“Concentrate on what cannot lie. The evidence.”
– Gil Grissom to Warrick Brown, CSI
“It’s a scientist’s right to re-examine his theory with each new piece of evidence, Nick.”
– Gil Grissom, CSI
So what do we non-scientists do? Essentially, pursue the paths scientists would take, anyway. This morning, I gave a talk to high school and college students from the various La Salle schools, and one student asked my opinion on the Glorietta blast. And so, I quoted from CSI.
I told the students that as students, they should try to make sense of what happened, by starting with the realization that there is a lot more we don’t know, than we actually know at this point. the little that we know can be gleaned from three main sources. First, eyewitness accounts. Second, photos and videos showing the damage. Third, what our officials tell us.
At the end of the day, whatever official explanations emerge will have to be convincing to the many eyewitnesses, and match what they’ve related and what the pictures show (an interesting entry, with pictures, is in sane psycho, who’s mother is apparently the architect of Luk Yuen; Hueco Mundo says the owner had a close call indeed). Our job as citizens, I told them, is to be unafraid to insist that any explanation given makes sense. I told them that people will of course have preconceived notions or assumptions about what took place, but a sober and thorough investigation -and explanation- should hopefully end up convincing your average, reasonable, person.
And if it doesn’t, ask, ask, ask, until you’re satisfied it all makes sense. The opinions, even instincts, of people who were there, will matter. As will the views of ordinary citizens who try to make sense of the tragedy by comparing official explanations (or theories) with their own personal experience. See delai’s realm, for example, who, when the LPG explosion theory was first proposed, wrote,
they said it was just a gas tank leak. what the hell? when i saw it on tv, i had to say “wtf?” i’ve witnessed a house burn down because of lpg leakage. but it was nothing like it. there was a loud blast and then the house was eventually engulfed in flames. glorietta however was nothing like it. no fire at all. a blasted area of glorietta facing park square 2 flashed on tv. and when the inside of the mall was shown, there was no doubt that it was bombed.
See Turning Points, who has photos and refuses to believe it was a gas leak, either. See Clumsy Limbs who sadly noted that after Sunday’s brief fire, she has had to cancel future events in the mall.
In the end if they can be convinced, all of us should be convinced by whatever official explanation emerges. The trauma and confusion those who were there are going through (and their loved ones, who have just begun to count their blessings,) will naturally affect their attitudes and behavior.
Blogger Cindy.cIndy.ciNdy.cinDy.cindY who was fairly close to the blast, describes the process many others are going through too, I’m sure:
As soon as I arrived home last Friday, my father uttered the words “Military may pakana niyan. Sila lang ang may C4.” How can my father say that? I was disgusted to hear that the government might be behind the incident. And I was scared at the same time because the government can do that to their constituents. Then the news outlined several bombing instances in Metro Manila and all of them showed that the bomb used were home-made bombs. They believe that the ‘terrorists’ are the one behind the previous bombings. Anyway, we have to wait for the result of the investigation before we make accusations, right? So I watched the news and red the newspapers. It has been 3 days since the incident happened but still they don’t have a concrete idea what kind of explosive was used. Some were saying that it was indeed C4 since some chemical components of C4 can be found in the area. But the police investigators alleged that these components are available in the drug stores, therefore, speculations about the military and government being behind the incident should be disregarded. Ganon na ba kadali gumawa ng bomba?!
And the questions that are emerging in their minds:
And guess what, there are no security guards who died that day. Come to think of it, 2 passengers from a taxi died and the taxi driver was thrown off his own taxi because of the explosion but the guard on duty managed to stay alive. Another thing with the security guards in the mall is that they just stand there and tell the people don’t panic. The hell!!! Why don’t you just show the people where’s the safest way to go so that they won’t panic?! So much for the guards…
She also then tackles, next, the kind of talk going around and where officials could do some good by stepping in to squelch such talk, if it’s unfounded:
Yesterday the father of my brother’s friend, which is a Colonel in the military, warned us to stay away from malls because according to him there are 3 more bombs. They do not know yet where the other bombs are located. And according to him, the bomb used in Glorietta is indeed a C4. He also added that the C4 used in Glorietta was less than 2kgs and the purpose was just to scare the people. Then last night I received a text message from my friend saying, “This came from my brother Henry from the army. Wag kayo pumunta sa Global City Market Market and Makro Bicutan… All Ayala Corps subject for bombings. Ocean liners hindi pumutok kanina. Intel info yan, high alert kami…”
I don’t know whom to believe because the news hasn’t disclosed this information yet or they haven’t received the information. And the military hasn’t given any statement regarding this information. But it seems that the info is quite correct in saying that there are still 3 bombs scattered in Metro Manila. Nevertheless, I wrote this to warn other people to be vigilant.
This is the problem: much as the stories being passed around bothers people (see Oodles of Goodles and love-andy and Willie Galang.COM for examples of those who feel bothered) in the absences of official reassurances to the contrary, passing around information may be the only way the citizenry has to cope with the possible implications of the blast. Put it this way, even if the blast wasn’t due to terrorism, it raises troubling questions, as Mara Finds points out:
[B]ut what is being stored there and why it wasn’t being audited and regulated by Ayala Center is a little bit questionable because, allegedly, there is a big gasoline tank sitting right under the mall and empty fuel cylinders being stored there.
What, they can’t find alternative storage solutions that they have to choose storing explosion hazards in the basement of a very busy mall?! While the investigators have not released a definite cause of the blast, whether it’s an accident or work of terrorist groups, it’s idiotic to give anybody or anything undue access to a large cache of volatile fuel.
