state of affairs for everyone to see.
Nation states operate on faith based currencies as the ultimate safety net for economies. The taxpayer in the end pays the price.
In the Philippines it is clear we do not have that type of faith in institutions simply because they exist more in the breach.
Re-establishing and /or strengthening institutions are generational in nature.
But then you are back to the chicken and egg situation.
Point to one politico who has spoken in this manner about moving to put short terms measures in place but keeping the main focus on the long term effort at nation building.
The capture of state power by politicos is more like a corporate takeover battle.
And that’s why, hvrds, it’s important to protect institutions. That’s why it is necessary to stay within the laws and processes.
It’s for the long term.
That’s why unsupported allegations, half-baked concepts for “saving the Philippines” and a call for unconstitutional (and potentially violent) confrontation have fallen on deaf ears.
Radical, short-term and unscrupulous attempts to create a government/corporate takeover is anathema to long-term institutional nation-building.
“The paranoid delusion continues. Hurling baseless accusations at people and institutions  the “friendly†SC? Puuulease! Why do they often rule against the admin, then?”
–i think what manolo is talking about when he referred to as friendly SC is about the coming year when several SC justices will be retiring and gma has the power to appoint SC justices who will have favorable attitude towards malacanang (favorable is just a term i picked to put it in a nicer way). gets mo man?
“Here you go: your fellow anti-GMA writer knows the Truth, eh? You guys can read Enrile’s mind…wow.”
–reading someone’s mind has nothing to do with it. where have you been in the past years? if you don’t know enrile by now, you will never never know him ( the last line sounds familiar to you?).
“– Please tell us to whom Dureza confided this to. Who is your source again? (I ask, since there is tangible proof that the Inquirer has a continuous history of legal/ethical problems due to its unprofessional use of “sourcesâ€Â). Because using a prayer like that to float a trial balloon has got to be one of the most ridiculous ideas I have ever heard of! Dureza and the Palace  even you admit  are sharp political players…and out of a million ways to test market something, that has to be the millionth option to turn to. Those guys aren’t that stupid. Claiming that they are is, well, ludicrous at best.”
— and what planet are you from too?
geo, you are welcome, once more, and yet again, to do your share of the homework and rebutt why you disagree with my view that the president is a tactical and not strategic person. that’s how i see it, that’s how some people who’ve worked for her see it (including me), that’s how i see others who i think think more strategically and how they see themselves if you talk to people close to them. why don’t you do your poll of people you know who have worked for our past presidents and take your own survey? i think the way she quite obviously zeroes in on every emergency to the exclusion of everything else, shows her tactical obsession.
re: supreme court:
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/special-report/10/22/08/voting-pattern-supreme-court-justices-shows-they-play-politics
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/research/10/23/08/voting-pattern-supreme-court-justices
i will not reveal my sources. but i’m sure you have your own. if you don’t, too bad; if you’d rather not, i understand; if you don’t believe me, be my guest. as for their being not that stupid, what made you think this is a situation that calls for finesse?
rep. villafuerte, of the president’s own pet party, is explicit about charter change by means of bludgeoning the senate with the supreme court:
http://newsbreak.com.ph/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5605&Itemid=88889051
and as your perpetually trumpeting there is no evidence, you only say that because you know the president cannot be sued in court during her term and that impeacment is never allowed to get to the point of actual presentation of evidence.
and by voiding any efforts to piece the story together:
see hutchcroft
http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1018&Itemid=31
on nbn-zte:
http://newsbreak.com.ph/index.php?option=com_magazine&func=show_edition&id=34&Itemid=88889432
Here’s thads bentulan’s ppt on how the cuts worked out to result in the eventual pricing:
Derivation of the $329 Million
on garci:
http://newsbreak.com.ph/index.php?option=com_magazine&func=show_edition&id=26&Itemid=88889438
here’s a small part of the study that took a couple of years for the FPJ supporters to put together:
PCIB Charts – Data 12
so of course even before the official counting the massaging of the numbers had taken place; garci was called in when the sophisticated cheating still wasn’t enough, and even after garci they had to doctor the documents in congress:
http://www.pcij.org/blog/?p=1127
the documents the supreme court looked at.
on oda:
http://www.pcij.org/stories/2008/oda.html
regarding public opinion, this is an internal ppt used during the anti cha cha campaign in 2006, it was never released to the public, the survey results were purely for internal use in the campaign:
SO2.0
“So…I guess there is still an audience for the fairy tales you are writing.”
