After Edsa Dos, I expressed the opinion, mainly in private, that having stepped down, and having avoided bloodshed, Joseph Estrada should be left alone in Greenhills and left to wallow in his riches. Ouster, under the circumstances, was enough. When Edsa Dos forces insisted he should be thrown in jail, again, I expressed reservations on the basis of the country remaining deeply divided, and on the principle that you do not kick a man when he is down. When the pressure to charge him and try him proved irresistible, I cautioned that pending the trial, he should still be allowed to stay in Greenhills, as humiliating him would not serve the interest of justice.
What happened of course was that he was clumsily arrested, and treated in such a manner as to provoke the Edsa Tres revolt. A revolt the forces salivating over his humiliation proved powerless to prevent or even counter. The reformist instincts of the President were swiftly abandoned at that point, when it proved her Civil Society allies couldn’t protect her; instead, the military and the operators shielded her and the inevitable slide to 2003 (her decision to run again), 2004 (the manner in which the campaign was conducted), 2005 (the divorce between the President and what remained of the reformists within her government) and 2006 began.
After having gone against her instincts and ordering the arrest of Estrada, the President always proved ambiguous about the trial and a conviction: from day one, she’d preferred exile as a solution. If that proved impossible, she would be persistent in offering a pardon. Meanwhile, she expressed no dissatisfaction with the trial being dragged out, since a quick resolution of the case wouldn’t do her any good (in the absence of a willingness, on Estrada’s part, to recognize her legitimacy by accepting a pardon from her), and while a drawn-out trial also served Estrada’s purposes (either postponing an inevitable conviction or keeping him in the limelight as some sort of self-styled prisoner of conscience), neither side seemed capable of figuring out what a possible compromise could be.
And so, earlier this year I proposed that Estrada cut the Gordian knot and run for office. It offered up a possibility for the public to resolve something the court was proving unable to do. Estrada preferred to continue posturing from his Tanay rest house. After the election, when it became clear Estrada’s endorsement was not as powerful as people had expected, and when the President for her part, saw the public mood (nationally-speaking) was completely against her, the trial began to move toward a resolution. On the day the verdict was handed down, both Estrada and Arroyo loyalists discovered they stood larger in their own minds than in the eyes of a public that shrugged off Estrada’s conviction. Both saw themselves in the mirror, and didn’t like what they saw: they saw themselves as sliding, inexorably, too, into the has-been column of the political divide.
With neither side having shown themselves as particularly devoted to the law, I felt that the whole thing should be done with, and Estrada pardoned. I did end up qualifying that opinion with a further opinion that a pardon shouldn’t include his taking home the loot. The opinion of Prof. Popoy de Vera struck me, which was, that the Filipino concept of justice is restitution and not retribution -as he later told me, besides that was the public view that Estrada shouldn’t keep his loot, and having been disgraced, he should bow out of politics.
The pardon, as it’s emerged, involves exactly that, and suggests at whom the pardon is aimed, in p.r. terms: the Estrada constituency among the masses. The pardon contains a pledge (whether meaningless or not) that Estrada will not seek elective office, and that he forfeits the properties and monies ordered confiscated by the court.
Estrada, for his part, had angled for nothing less than a full, sweeping pardon. the President, on the other hand, anxious as she was to grant that pardon, had to be able to throw some sort of bone to her constituents and so, made a counter-proposal: Estrada should accept a conditional pardon, the only condition being his being unable to keep the loot (which Estrada, after all, had unblinkingly claimed was never his). What seems to have finally clinched the deal was something personal and not political -the widely-held assumption that Estrada’s mother doesn’t have very much longer left to live.
Add to that the unappetizing prospects, for the Estrada, of continued detention (however pleasant it is, but from his perspective still an intolerable situation), his being unsure of whether he would secure the overturning of the verdict on appeal, and the chance that a future government might not be anxious to pander to him the way the President has, and you can well imagine why Estrada would want to settle things now, and forget any chance to achieve a proper vindication. Add to this, finally, the pending transfer of Estrada to New Bilibid prisons: being fingerprinted in an orange jumpsuit, shaved of his Elvis-style pompadour, having to endure a jail cell.