There are others firmly convinced any official responsibility is improbable, even unthinkable, see Postcard Headlines.
My column today, Defeatism, is a far cry from the beautiful piece written by Patricia Evangelista in Things fall apart last Sunday:
When the soldiers were beheaded by the Abu Sayyaf, we were disgusted, violated, but we could push past it and say it’s the risk a soldier takes. It is the same for the activists and journalists, the leaders and politicians. They’re only names, mourned now, replaced by someone else’s story tomorrow. But what’s different about the Glorietta blast, in the reactions and confessions and the dozens of entries in blogs all over the Internet, is the uniform mix of fear and relief. There is no forgetting this one. The words that are repeated, in murmurs and whispers down the alleyways of cyberspace are the same. It could have been my brother. It could have been my boyfriend. It could have been my mother. It could have been me.
It could have been the girl and her father who had lunch in Luk Yuen. It could have been the boy who was planning to go to Toby’s to look at sports equipment. It could have been any of the thousands who pour out of the Ayala MRT station and flood the crossing into Glorietta. There’s no longer any sense of safety–it happened in a mall, that safe haven of the 21st century. It is the same mall where young couples hold hands while walking, the same mall so many of us who were raised in Manila have wandered into dozens of times without a thought. And in Glorietta 2, where the bomb struck, there were play areas, and toys, and children’s books, and stores for mommies-to-be. Safe? We don’t know what that means anymore.
But in my own space I had to point out one troubling aspect of the whole tragedy is that it shows no one is capable of rallying the country even in times of disaster, when the normal (and healthy) instinct of a population should be to rally around the flag. I’ve learned that readers only react to columns when they disagree, and so I wasn’t surprised when some readers took exception with my generally praising the police: but it is really too soon, to my mind, to come to any conclusions about how they’ve handled things.
As things stand, last Sunday’s Inquirer editorial asked readers to brace themselves, and pointed out something blogger Pwede Na, who has a must-read blog entry which begins with a meditation on our mall culture,
There is a direct relationship between the noise levels in a mall, the frigidity of the aircon, and the income levels of the shoppers — the poorer the clientele, the colder and louder the mall. Poor folk come to a mall to cool down, and to be entertained. They want their money’s worth!
SM North Mall leaves one half deaf after an hour, and you had better bring a sweater if you’re planning to take in a movie. The Rockwell Mall, which you can’t even get to on public transportation, goes for the very upscale shopper and is nearly silent. So, if you want powerful aircon, well, you can get that at home.
A few weeks after the new TRINOMA mall opened I realized it was not going for the same demographic as the Ayala’s Glorietta Mall in the City of Makati’s financial district. TRINOMA now leaves me almost as hearing impaired as SM North. Adjacent to a new cross-country bus terminal, TRINOMA advertises itself as a “regional mall” capturing shoppers from the provinces a few hours north of Metro Manila. You can see the probinsyanos wandering the mall, wide eyed, and hanging on to each other. ATM machines every 50 meters insure that they won’t come up short on cash before they head back to the bus terminal and the return trip to Bulacan, Tarlac, or Pampanga.
And why the public has reacted the way it has:
What is interesting is how quickly we absorb the shock, those of us who did not lose a loved one and who were not injured. On Sunday, two days after the event, we were in the SM North Mall to get some gardening supplies. The mall had about half the number of people one might normally expect for a Sunday. Barring any new bombings, I suspect the crowd will be back to normal by next Sunday.
The October 21, 2007 editorial in the Philippine Daily Inquirer notes the sadness of our country, the fact that there are so many suspects in this bombing. The real tragedy, however, is that for a great many Filipinos and other residents, including this one, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and her government are among the suspects. This is not the assessment of wild-eyed conspiracy theorists, but of average work-a-day people.
Similar thoughts were echoed in today’s Inquirer editorial, too.
A day prior to this story, Investigators not discounting accident in Glorietta blast, word was already going around that the police were rethinking the accident angle. As well they should, since all possibilities have to be looked into. But a hypersensitive public will tend to pore over every official comment to see what it may mean when police officials say US experts unable to detect C-4 component from blast site, when perhaps all the cops are doing is trying to be more nuanced:
However, Razon said the test results could have varied because Philippine and American authorities swabbed different areas.
“The [US] tests are negative because when the US experts arrived at the blast site, they swabbed the exterior portions or the portions that were not directly at the center, or at the seat, of the explosion. That’s why it tested negative,” Razon said in Filipino.
Razon added that, “But when the PNP Crime Laboratory personnel conducted their swabs, it was in the general vicinity of the seat of the explosion.”
“That is the explanation why the swabbing of US experts showed negative results for RDX,” he said.
As it is, even as the latest is, PNP: Accident in Glorietta becoming more and more likely: No bomb components found, they better be doing their homework and dotting every i and crossing every t (and here’s how things can get misconstrued: some would ask, why doesn’t the FBI say something, then; others will say, that’s protocol, they’re guests so only Philippine officials will talk; how to resolve it? Officials should say if protocol’s at work or what to expect by way of an official statement from foreign observers).
Inner Sanctum explores the accident theory, which he says “geek friends” proposed even when official statements started focusing on that possibility:
Over the weekend, several geek friends of mine have put forward deflagration as the probable cause of the Glorietta blast, especially after The Inquirer published a composite image of the blast site inside the Glorietta 2 lobby.
According to them, deflagration is just like a gigantic fart, wherein tremendous gas pressure is released similar to a gas-powered canon–meaning, in one direction–as opposed to the ripple effect of a bomb.