–but you’re one of the audience! why is that? and you still keep coming back to post and read manolo’s blog day after day! to refute the so called fairy tales? why is that again? oh for the good of the country! i get it!
istambay,
only the President can appoint justices of the Supreme Court – its in the Constitution!
only the paranoid will insinuate that the SC appointees are beholden to their “appointer”
but for your peace of mind, try joining the Bantay Korte Suprema of Sen.Pangilinan so you can have some sort of participation in the selection of SC justices
“i dont know if gma is good for the country, but i do know she is at the right moment the best bet until we a get a new leader in lieu of the current economic worldwide conditions. who do you think will be better?”
1. She has been in power since 2001. Haven’t you noticed the droves leaving the country looking for work, any kind of work? How come she has not been able to provide jobs at least to even slow down the emigration of job seekers?
2. How is it that after all her bragging about 8 years of economic management and people feeding on the fruits of her hard work more people are hungry now?
3. How are education and health care faring these days, after 8 years of poor oriented poicies and programs?
“only the paranoid will insinuate that the SC appointees are beholden to their “appointer†”
–and what do you call brion to name a few? only in the perfect world or onli n da pilipins! and perfect example, neri’s conversation with president on NBN-ZTE deal being covered by executive privilege, a matter of national security.
HOHOHO.
“‘if the american people can wait for bush to finish his term despite all his super terrible wrong doings . why cant the filipinos?”
Why can’t the Filipinos be as stupid as the Americans?
Anyway, they redeemed themselves with Obama.
“but for your peace of mind, try joining the Bantay Korte Suprema of Sen.Pangilinan so you can have some sort of participation in the selection of SC justices”
–yeah and malacanang can send that list back for names will have their choice in it. bet you’ve heard it before. it called stocking the SC. c’mon it’s too late to act naive in this part of game. i maybe older than most of you here, but i’m not senile yet.
“Why can’t the Filipinos be as stupid as the Americans?
Anyway, they redeemed themselves with Obama.”
–HOHOHO! cheers to that.
“Charter Change immediately swept the central story -impeachment, with all the accompanying side plots, from Bolante to the Eurogenerals, to NBN-ZTE-deal, off the table, as far as public attention was concerned.â€Â
– I don’t think the evidence bears this out. Public attention to Cha-cha has been muted. Just like there is little interest in the impeachment (although JDV will spice things up today in front of ANC). The oust-GMA types still don’t understand that their words are not resonating with the rest of us.
GEO ANO BA ANG HEADLINES NG MGA DYARYO FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO, IMPEACHMENT O CHA-CHA RELATED?
folks, please review the entry. it’s about *political timing*.
sorry to digress from the main topic.
only the paranoid will insinuate that the SC appointees are beholden to their “appointer†Anthony Scalia Said:
You can tell to the late President Eisenhower on his appointment of Chief Justice Earl Warren:
As a general rule, Presidents nominate individuals who broadly share their ideological views. In many cases, a Justice’s decisions may be contrary to what the nominating President anticipated. A famous instance was Chief Justice Earl Warren; President Eisenhower expected him to be a conservative judge, but his decisions are arguably among the most liberal in the Court’s history. Eisenhower later called the appointment “the biggest damn fool mistake I ever made.”
“ANO BA ANG HEADLINES NG MGA DYARYO FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO, IMPEACHMENT O CHA-CHA RELATED?”
___________________________
Baka walang pambili ng dyaryo ang karamihan ng mga pinoy.
manuelbuencamino,
“1. She has been in power since 2001. Haven’t you noticed the droves leaving the country looking for work, any kind of work? How come she has not been able to provide jobs at least to even slow down the emigration of job seekers?”
the exodus have been continuing since Cory’s time
its not the task of the president to create the jobs
“2. How is it that after all her bragging about 8 years of economic management and people feeding on the fruits of her hard work more people are hungry now?”
unabated population growth. thanks to the babies assembled during the times of Cory, FVR and Erap (and gloria’s early years). the pie isn’t growing as fast as the number of ‘eaters’
so yes, more people are hungry now
“3. How are education and health care faring these days, after 8 years of poor oriented poicies and programs?”
the poor oriented poicies and programs have been there for decades
“Why can’t the Filipinos be as stupid as the Americans? Anyway, they redeemed themselves with Obama.—
the Filipinos have redeemed themselves by not supporting that bumbling group called ‘united opposition’ who is to be largely credited for gloria’s continued stay in the Palace
it seems those who insist on one-impeachment-complaint-to-be-deliberated-by-the-justice-committee-then-to-be-referred to-the-plenary are beyond redemption
it never worked since 2005, yet it is still done today, hoping for a new outcome!