You can imagine, too, that the President, beset on all sides by problems of her own making, and who never wanted things to reach this point, anyway, would want to settle matters, too, and her willingness to take one more gamble by saying she’d allow his being sent to Bilibid.
And so, they sealed the deal.
I am not surprised by the pardon, and I’m generally inclined to look at it the way Torn & Frayed does (he opposed amnesty, though I think amnesty would have been more politically acceptable all around), but I think it does leave a little room for further interpretation.
It tells us that the President has more to gain in terms of good will from the Estrada constituency than she has to lose from Edsa Dos forces who will be angry, upset, and shocked, but who in the end lack what matters most to the President: numbers, in terms of votes, and a willingness to make those numbers count, whether in terms of public protests or going to the polls.That political math has been clear since May, 2001: and the losers here are the Edsa Dos veterans who are shocked and appalled, only now, not least because the folly of their support for the President has been exposed, not to the President but to themselves. As far as Estrada’s supporters are concerned he made the best out of a raw deal.
But it also tells us that Estrada is permanently incapable of saving anything beyond his own hide. In the end he had to kneel and beg for mercy from a President he’d never recognized as legitimate; he would not risk vindicating himself in the courts, the ultimate demonstration of his disbelieving his own rhetoric. He can always say what does it profit a man, if he is unable to bury his mother as a free man? As far as that goes, he’s right; but he would have been allowed to bury her anyway, but he could not allow himself to endure the prospects of the Supreme Court upholding his conviction, or worse, his being hauled off to Muntinlupa to endure the kind of imprisonment regularly endured by his constituents.
In the strange, because almost mystical, way our society manages to see rays of sunshine, public opinion had finally welcomed Estrada’s conviction as closure to the great divisions of 2001. His supporters could proclaim him a willing martyr; his critics could view it as vindication. Estrada and Arroyo both managed to deny that closure to both, and that’s the reason there’s public dissatisfaction. at least withing Edsa Dos and some Edsa Tres circles, with the deal.
One comment I heard, from some Edsa Dos veterans, was, “and he didn’t even spend a single day in jail.” I understand some Estrada supporters were upset, too, because their idol caved in and left them twisting in the wind, proclaiming the illegitimacy of an administration from which Estrada himself decided to seek a pardon only a legitimate president can grant.
What this has achieved is that it has simply reshuffled the deck chairs on the Titanic. The President removed the chains keeping steerage from joining the First Class passengers on the deck of the sinking ship. Those astute enough to realize the ship’s doomed long ago fired the distress rockets and clambered into lifeboats.
In a nation where symbolism trumps substance, Estrada never had to suffer for his rhetoric, the President never gave the legal process to reach its final conclusion; there wasn’t even a token effort at proving justice could be tempered with mercy; instead, mercenary calculations were passed off as executive mercy. But, as Amang Rodriguez so famously said, “in the long of time, we shall success.”
Much as everyone saw the pardon coming, what I don’t think anyone outside of official circles expected was for it to be used so crudely, so patently politically: a historic verdict required a historic demonstration of presidential statesmanship; instead, it was a tool used to blunt the effects of embarrassing headlines resulting from the Senate hearing; and it was a brusque dismissal of those who, all these eventful years, stubbornly insisted on giving the President the benefit of the doubt because she had to be, somehow, better than her predecessor.
What happens next? It remains to be seen whether Estrada will be grateful to Arroyo, and whether a new Arroyo-Estrada alliance is in the making. I can only hope so. It relieves the opposition of the burden of having to maintain an uneasy peace with the Estrada forces, and finally offers up the prospects for the veterans of Edsa 1 and 2 to reunite.
Then again, it may also give Estrada a new lease on political life. But the damage has been done; a free man, Estrada is free to return to engaging in his vices in full public view, and to prove himself ungrateful and incapable of doing anything for those who loyally stood by his side since his fall from power.