Philippine Commentary who seemed morally convinced the blast was terrorist-related, goes to greater lengths and points to GexCon, a gas explosion consultancy, whose handbook does make interesting reading. but not everyone is quick to embrace this possibility.
However, Chemical experts doubt new blast theory:
Ernesto dela Cruz and Wilfredo Jose, both professors in chemical engineering, faculty members and students said it was unlikely that a leak from the tank containing thousands of liters of diesel at the mall’s basement caused the blast.
The engineers said diesel is not a volatile substance and will not explode as a liquid at any rate. They said it has to be in a gaseous state and has to vaporize before it can explode.
They said that for diesel to vaporize, it has to be heated to up to more than 200 degrees Celsius inside a diesel engine.
Dela Cruz, Jose and the others also said that it would also be impossible that methane gas that allegedly leaked from the mall’s septic tank caused the blast.
The experts, however, said that methane explodes only if ignited. They said a mixture of five to 15 percent methane and 85 percent oxygen may explode when lit.
They added that the mixture should contain a substantial amount of chemical components to reach a blast magnitude similar to the one at the mall on Friday afternoon.
The professors said they doubt that there was enough methane inside the Glorietta 2 sewer to fuel the explosion that reached up to the building’s roof three stories from the basement.
They also said that the rate of reaction would have to be quick to attain an explosion with impact. There should also have been a bad odor, much like that of rotten eggs, if the cause of the blast was indeed methane gas.
More convincing is Tongue In, Anew:
If the diesel tank, which by the way is almost always filled especially in applications such as malls and other establishments frequented by many people, did cause the huge explosion, it should have been blown beyond recognition. Generators used for critical applications such as Glorietta’s are typically run with and without load weekly both automatically then manually for about fifteen minutes just to make sure the Genset (engine + alternator/dynamo w/ Auto-start/Auto-shutdown circuits) and the electrical controls (Automatic Transfer Switch, Paralleling Switchgear, etc.) will work in the event a real power interruption (brownout) does occur. It also ensures that the batteries are recharged regularly. Without batteries, generators are worthless. This regular process, called Plant Exercise, makes it imperative that the fuel tank/s are always filled to its upper limits. Meaning very little space for compression and combustion in the tank’s upper chamber.
What did the pictures show? A fuel tank standing perfectly by itself, except for a small hole and with a portion of the top cover appearing to me as intentionally pried open. The tank did not appear to have “bloated” or puffed out as it should be if it had exploded from inside. The small hole? It looks to me like it was there all the time. Maybe a vent punched out by maintenance for pressure release. This is necessary especially if the fuel delivery pipes to the engine operate by gravity (think pressurized water tanks vs. gravity tanks).
Or it could have been used as inspection hole to check fuel level either visually or by using a dipstick. Some tanks usually have level indicators using a transparent plastic tubing stretched vertically outside with both ends connected to metal tubes welded at the top and bottom of the tank’s side. The level outside is the same inside since liquids seek their own level. But since this type of indication is neither rigid nor durable, at some time maintenance people disable this and use the more reliable dipstick method.
Again, the metal plate that this hole was created in did not look dented in nor puffed out that would have indicated any explosion either coming directly from the top or from the inside, respectively.
I now also remember talking to military officers from the Electronics group called AFPCES some years back who wanted me to design and build diesel tanks thick enough to repel bullets. I was told the NPAs use AFPCES’ tanks for target practice (including soldiers climbing their antenna masts) but when I asked how many have died in the explosions, I was told the bullets just punctured the tanks and at worst, it would deprive them of a week’s supply of diesel but no explosions. Either I was watching too many cowboy movies at the time or totally ignorant to have asked that.
Who also explores the sewage tank angle:
From what little I know about sewage treatment plants (I designed and installed electrical controls including semi-automation modules for, what do you know? A high-rise 5-star Hotel and a mall complex!), the Laguna Lake Development Authority (LLDA)- if your establishment spills a huge volume of effluent towards the Laguna Lake or any of its tributary rivers, or the DENR – if your sewers lead to floodways or esteros flowing to any of the seas in Luzon, sewage treatment plants (STPs) ARE required by either gov’t offices before Environmental and Sanitation Permits are issued, thus construction permits are withheld in their absence. A mall the size of Glorietta, or the whole Makati Commercial Complex or Ayala Center as it is now called, IS required to operate a Sewage Treatment Plant.
Two possibilities, therefore. Either Glorietta has its own or it pumps its sewage into a central STP operated by Ayala Center. If not, then either LLDA or DENR did not do its job here. Or were bribed. In the late nineties, 2 or 3 malls/condos in the Ortigas-Shaw corridor were issued Cease and Desist Orders by LLDA because they were found pumping sewage straight to the city lines. They were heavily fined and closed temporarily until they constructed their own STPs. At least, that’s what the papers said.
What does an STP do?
To simplify, it first screens solids out of the influent waste from the mall, breaks down into “digestible” size large sediments like a giant blender with many agitator blades at the bottom of the tank; then pumps all of it into an aeration tank where air produced by big fan blowers is pumped from under the sludge, making aerobic bacteria digest organic waste. The next tanks would separate liquid from the remaining sludge. Liquid undergoes chlorination before the effluent is released to the city sewers while the remaining sludge repeats the process. This is where methane gas is produced. In large quantities, it may be dangerous as 14% methane mixed with oxygen explodes when ignited. Some large STPs use the gas to heat and dissolve the sludge but in this size (Glorietta’s) there is not enough methane produced to install a collector-burner stage. Abroad, it is common in city-size STPs but of the 3 private-owned medium-sized STPs I’ve worked on in the past, I have not seen one with a methane collector-burner stage, much less one that exploded.
