After Edsa Dos, I expressed the opinion, mainly in private, that having stepped down, and having avoided bloodshed, Joseph Estrada should be left alone in Greenhills and left to wallow in his riches. Ouster, under the circumstances, was enough. When Edsa Dos forces insisted he should be thrown in jail, again, I expressed reservations on the basis of the country remaining deeply divided, and on the principle that you do not kick a man when he is down. When the pressure to charge him and try him proved irresistible, I cautioned that pending the trial, he should still be allowed to stay in Greenhills, as humiliating him would not serve the interest of justice.
What happened of course was that he was clumsily arrested, and treated in such a manner as to provoke the Edsa Tres revolt. A revolt the forces salivating over his humiliation proved powerless to prevent or even counter. The reformist instincts of the President were swiftly abandoned at that point, when it proved her Civil Society allies couldn’t protect her; instead, the military and the operators shielded her and the inevitable slide to 2003 (her decision to run again), 2004 (the manner in which the campaign was conducted), 2005 (the divorce between the President and what remained of the reformists within her government) and 2006 began.
After having gone against her instincts and ordering the arrest of Estrada, the President always proved ambiguous about the trial and a conviction: from day one, she’d preferred exile as a solution. If that proved impossible, she would be persistent in offering a pardon. Meanwhile, she expressed no dissatisfaction with the trial being dragged out, since a quick resolution of the case wouldn’t do her any good (in the absence of a willingness, on Estrada’s part, to recognize her legitimacy by accepting a pardon from her), and while a drawn-out trial also served Estrada’s purposes (either postponing an inevitable conviction or keeping him in the limelight as some sort of self-styled prisoner of conscience), neither side seemed capable of figuring out what a possible compromise could be.
And so, earlier this year I proposed that Estrada cut the Gordian knot and run for office. It offered up a possibility for the public to resolve something the court was proving unable to do. Estrada preferred to continue posturing from his Tanay rest house. After the election, when it became clear Estrada’s endorsement was not as powerful as people had expected, and when the President for her part, saw the public mood (nationally-speaking) was completely against her, the trial began to move toward a resolution. On the day the verdict was handed down, both Estrada and Arroyo loyalists discovered they stood larger in their own minds than in the eyes of a public that shrugged off Estrada’s conviction. Both saw themselves in the mirror, and didn’t like what they saw: they saw themselves as sliding, inexorably, too, into the has-been column of the political divide.
With neither side having shown themselves as particularly devoted to the law, I felt that the whole thing should be done with, and Estrada pardoned. I did end up qualifying that opinion with a further opinion that a pardon shouldn’t include his taking home the loot. The opinion of Prof. Popoy de Vera struck me, which was, that the Filipino concept of justice is restitution and not retribution -as he later told me, besides that was the public view that Estrada shouldn’t keep his loot, and having been disgraced, he should bow out of politics.
The pardon, as it’s emerged, involves exactly that, and suggests at whom the pardon is aimed, in p.r. terms: the Estrada constituency among the masses. The pardon contains a pledge (whether meaningless or not) that Estrada will not seek elective office, and that he forfeits the properties and monies ordered confiscated by the court.
Estrada, for his part, had angled for nothing less than a full, sweeping pardon. the President, on the other hand, anxious as she was to grant that pardon, had to be able to throw some sort of bone to her constituents and so, made a counter-proposal: Estrada should accept a conditional pardon, the only condition being his being unable to keep the loot (which Estrada, after all, had unblinkingly claimed was never his). What seems to have finally clinched the deal was something personal and not political -the widely-held assumption that Estrada’s mother doesn’t have very much longer left to live.
Add to that the unappetizing prospects, for the Estrada, of continued detention (however pleasant it is, but from his perspective still an intolerable situation), his being unsure of whether he would secure the overturning of the verdict on appeal, and the chance that a future government might not be anxious to pander to him the way the President has, and you can well imagine why Estrada would want to settle things now, and forget any chance to achieve a proper vindication. Add to this, finally, the pending transfer of Estrada to New Bilibid prisons: being fingerprinted in an orange jumpsuit, shaved of his Elvis-style pompadour, having to endure a jail cell.
You can imagine, too, that the President, beset on all sides by problems of her own making, and who never wanted things to reach this point, anyway, would want to settle matters, too, and her willingness to take one more gamble by saying she’d allow his being sent to Bilibid.