If Estrada were to run for the presidency again, he would lose. But he can begin investing, quite heavily, in the political futures of his sons. What that future is, remains to be seen. now he is just another ex-president. He has achieved his aims, and how minimal they turned out to be. There is nothing left for him to do, not least because who, now, will follow him after his kneeling before the President?
And as for the President, it’s back to the War Room because so many other fights still need to be fought, and any relief she obtains always proves increasingly temporary. Tuesday and Wednesday night, apparently, neophyte congressmen were brought to the Palace for their egos to be stroked. Last night, a larger meeting of all non-opposition congressmen was held at the Palace, ostensibly to survey the political situation, but possibly to consider the party line concerning the President’s cash gifts, since the governors already came up with their own excuse.
Jove Francisco chronicles how reporters found out about the pardon, which wasn’t expected to be announced until Friday. Reporters apparently take their cue from how the President color-codes her dresses: if she’s in blue, you know she’s in crisis mode. Also, Jove mentions a gathering of the Cabalens in the Palace, which made for a surreal scene:
I heard some people who witnessed the event comment that the event was a bad idea. That it won’t help their cabalen-PGMA any bit. Imagine, here’s a President who has been distancing herself from the payola issue, and then here are Mayors saying stuff like “they need the controversial cash gifts” … inside the palace mismo. In bad taste, at sino man daw nag isip, – malamang di nag iisip. Ill advised, ika nga.
As for the goings on in the Palace bunker, word is that Sec. Bunye’s assumption of the role of Acting Executive Secretary is in preparation for his assuming the role in a more permanent capacity, which is why two deputy presidential spokesmen have been appointed; Sec. Ermita, according to scuttlebutt has been given a one-way ticket to America, and before he left, he told his people to start packing their things.
The reason the announcement of the pardon was moved to Thursday, instead of Friday, when the Palace prefers to make big announcements so it has the weekend to survey the scene and gage public reaction, is chronicled in turn by Uniffors. It’s a great read. And explains why the Palace dispensed with its only make breaking news as the weekend starts rule of thumb.
For a roundup of blogger’s reactions to the pardon, see tonyocruz.com.
Technorati Tags: Edsa, philippines, politics, president
“If Estrada were to run for the presidency again, he would lose. But he can begin investing, quite heavily, in the political futures of his sons. What that future is, remains to be seen.”
i think you’re right. already jinggoy is a major player, and when loi leaves the senate, i can see jv ejercito taking her place, with a lot of help from erap. my theory is, there’s a trade-off, maybe to do with gloria’s continuing push for charter change a.k.a. federalism, which would explain the lootbags, cash advances, to local government officials. erap’s support would be invaluable.
“If Estrada were to run for the presidency again, he would lose. But he can begin investing, quite heavily, in the political futures of his sons. What that future is, remains to be seen.”
i think you’re right. already jinggoy is a major player, and when loi leaves the senate, i can see jv ejercito finally getting his wish to do a jinggoy too. my theory is, there’s a trade-off, maybe to do with gloria’s continuing push for charter change a.k.a. federalism, which would explain the lootbags, cash advances, to local government officials. erap’s (and his sons’)support would be invaluable.
to paraphrase Nietzsche:
EDSA Zwei ist tot! EDSA Zwei bleibt tot! Und wir haben ihn getötet.
Nasaan na ang bise-presidente ng bansa natin, si kabayan Noli De Castro, sa mga panahong ito na higit nating kinakailangang marinig ang kanyang boses? Nasaan na ang boses niya na naging pamilyar sa atin tuwing binabati tayo ng “Magandang gabi, bayaaAAAaannn…�
Sir, nasaan na kayo? Ngayon nyo kilangang ipakita ang leadership qualities nyo, sa mga panahon na ito na maraming katanungan tungkol sa pinakamataas na pinuno ng Pilipinas. Sa mga panahong ito na maraming issues laban sa gobyernong kinasasapian nyo. Oo, marami din sa mga Filipino ang tinatawaran ang kakayahan nyong mamuno kahit pa binoto kayo bilang pangalawang pangulo ng bansa. Kung may panahon na kailangan nyong patunayan na mali ang pananaw na iyon sa inyo, Sir, ito na ang tamang panahon. Ngayon namin higit na kailangang marinig ang inyong boses.