It would be stupid likewise that Glorietta, or Ayala for that matter, would maintain a large septic vault holding raw sewage under one of its public buildings. They employ the finest architectural firms in the world to design their projects, any firm of that caliber would definitely not skip the basic requirements in their designs. So will sanitation and safety engineers, too. Even our houses’ pozo negros have vent pipes with which to “breathe” out the gas. Further, Methane does not stay stable for long. It breaks down into Hydrogen Sulfide which is a very toxic gas. We haven’t heard anyone die of gas poisoning in Glorietta prior to the incident, have we? Instead, what many witnesses and victims smelled was a gunpowder-like odor. Or in one victim’s words, “amoy-paputok”, which is characteristic of a C4 blast. A explosion caused by methane could be preceded or followed by flames and we haven’t heard of any such thing in Glorietta. Let’s take a look at the simplified chemical equation of burning methane in ordinary air:
CH4 + 2(O2 + 3.76N2) = 2H2O + CO2 + 2(3.76N2 + energy
where energy may be all or combination of Sound/Heat/Light/Shockwave
It is standard that explosion relief vents are constructed in STPs, more so one under a Generator room. The Generator Room itself, depending on the size and quantity of gensets, may have several exhaust fans to evacuate the hot air around the engines, the cooling system’s radiators (or water pipes to the external cooling towers for large installations), and the exhaust mufflers. I will not accept any excuse that the generator room is a totally contained/enclosed one, meaning a sealed vault where the operators can die from fumes inhalation either from the fuel or the engine exhaust. It is therefore safe to conclude that the generator room was well ventilated. Blast waves and shock waves cannot be produced like that as in Glorietta (blasting through the flooring up to the 4th floor) if it was not a sealed container.
Now, a room that has many vents and openings, doors, windows, vents, etc. should have allowed the smell at least of the foul-odored sewage, or methane gas, or hydrogen sulfide (when methane breaks down) and it would have been detected earlier by Ayala personnel or reported by shoppers. Any reports? Nothing I’m sure.
That being the case, and all the foregoing arguments here from my raw experience and stock knowledge, all debunks either the methane or diesel theory or the combination of both.
And from the layman’s point of view, Uniffors points out, however,
Remember a few years ago, there was a methane gas explosion from an underground sewage pipe in the street fronting the DFA office in Roxas Blvd. The blast was so powerful it tore up the pavement and sent a car a few feet airborne, but there was [no] fire.
Journal of the Jester-in-Exile tries to tie all the information together (read the whole thing):
Back to wrapping up a few things. In the next episode of CSI: Makati, I’ll be talking about my hypothesis on the why, as a follow-up to the how, the Glorietta blast occurred. Let’s face it — it takes a lot to ignite diesel and methane vapor, even in a confined environment, and the confined environment itself has factors that militate against the ignition of the flammable vapor (e.g., the velocity of the aircon exhaust roiling and disturbing the air inside the confined environment, the absence of any pressurization in the diesel tank or septic tank that would cause flammable vapor to accumulate much too rapidly for the vapor to be dispersed into outside air). Thus, it seems to me that it’s fairly unlikely that this was a simple case of an industrial accident.
Okay, it MAY BE an industrial accident, but it was probably STAGED.
American blogger Left Flank says American troops here on exercises might be playing it too cool (while prudently keeping safe) but also says,
The most ridiculous commentary on Filipino politics, though might be this: “An alternative theory in the investigation into the Makati bombing is that it was accidentally set off by incendiary material inside the building.”
Make that clumsy employee president!
One news item shows how intense emotions have gotten: Kin of Glorietta victims ask Arroyo for justice, not cash. And Twilight Zone news stories just adds to the unease: Calls to Rajah Solaiman diverted to Rep. Biazon’s cell phone.
In the end, I have to say ahnnabanana makes a good point:
A lot of friends overseas are writing about how glad they are that they left because they heard about the recent Glorietta bombing. How the Filipinos have grown apathetic and indifferent to such tragedies. That they’re so safe in America blah blah blah. I don’t think we’re apathetic. We feel bad about it, yes. But realistically, what is there to do about it? Protest with signs that say “STOP THE BOMBINGS”? Stay in our houses and not go to malls forever? Cry to show that we’re affected? Hold prayer rallies? Of course people will still go to work. Of course life will go on. When it happened I was doing a show in Greenbelt, the mall right beside Glorietta. Yesterday I had one, today I had two shows. Something like this can happen anywhere. A bomb can be assembled inside a mall with materials bought inside a mall. And where did the Columbine and Virginia tech shooting happen again? America, right? I’m not trying to go on this self-righteous, nationalistic high horse. My point is NO PLACE IS SAFE, not even first-world countries. It pisses me off when people are proud to be Filipino when something good happens like Pacquiao winning some boxing match then disown the country when something bad happens.
Technorati Tags: Blogging, media, philippines
Would it then be inaccurate to characterize their finding as being full of shit?
“Now, the League of Governors is owning up to giving Governors Panlilio and Mendoza P500,000 each. I really cannot understand why it took them 12 days to admit such “noble†act.”
Do you really believe that crap? The League of Governors “owned” up to it because Gov. Jonjon Mendoza directly implicated Gov. Evardone and U/Sec. Austere Panadero directly pointed at Roquero.