And so, they sealed the deal.
I am not surprised by the pardon, and I’m generally inclined to look at it the way Torn & Frayed does (he opposed amnesty, though I think amnesty would have been more politically acceptable all around), but I think it does leave a little room for further interpretation.
It tells us that the President has more to gain in terms of good will from the Estrada constituency than she has to lose from Edsa Dos forces who will be angry, upset, and shocked, but who in the end lack what matters most to the President: numbers, in terms of votes, and a willingness to make those numbers count, whether in terms of public protests or going to the polls.That political math has been clear since May, 2001: and the losers here are the Edsa Dos veterans who are shocked and appalled, only now, not least because the folly of their support for the President has been exposed, not to the President but to themselves. As far as Estrada’s supporters are concerned he made the best out of a raw deal.
But it also tells us that Estrada is permanently incapable of saving anything beyond his own hide. In the end he had to kneel and beg for mercy from a President he’d never recognized as legitimate; he would not risk vindicating himself in the courts, the ultimate demonstration of his disbelieving his own rhetoric. He can always say what does it profit a man, if he is unable to bury his mother as a free man? As far as that goes, he’s right; but he would have been allowed to bury her anyway, but he could not allow himself to endure the prospects of the Supreme Court upholding his conviction, or worse, his being hauled off to Muntinlupa to endure the kind of imprisonment regularly endured by his constituents.
In the strange, because almost mystical, way our society manages to see rays of sunshine, public opinion had finally welcomed Estrada’s conviction as closure to the great divisions of 2001. His supporters could proclaim him a willing martyr; his critics could view it as vindication. Estrada and Arroyo both managed to deny that closure to both, and that’s the reason there’s public dissatisfaction. at least withing Edsa Dos and some Edsa Tres circles, with the deal.
One comment I heard, from some Edsa Dos veterans, was, “and he didn’t even spend a single day in jail.” I understand some Estrada supporters were upset, too, because their idol caved in and left them twisting in the wind, proclaiming the illegitimacy of an administration from which Estrada himself decided to seek a pardon only a legitimate president can grant.
What this has achieved is that it has simply reshuffled the deck chairs on the Titanic. The President removed the chains keeping steerage from joining the First Class passengers on the deck of the sinking ship. Those astute enough to realize the ship’s doomed long ago fired the distress rockets and clambered into lifeboats.
In a nation where symbolism trumps substance, Estrada never had to suffer for his rhetoric, the President never gave the legal process to reach its final conclusion; there wasn’t even a token effort at proving justice could be tempered with mercy; instead, mercenary calculations were passed off as executive mercy. But, as Amang Rodriguez so famously said, “in the long of time, we shall success.”
Much as everyone saw the pardon coming, what I don’t think anyone outside of official circles expected was for it to be used so crudely, so patently politically: a historic verdict required a historic demonstration of presidential statesmanship; instead, it was a tool used to blunt the effects of embarrassing headlines resulting from the Senate hearing; and it was a brusque dismissal of those who, all these eventful years, stubbornly insisted on giving the President the benefit of the doubt because she had to be, somehow, better than her predecessor.
What happens next? It remains to be seen whether Estrada will be grateful to Arroyo, and whether a new Arroyo-Estrada alliance is in the making. I can only hope so. It relieves the opposition of the burden of having to maintain an uneasy peace with the Estrada forces, and finally offers up the prospects for the veterans of Edsa 1 and 2 to reunite.
Then again, it may also give Estrada a new lease on political life. But the damage has been done; a free man, Estrada is free to return to engaging in his vices in full public view, and to prove himself ungrateful and incapable of doing anything for those who loyally stood by his side since his fall from power.
If Estrada were to run for the presidency again, he would lose. But he can begin investing, quite heavily, in the political futures of his sons. What that future is, remains to be seen. now he is just another ex-president. He has achieved his aims, and how minimal they turned out to be. There is nothing left for him to do, not least because who, now, will follow him after his kneeling before the President?