He was sent into exile to his summer palace. Not the palace dungeons. He was finally sentenced to the dungeons but paid his tribute and declared God save the Queen and was allowed to go home to his manor grounds. Most of his loyalists dispersed to the winds.
Kneel before the queen and you shall have your minor kingdom back to you. Leave behind the treasures of the kingdom earned after your ascent to the crown.
Prisoner of Conscience -No way.
A saga ends and we are still in the middle of another one.
Where is Cromwell?
Tonio, had to use babelfish but you’re 100% correct 😀
Manolo, don’t you mean ‘EDSA 2 and 3?
Noli de Castro is reprising Gloria’s role in 2001: Fence-sitter who will grab the prize once the dust from the battle has settled.
Spineless creatures both!
Could it be for a very simple reason as well?
As a mama’s boy, Erap would do ANYTHING to be with his mother during her dying moments.
I’d probably do the same thing if faced with such a dilemna. I’d even go back to Catholicism and worship all those bishops if it means release from jail to tender to an ailing mother…
Or yes, maybe it’s just politics and Erap is a shrewd trapo…
Perhaps Erap’s loyalists imagined that their hero would do a Braveheart by refusing to scream “Mercy!” even as his guts are being mangled and excised. But the guy is a total idiot, he can never be in that league.
So, what’s the latest spin for the Gloria-lovers here? Compassionate lang talaga ang Presidente nyo?
As FVR warned, this could really be the last straw.
mlq3, wala pa bang rally? Black n White should move, everyone should move, kumilos na tayo!
Loi’s and Jinggoy’s popularity at the polls represented only the reflected glow of Erap’s constituency. If this mass base dissipates as a result of their disenchantment over his ‘submission’ to Gloria, then they’d end up looking for another career–or just be content taking turns warming the seat in the San Juan city hall.
Aling Gloria is like telling us, “Accuse me, even if I’ll be found guilty I can ask for pardon anyway…I had pardoned Erap so I, also, expect to be granted the same”. In other words, with the fact that they won’t serve their sentence, our fight for graft and corruption will go useless….so where should we proceed from here if that will be the case? I guess the Judicial branch should intervene and give a fair and acceptable judgment.
I’m with tagabukid: Black & White should move, and we will all follow. If this isn’t a crystal clear case of Black vs. White, I don’t know what is.
Please, somebody, ANYBODY! I’m mad as hell and not taking it anymore!
MLQ3, forgive my ignorance, are you an active member of the B&W Movement?
I’ve found a suitable ribbon that we can use for this topic.
Black Ribbon at Philippine Updates
FUTURE PLUNDERERS ARE NOW SAFE!
It seems to me that,positively,recent event are is trying to separate the chaff from the grain and weed out the bad seeds from the good.
i think black ribbons won’t be enough, manhid at garapal na masyado ang gobyernong ito, they will just spit in our faces and trample on all those symbolisms.
let’s take the outrage to the streets!
Hi tagabukid: We’ve been through EDSA 1 & 2, Let’s be careful in calling for mass actions. We both know that chaos can suddenly erap (erupt).
I am with you in expressing outrage, though.
Re: “But it also tells us that Estrada is permanently incapable of saving anything beyond his own hide. In the end he had to kneel and beg for mercy from a President he’d never recognized as legitimate;”
Very true, perhaps out of plain stupidity or sheer persona dysfunction, i.e., real life taking on a reel role.
He couldn’t save his presidency then back in 2001 because either he didn’t know how to or because he thought as in the movies, the underdog would always win.