Where would the LoG get that kind of money? And do you think only two Governors got the bags? How about the money given to the Congressmen? Did it also come from the LoG?
The money really came from Malacanang. Hindi na sila makalusot sa case ni Among Ed and Jonjon Mendoza, so they asked the LoG to be the “fall guy”.
I don’t think so, MBW. A privilege speech must be delivered in the halls of Congress.
Geo, the final report is not yet in. “High probability” does not mean “conclusive”.
I advised two aspirins and you only took one. Now, go and take another one.
Shaman,
Dont you find Gloria not running out of luck? Just when is about to be pindown there is always something that saves her?
It almost rdx but then there was a methane that saves her.
Gove Ed is so clos eof pining her down but then there the Legue of Governors that owns the “bribery”
Quite a challenge to bring her down huh?
Divine Providence?
MLQ3, thanks for the quote.
As for viking, methane from sewage tanks, if they did creep through wall/floor cracks and into the Generator Room, will still have to be ignited. That is, if there was enough methane to fill 5-15% of the generator room and assuming further that the room was unventilated, which is impossible unless Ayala wants to suffocate their generator and/or sewage plant technicians.
As I explained in my blog (quoted by mlq3 above), substantial heat should be coming from: 1) the radiators which should be something like your car radiator enlarged 8ft x 8ft or bigger (or piping towards external cooling towers, in lieu of internally-mounted radiators), 2)the giant mufflers which would probably be 2ft diameter x 6-10ft length and from the engine blocks (the size of a mini-car on its side) themselves.
Typically, huge buildings use several 2-MegaWatt generators; like, a 20-storey hotel or commercial building may have 3 to 6 units of 2-MW generators, now imagine if this room contained ALL the generators to power the whole Glorietta complex!) The heat and fumes inside this “small” room, which we are told now, one has to bend to avoid knocking his head onto the sagging beams, would have killed their people a long time ago. THERE IS VENTILATION, of course! The caveat, however, is we don’t actually know the gensets’ size and the quantity, but my experience tells me that THAT size of an 8-hour daytank indicates there are more than one. “Thousands of liters”, according to the UP profs. You can do the math to approximate how much diesel is consumed by a single 2000 kw generator in 8 hrs. Proportion it to the power (kw) of your car/suv’s diesel engine running 1800 rpm for 8 hrs.
Now why do I highlight ventilation? Because: 1) ventilation will let methane and its by products to leak then emit that ugly odor in the immediate environs and 2) it will contribute to the strengh of the explosion.
I’m sure no one among the boutique tenants, much more, restaurant owners there who smells human waste, rotten eggs, or leaking fuel will just brush it aside. Especially not the Ayala personnel assigned to this basement, or even just the shoppers/diners/bummers. A methane leak would have been easily spotted.
Now, let’s go back to ignition. Granting for argument’s sake, that there was enough methane in the basement, it would have to be iignited. By what? A cigarette-smoking technician? A light switch? Circuit breaker arcing? Electric Motors? The first two (human-induced) are ruled out since no Ayala personnel have been included in the victims’ tally, but investigators are floating the third and fourth plus that video showing one spare battery terminal appearing burnt.
In two of our installations, one luxury hotel and a mall, the motor controllers are located right at the top of the Sewage Treatment Plant. (This is probably the last place in the hotel you wouldn’t want to be in because after about 10 minutes only, your clothes and hair smell like shit as well. You can’t just shake it off, my technicians have to get permission to bathe inside the hotel everytime they’re there or else they can’t commute in public). That is caused by methane. If you stink that way then there must be more than 5% in the air inside the plant, isn’t it? Each of the motors in the plant are switched manually and semi-automatically using magnetic contacors/starters, relays, circuit breakers, and toggle switches. Each of these things can produce electric arcs similar to that produced by a spark plug or sometimes are more intense. At the moment two contact points are at a specific distance from each other during closing or opening a circuit, arcing takes place. Then you should be asking, why the hell is a motor control center sitting on top of a volatile gas-filled tank? I asked that question too and the reply I got from the Singaporean plant designer is that that kind of arcing inside the metal enclosure cannot ignite methane gas. And it surely hasn’t, for almost TEN YEARS now. The same with the mall which was designed by the same guy.
Now why am I saying this? I heard the other day, yesterday and again today that the motors in Glorietta’s STP get busted often and someone who knows his electrical THEORY (I must emphasize) might have been telling them the arc produced when an overload relay disconnects the circuit as the motor starts to get stuck could be the igniter! Arcing in the motor controllers in each of our sites occur about 200 TIMES A DAY and for the past ten years never caused any of the plants to explode. Yeah, even while sitting on top of methane.
Motor control centers, light switches, Circuit breakers and automatic transfer switches (this was mentioned by the investigators, too) are contained in enclosures that follow a certain set of standards (IEEE, NEMA, UL, IEC, BS etc) and tested for safety in specific environments. I personally know Ayala DOES commit to these standards during the design, bidding, awarding, and construction stages.
Of coure, as-built plans of the STP and the Generator room as well as exact specs of the equipment involved would spell a lot of difference between making “educated” estimates and “googled” speculations.
Likewise, more pictures and videos of the IMMEDIATE condition of the basement will reveal more proofs of either C4 vs. methane theory. I would not even try to go into combustion computations now. Forensic investigators have this knack for introducing irrelevant factors into the formula, the outcome is never repeatable in lab recreations.
What I presented here and in the blog attempts to debunk that which says diesel and/or methane caused it.