And as for the President, it’s back to the War Room because so many other fights still need to be fought, and any relief she obtains always proves increasingly temporary. Tuesday and Wednesday night, apparently, neophyte congressmen were brought to the Palace for their egos to be stroked. Last night, a larger meeting of all non-opposition congressmen was held at the Palace, ostensibly to survey the political situation, but possibly to consider the party line concerning the President’s cash gifts, since the governors already came up with their own excuse.
Jove Francisco chronicles how reporters found out about the pardon, which wasn’t expected to be announced until Friday. Reporters apparently take their cue from how the President color-codes her dresses: if she’s in blue, you know she’s in crisis mode. Also, Jove mentions a gathering of the Cabalens in the Palace, which made for a surreal scene:
I heard some people who witnessed the event comment that the event was a bad idea. That it won’t help their cabalen-PGMA any bit. Imagine, here’s a President who has been distancing herself from the payola issue, and then here are Mayors saying stuff like “they need the controversial cash gifts” … inside the palace mismo. In bad taste, at sino man daw nag isip, – malamang di nag iisip. Ill advised, ika nga.
As for the goings on in the Palace bunker, word is that Sec. Bunye’s assumption of the role of Acting Executive Secretary is in preparation for his assuming the role in a more permanent capacity, which is why two deputy presidential spokesmen have been appointed; Sec. Ermita, according to scuttlebutt has been given a one-way ticket to America, and before he left, he told his people to start packing their things.
The reason the announcement of the pardon was moved to Thursday, instead of Friday, when the Palace prefers to make big announcements so it has the weekend to survey the scene and gage public reaction, is chronicled in turn by Uniffors. It’s a great read. And explains why the Palace dispensed with its only make breaking news as the weekend starts rule of thumb.
For a roundup of blogger’s reactions to the pardon, see tonyocruz.com.
Technorati Tags: Edsa, philippines, politics, president
cvj,
I don’t know, but seeing Erap on TV and listening to his speech, even thanking GMA had a very chilling effect. I went with the LFS (funny 20 years ago), I’ve seen EDSA 1, even campaigned for it against my father’s wishes (a Marcos’ loyalist), been with EDSA 2, and you know the elation you all feel with the outpouring of emotions, you don’t feel the heat, even the hunger (because of baon of course) and you stand there witnessing history in the making, all hopes up. You only feel the days’ toll when you finally go to bed.
And here we go again! Sometimes I’m tempted to send my son to go live with relatives abroad to shield him from all this, but then again, its history in the making, I want him to experience being part of it and not just read it in some taxtbook years from now…
This site–> http://www.petitiononline.com/ is good for online petitions. This is where people signed up against the Desperate Housewives slur. If, we don’t have a good online petition going around, we can use that site.
Anyway, there’s this speech by William Wallace (Braveheart) thats always appropriate for events like this, TDC quoted it before, by the way, where is TDC?
MBW, during my first few years in early 70s to half of 80s I watched with admiration though fearing to high heavens of what might happened to my youngest twin sisters, who were in the front line during EDSA 1, they were what we call in the old days “idealists” and activists, but when they saw most of their “compatriots” who turned colours, especially the one who worked for NEDA with her fiancee, they too decided that their career and families are more important, one packed her bag in early 90s move to here then to u.s. with her fellow m.d. husband and the other one, married to the nephew of late Pres. Magsaysay, decided to move to California. It was a struggle to relocate, but like most of idealists turned pragmatists, i don’t blame them a bit.
But in Helga’s stead, I knew from her that she too used to reside here in Toronto, but decided to return to join the struggle in person and I wish her and the rest the BEST of LUCK…
Ramrod, ok. Maybe it’s because i didn’t hear Erap’s speech so there was no chilling effect for me. I’m more optimistic today than i was the first time i participated in this blog. At that time, people still can get away with giving GMA the benefit of the doubt. Not so now and the trend does not seem to be reversing.
TDC = MAV = The Equalizer = Manindigan!
Equalizer, correct me if i’m wrong.
I sincerely ditto that Vic, to Helga and B&W, the BEST OF LUCK!
My mother and sister who are still living in the Philippines (my sister refuses to relocate because my mother refuses to do so and so does my brother)are prepared to join the B&W calls anytime.
Is that so, cvj? I had a half inkling that TdC was The Equalizer but all four in one?