As far as I’m concerned I’ve had enough melodrama from the two megastars, Erap and Gloria, that the two should simply be OUT of the political landscape.
I’m with B&W: snap election to start anew!
We’ve done it before, we can do it again.
Nasa EDSA ako noong 2001, hanggang sa mendiola… and yes, we’ve all been had. Those pigs stole the whole show and fucked up everything and everyone. It’s payback time.
mlq3, i think B&W would do well to coordinate things with the CBCP. I have faith in Angel Lagdameo, he will not fail us. Better make sure about that Grandstand schedule this time.
to Gloria spinmeisters, loyalists, apologists and serial rapists: sneer at your own risk.
the time of reckoning has come.
two components of my barren Philippines precluding “Bastille.” charter change and Gloria’s continued stay in power, and co-opting of the fake opposition.
the other component being mass emigration of OFW families.
so cvj, still don’t believe me?
i’ll keep on reposting that prediction until it comes true.
and there’s an ongoing online petition right now to have snap elections. on search mode for it. will post the link when i find it.
let’s watch her self-detsruct;her”natural allies” (fvr,singson,jdv are leaving her),very fast turn of events these past weeks;she keeps inventing a big headline every week to”divert” attention from her mess.
when?
Only the 500 peso bill will bring paid demonstrators to go
to the streets.
Sige maghintay ka ’till kingdom come.
the cat:I 100% sure that karma will catch up.its unavoidable.
that kingdom, will come. and when it does, you’ll be among the lynched. i’ll be among the vanished, and the bloggers here will be among the lost.
the beggars pestering us now for a bit of coin, will do the lynching.
It’s ok Cat, i expected your one-liners, yan naman ang natural reaction mo e. As i said, sneer at your own risk.
Di ko kinailangan ng P500 para maglakad papuntang Mendiola noong 2001. How about you, what have you done?
You reserve your one-liners pag bumagsak na ang regime ng presidente mo, you’ll need more than that especially if the people breaks through mendiola.
As with Erap, you and your Gloria Arroyo won’t see it coming.
For info, Tagabukid, I believe (although I might be wrong), Cat is beyond the reach of those who will or will not accept the 500 peso bill, she’s in the US.
so let us wqit now. from scutllebutt.the game now is villar for president in 2010. jinggoy as vice president. unbeatable team as erap voters plus the support of the GMA admin. Villar is the bet of both Erap and GMA.
The way I see it, pardoning Erap was a tactical move, in one quick stroke, GMA neutralized the one group that had potential for outrage in the streets – the Erap “mob” supporters, whether paid (500Php) or not.
Or do we remember the masterful blockade of several elements of the oust GMA move last year? The police effectively prevented the different groups from reaching critical mass by not allowing them to converge. The military undoubtedly have some cracks in their armor, but calls for the observance of the chain of command and the renewed programs for “back to basics” and “professionalism” apparently is stemming any signs of dissent.
The administration is also regrouping their strength in congress, governors league, and mayors league which in themselves constitute a powerful block. GMA’s forces are gathering together in a powerful defensive position while negating the danger from strong opposing factions. Add the CBCP, Mike Velarde, etc. to the whole enchilada (together with their flock) and you have all in all a seemingly immovable object.
On the one hand we have powerful forces though from different sides united by one common characteristic – corruption, and have banded together for self preservation. On the other, we have the outraged real opposition, the people represented by the B&W movement, whose components cannot be defined as yet so its difficult to measure strength.
Its a grim sight indeed, as the forces of darkness is eclipsing the forces of light. My only comfort, is that even if there will not be a movement strong enough to wipe the landscape clean, the administration and its newfound allies will implode with all the political in-fighting and self-destruct with external pressures acting as a catalyst.