Thanks, Manolo, for the space.
tongue,
take note that a very very low kindling temperature…
This owning up by the League of Provinces of the Philippines (not League of Governors) to the bribery in Malacanang last October 11 really pisses me off. Ginagago na naman ang sambayanan. Akala nila sila lang ang may utak.
Why would LPP collect contributions from members, then give the money back to them? If there are indeed contributions, the money is meant to be spent for the organization’s projects and purposes, not to be given back to the individual members. It would not make sense.
Sabi pa ni Palawan Gov. Joel Reyes, LPP spokesman, “The amount given to each governor varies depending on their request.”
Nag-request ba sila Among Ed and Jonjon Mendoza? Hindi nga nila alam kung para sa ano yung pera.
Dagdag pa ni Evardone, “There’s nothing to explain, our intentions are noble, which is to help them.”
Talagang pinagtatakpan ang mother of all bribers.
Mga bunyol! Mga peti kuyon!
Marunong na akong mag-French.
i mean please factor in the very very low kindling temperature of methane
and also tongue maybe you should publish something like a explosion characteristics of methane against c4. I tried posting you tube videos of methane and c4 but its is under moderation.
No, reg0 (there, I punched the zero key), it’s not luck, it’s deception, it’s trickery. God does not deceive. It’s hardly admirable. It’s shameful.
Please don’t believe LPP’s yarn. I don’t want to call you bougnole or petit coullion.
Tongue,
Heres a link that I found in the net that can be of help to your technical nalysis. I mnot sure though if you have a background on Thermodynamics.
http://www.chm.davidson.edu/ChemistryApplets/calorimetry/HeatOFCombustionOfMethane.html.
To me it looks likes methane can explode even at room temperature (24 degree celsius). You dont need sparks electrical , a match or anything.
But I maybe wrong. medyo kinakalawang na rin ang thermodynamics ko eh.
But Im sure there are people here na hasa pa sa thermo so please correct me if im wrong.
It takes forensic scientists to rule out bomb explosion
many days by gathering evidences and recreating the bomb scenes while it took only a few seconds after the news when Trillanes said it is a bomb.
Credibility? zero.
It is not enough that one person knows about chemicals and chemical reaction to know whether an explosion is caused by the detonation or deflagration of high explosives.
Even forensic scientists do not rely on the explosive residue analysis alone.
if i’m not mistaken, you can NOT be sued for what you say in a priv speech. that is why a lot of them use it for pogi-points. official independent investigation is preferable.
privilege speech – it’s just a speech, they’re not UNDER OATH.
Slip of the Tongue:
…This is probably the last place in the hotel you would want to be in…
from inq.net
‘“See? It’s business as usual,†Ms Arroyo told onlookers, waving and smiling as she toured the sprawling complex in Makati City, surrounded by Ayala Land officials led by its president, Jaime Ayala.
“We are now in a high level of certainty [of an accidental explosion]. I think we are just waiting for an absolute certainty that will happen,†– Puno.”
Who is to blame now if it is really an “accidental explosion”? The victims of the blast are to blame because they are in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Shaman,
But if we dont take the league ‘s owning it whatelse we could?
what else we coudl do?
it appears that trillianes will only do his duty as a citizen and senator on his own terms, his own rules, his own conditions. he rejects our system and he is in his own world. too bad, enough “gullible” people put him into office ensnared by nothing but his anti-government rhetorics. the only way to deal with him is to completely ignore him and his alleged “secret” information, and put the blame on him for any other tragedy that could have been prevented by his doing what he is supposed to do.
from inq.net
‘“See? It’s business as usual,†Ms Arroyo told onlookers, waving and smiling as she toured the sprawling complex in Makati City, surrounded by Ayala Land officials led by its president, Jaime Ayala.
“We are now in a high level of certainty [of an accidental explosion]. I think we are just waiting for an absolute certainty that will happen,†– Puno.â€Â
Victims: Who is to blame now if it is really an “accidental explosion�
GMA: The victims of the blast are to blame because they were in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Victims: Is Ayala liable?
GMA: Shee? It’s businessh as ushual (using the middle finger to point at the victims)
Cat Cat & DinaPinoy, agree to you both. now the honorable senator is saying that what he said right after the explosion was a political statement. a stupid one i think. add to that the statements of the senile pimentel. well, everyone can speculate even our good senators.
““See? It’s business as usual,†Ms Arroyo told onlookers, waving and smiling as she toured the sprawling complex in Makati City, surrounded by Ayala Land officials led by its president, Jaime Ayala.Inquirer”
This little woman is clueless!
let’s say for argument’s sake that it was really deliberate and ruling out C4 due to the absence of its components, the bomber must really be an expert (just like those UP chemistry professors) to know quite a complex of creating a blast coming from a series of chemical reactions as described above.
what really amazes me now, say if the blast was due to C4, of all the places in glorietta, why did the bomber chose that point where the basement below is where the septic and the diesel tanks are confined? why not say set it in a toilet or in a carpark or anywhere inside that mall? what a coincidence.
and here’s an interesting fact:
“And from the layman’s point of view, Uniffors points out, however,
Remember a few years ago, there was a methane gas explosion from an underground sewage pipe in the street fronting the DFA office in Roxas Blvd. The blast was so powerful it tore up the pavement and sent a car a few feet airborne, but there was [no] fire.”
but of course it was a bomb.