MBW, i don’t think TdC ever hid that fact.
helga, ramrod and others, you all have my sympathy.
but a lot of equations have changed now. i agree with ramrod. it was a tactical move ( erap pardon ). i think the midddle class and the groups not necessarilty identifed with Erap groups are the losers. come to think of it, are we not becoming too self-righteous to even think of treating erap loyalists as dirt as to say that it will be a good riddance as we can now move againbst GMA with the Erap boys not tainting the movement. think that is the biggest mistake of anti-GMA forces. We always thnik that we are the best and the purest. now that we dont have the warm bodies of the erap loylaists. what are we goinbg to do. Rely on tjose middle class who proved to be very unreliable in the past.Who is that philospher thinker that the most unreliable political ally is the middele class. Historly will tell us that successful revolutions are only waged by the upper class– american and soviet revolutions –and the lower class– china and french revolutions. I am not very hopeful with the BW movement and toher midle class groups althoyugh i believe in the sincerity of some of their convenors.
cvj,
No, I don’t think so either.
Let’s start by supporting Sen. Trillanes’s online petition “..Calling for the immediate resignation of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Noli de Castro and for the Holding of Special (“Snap”) Elections within 60 days.”
I won’t give a copy-&-pasted link here to bypass moderation, but here it is: triple-w dot petitiononline dot com slash snap08 slash petition dot html.
Did everybody get it? 🙂
frombelow, my sense is that disgust at Erap’s release cuts across all classes. EDSA Tres is now divided. Also, the French Revolution was instigated by the Middle Class.
Vic, Ramrod, cvj, Tagabukid, Tsokolet and everyone
Re: Erap pardon
One thing that’s absolutely dead certain, judging from the commenters’ posts in the two heavily commented blogs, this one act of Gloria’s has united at least 3 groups of people: the pro-Erap, the anti-Erap and the indifferent to Erap but vehemently anti-Gloria (and if I may say, yours truly belong to the last one) against her.
I used to be for snap but then Loren withdrew her protest and now Noli is legit.
So I prefer that gloria leave Malacanan and Noli take over. As Nene Pimentel said, kaya na natin tiisin si Noli for two and a half years,
I have reservations about stepping outside the constitution. People power is constitutional. A snap election is not.
One reason why I’m against stepping outside the constitution is we might have to draft a new charter just to make the snap election legal.
Once we mess with the constitution, we might end up writing one that’s parliamentary and unicameral. And then we end up institutionalizing what we hoped to eliminate through a snap election – the erosion of checks and balances.
If there’s anything we need for the next decade or so, it is more checks and balances among co-equal branches of government.
Dr. D, done! thanks for the pointer.
I am happy for former president Joseph Ejercito Estrada and his family.
-Former Pres. Corazon Aquino
mbw:is the pope catholic?
Agree with cvj, “Also, the French Revolution was instigated by the Middle Class.” The French bourgeoisie (middle class) instigated it because of over taxation, corruption, etc.
Huh? “mbw:is the pope catholic?”
The Equalizer, he sure is — Roman Catholic more precisely.
mbw:think!of your answer .
beware of French lace cookies
ana:your 10:56 post
So what is my take on Eraps’ pardon given by Malakanyang?
First Erap had been wasting his time in prison for a long time without ever being proven guilty at that. To date he’s only been proven guilty this year and yet he had to suffer the humiliation of being an ousted President charged with sorruption Etc… while Imelda Marcos, GMA, Joc-joc Bolante, The comelec amongst others gets away with their crimes…
You see life just isn’t fair, but that doesn’t mean that only the ones in power should have the benefit of the doubt.
What Erap did to date is to face his accusers head on and place his faith in the justice system that actually played him bad. And that was perhaps his downfall… he trusted too much.
So when I’m asked if I agree with the pardon of Erap I think the question should be placed in the context of all the criminals outside of prison and who’s forever eluded justice due to influence and power.
Honestly speaking I admire Erap for standing out and facing the truth for all its worth he’s one helluva brave person. You must give him credit for that.
Yet…
I do not agree with Eraps’ pardon If justice is to be served righteously and equally to each and everyone and that also applies to the President who’s forever eluded justice.
I do not agree with Eraps’ pardon because it bodes darkly for the plight of GMA and other criminals that by virtue of influence gets away with crimes against humanity.
I do not agree with Eraps’ pardon because it is given out by a President who cheated her way to office.