“…ANO BA ANG HEADLINES NG MGA DYARYO FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO, IMPEACHMENT O CHA-CHA RELATED?”
mga dyaryo ba ‘kamo? ilan lang ba yang dyaryo? they had to put something in the headlines to sell copies. the media people had jobs to do.
as always, media people had to say something
@mb, filipinos have been leaving our country for many years. the sudden loosening of immigration rules and the greying of industrialized countries accelerated the exodus. im not sure if any president can prevent that as population growth cant keep up with economic growth. we should attain 20% growth annually to provide all the jobs needed and not even china can do that.
the last time i check the current administration have attained the highest average real economic growth rate the last five years. Now just like emigration, gma was not entirely responsible for the growth as she benefited from external factors.
there is a disconnect if there are more people who are poor or not. self rated surveys are subjective at best, objective measurements like gnp per capita is a better data and that has been increasing the last five years.
infant mortality, maternal mortality, life span and clean water availability which are the best measures for health has not deteriorated under the current administration. im not sure what are you referring about.
on education, i dont have any opinion as i dont have any data.
yours are based more on opinion than facts.
In her Case (GMA) she will appoint (not nominate) individuals that will share her “ideologigal” views, in a political sense of Philippines Justice, and since there are few cases brought before the SC have direct bearing with the Personalities in the administration (Neri, Abalos, Garci, Bolante, etc, etc,) it will be very helpful during her terms and the terms of her annointed succesor.
and as your perpetually trumpeting there is no evidence, you only say that because you know the president cannot be sued in court during her term and that impeacment is never allowed to get to the point of actual presentation of evidence.
***************************
In addition to what mlq3 said,
absence of evidence is not evidence of absence (of wrongdoing). A boxer who brags that he is undefeated, but keeps avoiding a fight is making a hollow claim.
MLQ3
Timing? Filipinos never learn. Everything to us is luck or miracles. Why can’t we just have reform because that we get that irresistible and ultimately undeniable urge to do what is right?
brian, it’s not luck though there is that element in any person’s life and career, including a politician’s. because doing right requires engaging in a plan of action when there are many others with their own plan of action. so politics and its continuation by other means, does involve strategy, timing, good fortune, etc. it’s like saying why can’t you write a novel in one go without outlining the plot or something.
saxnviolins,
impeachment attempts go nowhere because the bright minds of the anti gloria school, for whatever reason, do not and never follow the precedent of how Erap got impeached.
impossible now? it seems just as impossible then.
only 1/3 signatures are needed
“absence of evidence is not evidence of absence (of wrongdoing).”
but presence of evidence is the only way to resolve the issue of ‘is absence of evidence evidence of absence”?
stated differently – invoking “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence (of wrongdoing)” is no substitute for presenting evidence.
” A boxer who brags that he is undefeated, but keeps avoiding a fight is making a hollow claim.”
as far as i know, no boxer will brag he is undefeated. Floyd Mayweather and Rocky Marciano never bragged about their spotless record.
Talk about timing. Miriam just joined Enrile’s “majority”.
Miriam also had perfect timing when she dumped Marcos and ruled in favor of JBL Reyes, Lino Brocka et al as an RTC judge, shortly before EDSA. Prior to that, she was a quiet little Marcos appointee.
Rats bailing out is a typical FVR tactic. Remember in EDSA, there was a constant stream of news about this and that military official defecting from Fabian Ver to the FVR/Enrile camp.
MLQ3,
I think in a revolution, motive and opportunity are dichotomies as opposed to being elements that go together like sugar and cream. I want revolution/ reform that is all about MOTIVE, which is made up by the people. In a true revolution, opportunity is a non-element.
My formula is simple: 1) free flow of opinion, 2) the right idea, 3) people decide to adopt the right idea, 4) revolution.
This should be true in whatever circumstances. It’s not as if the democratic hoi polloi has enough information and business sense to delay reform just because the world economy is bad. So we can’t wait for the right economic environment, right? So why wait for these politicians, military men to come about.