“A group of governors, the League of Provinces of the Philippines (LPP), admitted giving P500,000 each to two governors in Malacañang two weeks ago, claiming the money was intended for the “capacity building” of the first-term local executives.Inquirer”
Capacity building my foot! they expect us to believe blatant lies!Garapal talaga pati mag coverup ang Malacanang
“Malacañang dismissed a supposed threat by former Ilocos Sur governor Luis “Chavit” Singson that he will leave the administration’s fold should President Arroyo decide to pardon his erstwhile friend, former president Joseph Estrada.ABSCBN”
Go Chavit go!This is the first and only time I would agree with this guy!
No unconditional pardon for Erap.No remorse,no pardon.
Plus ,it will establish a dangerous precedent for future
presidents who will also be convicted for plunder!No pardon for convicted presidents.
NEWS!
The League of Provinces of the Philippines (LPP) is the source of the “bribes†distributed at Malacañang TWO WEEKS AGO, claiming the money was intended for the “capacity building†of the first-term local executives.
Ginagago na naman ang sambayanan. Akala nila sila lang ang may utak. _ Shaman
Napaka-atrasadong palusot. Parang yun “I’m sorry speech†ni Ate Glue. Huli, bitin at kulang na kulang.
Once again, the Johnny-come-lately alibi might help to muddle and muddy but won’t fly and clarify because it simply insults elementary intelligence.
Makitid, garapal at bansut na pangangatwiran.
“Once again, the Johnny-come-lately alibi might help to muddle and muddy but won’t fly and clarify because it simply insults elementary intelligence.
Makitid, garapal at bansut na pangangatwiran.”
Watchful eye! agree 100%.They have such a low regard for the Pinoys’ ability to discern.
It is always :Here’s a Lie! Accept It!
as the midget said:”Business as Usual folks!”
“Puno says Arroyo set to grant pardon to Estrada !Inquirer”
GMA will grant pardon to Erap to establish a legal precedent!Why not retroactively also to Marcos?
Marcos/Erap/Gloria should be relegated to the Presidential Hall of Shame in the Palace of Shame by the river.
So the next president should pardon the Gloria?Quid pro quo?
“It is not enough that one person knows about chemicals and chemical reaction to know whether an explosion is caused by the detonation or deflagration of high explosives.” – The Cat
Agree 100%. That is why available knowledge should be shared. To inform others what is and what isn’t a fuckin lie.
Geo
YOU HIT THE NAIL RIGHT ON THE HEAD !
“If the facts don’t fit the preconception, the facts must be wrong.”
Tongue;
I agree completely with your mechanical theory, you’re so excellent on your logical principle reasoning. I also have some tremendous mechanical background and further schooling. The principle of 4 cycle stroke engine that is commonly used in trucks and automobiles, the cycle are intake, compression, power and exhaust stroke to complete 1 revolution of the crankshaft.
Let’s go on the diesel engine subject and how it works, On Compression stroke, rely solely on heat and pressure created inside the cylinder for process of ignition. The compression that occurs is usually more than three times higher than a gasoline engine. Diesel engines will take in air only, and shortly before peak compression, a small quantity of diesel fuel is sprayed into the cylinder via a fuel injector that allows the fuel to instantly ignite to higher pressures and heat, it trust the piston downward and that’s the power stroke, when the piston cycle upward that’s the exhaust stroke it discharged the burn fuel via the opening of the exhaust valve at it close when the piston reach the TDC. Thus, become smoke in the exhaust pipe. Can, anyone explain, why there was no smoke at Glorietta after the explosion? It seems that the investigators on the scene doesn’t come up with logical reasoning parallel to the Guru comparison of my friend Tongue.
packing sheet! what’s going on?
LPP admitted giving P500,000 2 week AFTER….
trillanes’ informants knew but decided to release info HOURS AFTER the blasts.
one’s too late, one’s too soon? what the..
rego :
“and also tongue maybe you should publish something like a explosion characteristics of methane against c4. I tried posting you tube videos of methane and c4 but its is under moderation”
my friend rego from way back, thanks for the input re: low kindling temp of methane. I have answered some of the points raised by DJB in my blog in the comments section. The main post also links to a YouTube vid (www.youtube.com/watch?v=PC31eXovlEI) that used 9000 liters of methane, spark-ignited inside a large diameter steel pipe. You can probably see from there if 9000 liters is sufficient to send shock waves from Glorietta’s basement, through the ground floor’s thick concrete slab and all the way up to the 4th floor ceilings.
Imagine 9000 liters (almost-full trailer tanker)of methane gas leaking into the generator room and absolutely no one smelled the shit!
hindi nga bribe eh, “cash gift” daw 🙂
your’re welcome tongue. but take note too that aside from methane you have diesel too. The UP expert is right on teh fact that the kindling temp of diesel is really high and you need 200 degree celcius for that. But methane explosion can easilly produce that 200/
I have no problem of its really C4/Then so be it. But you have to back it up with some evidence though
In the case of methane/diesel theory its really there and this are just as powerful explosive as C4.
Its is also possible that there was indeed as a C4 planted in the area that tiggerred the methane and deisel explosion. But as I ve said you really need to prove this.
Im not really sure if we can just rely on the crater or the damage incurred to prove if its C4 or methane. Unless you do simulation test. But without any info on the amount of methane or c4 were there in the blast area in the blast area becuase we wont know how much methane or deisle or c4 shoudl be used in the simulation test.
On the smell, again I wont rely on this too much . Simply because there were so many materials that could have interacted on the the blast. There is methane , there deisel , there is C4 , cement, wood, metal etc etc etc.
m&m,
At a minimum, it pretty much looks like “indirect bribery” and “corruption of public officials” according to the Revised Penal Code –
“Art. 211. Indirect bribery.  The penalties of prision correccional in its medium and maximum periods, and public censure shall be imposed upon any public officer who shall accept gifts offered to him by reason of his office. (As amended by Batas Pambansa Blg. 872, June 10, 1985).