I hope that the youth of today, more educated than the past generations, will take the current events as lessons in “what not to do in governance” and decide not to repeat their elders’ mistakes as they chart their own destiny…
Devils, the good (or bad) thing about matters concerning society is that there is no transcendental position. everyone is inside society, in order words, everything is immanent. Granted there are tendencies but these can only be expressed as contingencies. as soon as expectations are formed, society takes these expectations into account and is transformed by it.
yup, i know that MBW, thanks.
ive been here long enough to know that she’s the ailurophile who gets a kick out of seeing the Filipino fail, while she wallows in the luxury of her abode in the land of milk and honey.
What was done to us last night by GMA was a humungous insult. What she did last night was indefensible. And downright paranoid. We mourn with all of you who are just as hurt and revolted.
The comments made by those who revere her sound more and more defensive than offensive. They are losing and they know it. Their mistress just slipped.
I’ve always believed that People Power is a miracle, born out of the hearts of people enraged. It will happen, and those of us who work in the Black & White Movement believe it will happen. People Power is exacting accountability from leaders that have dissed us. But to move the people to “move” would be irresponsible without knowing what to do after we move. That mistake happened twice. Let’s not waste the moment a third time. We plan to hold a consultative meeting very soon, and you’ll all be invited.
And yes, we are proud that Manolo is a co-convenor of Black & White.
“With neither side having shown themselves as particularly devoted to the law, I felt that the whole thing should be done with, and Estrada pardoned. I did end up qualifying that opinion with a further opinion that a pardon shouldn’t include his taking home the loot. The opinion of Prof.”
This is only true for Filipinos who have lost their pride.
Right on Helga!
“The opinion of Prof. Popoy de Vera struck me, which was, that the Filipino concept of justice is restitution and not retribution -as he later told me, besides that was the public view that Estrada shouldn’t keep his loot, and having been disgraced, he should bow out of politics.”
This is only true for Filipinos who have lost their pride.
correction: in order words = in other words
ramrod,
dont despair. as mon casiple correctly observed, the ‘masterful stroke’ did nothing but buy her time and nothing else.
but she can’t escape the inevitable, unless she makes the ‘supreme sacrifice’ of resigning. But of course, sa kapal ng apog at sa tindi rin ng takot to lose power, that is wishful thinking.
MBW, and that’s only worth, let me compute 500/43=$11.62 just barely enough for lunch at any fast food. but for most ordinary “paid demostrators” that’s about a day or two wages and if it accomplishes something, like kicking another despot out, that’s a bonus…It was macoy, then erap and who is the next?, not George W., or not even our good looking young PM Harper, but gloria, next in line..and like some, I’ll watch from the “safe distance”..
Planning on going somewhere? We’re not that old you know.
Helga, count me in.
Please post the updates sa site niyo, im sure the people are watching and waiting for someone to move. we must move.
this government is filled with ‘kamahiran’…hypocrisy, filth, vagueness, double-standards, etc… I’m fuming mad!!!!
The Cat,
Ganyan ba ka manhid si Aling Gloria?
Gloria the fence sitter and immediate beneficiary of EDSA Dos is now bastardizing the spirit of that spontaneous convergence.
Vic,
Your computation is true, i.e., 500 pesos is two days salary or more for a house maid or a house boy in Pinas so I heard.
Problem for me about paying off would be demonstrators or rallyists to join a kick Gloria out crusade is that inevitably, one doesn’t quite know if these demonstrators are rallying for the money or because they really believe Gloria should be kicked out.
I suppose the only way to make sure they realize the purpose of the rally, in the event, a kick-out Gloria crusade has to get going is at the very least to inform these people, of the reasons, to “mass educate” them if at all possible, similar to what Dean Bocobo calls Joma sit ins. At least you’ve got a semblance of political ‘maturity’ or whatever there, you know just like what COPA did when they linked hands with Satur Ocampo’s and Crispin Beltran’s red friends.
Ah, what political blarney yarns need to be woven to get things done in this country, eh, Vic?
You and I are lucky… we don’t have to live the day to day yuck in situ under the country’s despicable despots.
‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’
Thanks, tagabukid, for the support. Will make sure to post details. Manolo will, too.
Helga, I & my friends here are with you.