But let justice be afforded to the ones’ who had been asking for it for a long time and who deserves it.
But personally… justice in the Philippines? Are you crazy?
Bon, d’accord, The Equalizer…
cjv
people here in caloocan are not disgusted with the pardon of erap, to tell you. it is the topic here while people are waiting for the nightly supply of water. i am from so i should know. what they are saying is that GMAQ is using pardon to appease erpa followers. I am sorry to disappoint you. But the people here are hailing the release of erap. so i belive the next people power will only be composed of perfumed ladies form Makati and tier husbands .
tdc = mav = manindigan = sparks = equalizer
are you the guy who’s using bencard’s handle?
cvj, I hope all of us here would spread the word about it. If we could do it against Desperate Housewives, we surely could do it against the corrupt, deceitful, murderous, illegal tenant in Malacañang, with whom our lives and our children’s future are at stake.
The Desperate Housewives uproar was fueled by the snowballing power of email forwarding, so I’m raring to forward any email message that could capture the sentiment of most of us here (of course, the message would include a call to sign this petition), but I have neither the time nor the eloquence to write one.
Maybe something could be started here??
Btw, I’m a member of 20+ yahoogroups, so just imagine the impact.
Si la laideur était une brique,Gloria serait la Grande Muraille de Chine.
my boss is already a FREEMAN!
jose flammingo:no
Co-opted is a better word
Hahahahahahha! “Si la laideur était une brique,Gloria serait la Grande Muraille de Chine.” Funny your quotes are The Equalizer, really funny.
(But The Equalizer, I think in fairness to those who don’t understand the language, would be good if you could post subtitles… Thanks.)
For starters, “Bon, d’accord” is “Well, OK..”
DR:D the “desperate Housewives” and the Malu Fernadez cases generated a lot of uproar because it affected the EGO of the masses.The pardon did not.sorry!
I’m with your cause.But let’s be realistic with what the Pinoy really thinks.
Manuel,
Snap election? Do we have laws that would allow that to happen? What about the cost of holding such exercise
Trillanes’ petition on to oust Gloria. People can try. But I doubt if Gloria will ever resign. And I dont want her to resign.
B&W protest, OK na rin just to keep the “fire” burning…
I woudl still go with impeachment.
If ugliness were a brick, my mother-in-law would be the Great Wall of China.
Hihihihi, The Equalizer, you ARE funny!
The best way to alleviate pain is through humor.Thanks God you are so far away from this living hell created by my mother in law.
Rego,
If it’s me and not Manuel Quezon you are reacting to….read my comment I’m not hot about snap election anymore and I state why,
rmarod:hope NEMO is ok now,God bless my friend!
Yes The Equalizer, I agree. Well at least, it’s a good start to “infect” our fellow email-checking Pinoy brothers and sisters of our outrage over the culture of impugnity that characterizes this administration, and hopefully that would lead to an awakening of their nationalistic spirit (I believe it’s somewhere there.)
And it’s not only about the pardon. As has been said here, to many of us it seems, it became the straw that broke the camel’s back. Let’s just hope and pray that somehow it would yield a similar effect to our kababayans, that somehow they would also see the current situation the way we’re seeing it.
Dr D: we have a very apathetic bunch now.Even students are quiet.different during the struggle versus the conjugal dictatorship!
whatever, i’ll take what i can. 😀
Dr. D, will do my part.
The Equalizer: I guess there’s no harm if we try. If hoax email chain messages get forwarded, so can this be. It’s also a good way to send the message to the silently indignant that they’re not alone.
where were all of you when pardon for erap was just being proposed? time to shed crocodile tears again, huh? that b & w (blame & whine) movement, were were you? dead or near death but suddenly came alive at the first sight of blood?
why didn’t you have “people power” then, or was it fpw (few people power)? hypocrites, hypocrites, hypocrites!
Bencard, i know you can’t bring yourself to blame Gloria but i know you’re also hurting inside so it’s alright if you take it out on us.
the deed is done. you can’t put the genie back into the bottle. you can stage a lonely march at edsa without erap’s minions. meanwhile, i’ll have the rags ready to wife off you-know-what from your face, johnnie-come-latelys.
The online petition should be cleaned up.
“’ll have the rags ready to wife off”
what does your wife got to do with this?lol