Art. 212. Corruption of public officials.  The same penalties imposed upon the officer corrupted, except those of disqualification and suspension, shall be imposed upon any person who shall have made the offers or promises or given the gifts or presents as described in the preceding articles. ” (emphasis mine)
they released CCTV footage of the Glorietta 2 entrance last night on TV.
lots of concussive force, no fire. i also noticed that immediately after the blast, there were still a few people standing and were able to run out.
anti-personnel munitions would have shrapnel (like ball bearings in the case of a claymore) that would immediately take out any people in the immediate area.
so… i don’t know. is it a giant fart?
(sorry, for messing up the underscoring)
tsokolet,
At a minimum, it pretty much looks like “indirect bribery” and “corruption of public officials” according to the Revised Penal Code –
“Art. 211. Indirect bribery.  The penalties of prision correccional in its medium and maximum periods, and public censure shall be imposed upon any public officer who shall accept gifts offered to him by reason of his office. (As amended by Batas Pambansa Blg. 872, June 10, 1985).
Art. 212. Corruption of public officials.  The same penalties imposed upon the officer corrupted, except those of disqualification and suspension, shall be imposed upon any person who shall have made the offers or promises or given the gifts or presents as described in the preceding articles. ” (emphasis mine)
cvj: relatively uncomplicated. GMA 7 had a grand slam of good shows – Love Boat, Charlie’s Angels, Buck Rogers in the 21st century…
Dont forget Trapper John, MD and of course MASH. And that newspaper show starring Ed Asner. Channel 9 had Cosmos, Connections, and Free to Choose. And the govt station had the BBC’s Search for the Nile (or something like that) uncut, (with nudity). Now that was TV. Channel 9 and Channel 13’s strengths were the local shows.
On Trillanes, the Senators should invite him to an investigation by Cayetano’s and Biazon’s committees.
‘Cash gifts came from us’–league of governors
ah, they have finally institutionalized corruption. galeng.
“Eastern Samar Governor Ben Evardone, the LPP secretary general, said the governors were expected to sign receipts from the mail and send fund utilization reports to the LPP.”
first, show them your league’s approved resolution (are there minutes for this? attendance list?) that indeed you have singled out the 2 govs (and for what rationale–will your resolution reveal this?).
and to the stupid secretary general: if the recipients denied receiving the BRIBE, what good would mailing the receipt do?
mga unggok!
mlq3,
“hi, tongue. would you be interested in guesting on my show next tuesday, with djb, to discuss how scientists and people with technical experience would go about evaluating the cause of the explosion?”
better make sure it’s djb the scientist explicating in your show not djb the jihadist ideologue pontificating.
ine,
There’s no resolution, attendance list, etc. because the “cash gifts” were likely “accidental.”
The envelopes given at funeral of blast victims (and to the bishops before) also came from “The League.”
“Eastern Samar Governor Ben Evardone, the LPP secretary general, said the governors were expected to sign receipts from the mail and send fund utilization reports to the LPP.â€Â
What a lame excuse! Is that all they can come up with after 2 weeks?
Manindigan: the Pinoy is hopelessly apathetic unless:
– he feels “api†personally.
– you have insulted his kamaganak
– “naisahan†siya.
– “inahas†mo siya
-â€Ânapahiya†siya
that’s why there no general indignation in the streets.
I think the working Pinoy still has no personal connection with the taxes that he pays. They still dont realize that that’s THEIR money. They only have a sense of ownership over the net pay in their paychecks. As soon as they realize that the GROSS pay is really, truly theirs, as soon as they realize that this gross pay is their blood. sweat, and tears, they still won’t feel ‘api’ or ‘naisahan.’ That’s money that should be coming back to them and instead is going into someone’s pocket. The thought alone is giving me seizures, but it’ll take all of us to realize how were being duped before change can come.
you know who you are: so gma said “business as usual” during a visit to the glorietta mall. it’s the same as saying “life must go on for us the living”. what do you guys want? close the malls, offices, schools, markets, churches, malacanang, batasan, the courts and ban all public transportation? should everyone just cower in their homes, condos, high rise apartments and just pray their homes and buildings would not be bombed?
it’s easy to laugh at everything the president is doing or saying. perhaps it gives you some feeling of euphoria when you are bad-mouthing her. clueless? you talk like you have all the answers. you are no good for anything other than verbally assaulting and ridiculing the president, you are not fit to wipe her glasses.
P%$@%$ %$#, ginagago naman tayo nila reyes and evardone. We have to remember that LPP’s president, whose name escapes me right now, in an interview with ABS CBN last October 15, 2007, categorically denied that the monies given to Panlilio and Mendoza came from the LPP. LPP’s treasurer Gov. Ynares also in an interview with ABS CBN, vehemently denied that the monies given, came from LPP. We also have to wonder why in LPP’s full page ad in practically all the newspapers, there was no statement that the monies came from them. Moreover, we have to remember that there was no paper trail in giving out the monies. P#%^@ #$% harap harapan natayong ginagago.
ramrod, belated thanks for your nice response to my comments re causes of gma’s unpopularity. i think you have pointed out some convincing factors, correcting and/or reinforcing some of my views. thanks also for the link. i’ll get right to it.
This is not to condone the practice at all but to make people realize the reason why money is always being given away by government…
http://www.philstar.com/index.php?Opinion&p=49&type=2&sec=25&aid=20071023113