“Concentrate on what cannot lie. The evidence.”
– Gil Grissom to Warrick Brown, CSI
“It’s a scientist’s right to re-examine his theory with each new piece of evidence, Nick.”
– Gil Grissom, CSI
So what do we non-scientists do? Essentially, pursue the paths scientists would take, anyway. This morning, I gave a talk to high school and college students from the various La Salle schools, and one student asked my opinion on the Glorietta blast. And so, I quoted from CSI.
I told the students that as students, they should try to make sense of what happened, by starting with the realization that there is a lot more we don’t know, than we actually know at this point. the little that we know can be gleaned from three main sources. First, eyewitness accounts. Second, photos and videos showing the damage. Third, what our officials tell us.
At the end of the day, whatever official explanations emerge will have to be convincing to the many eyewitnesses, and match what they’ve related and what the pictures show (an interesting entry, with pictures, is in sane psycho, who’s mother is apparently the architect of Luk Yuen; Hueco Mundo says the owner had a close call indeed). Our job as citizens, I told them, is to be unafraid to insist that any explanation given makes sense. I told them that people will of course have preconceived notions or assumptions about what took place, but a sober and thorough investigation -and explanation- should hopefully end up convincing your average, reasonable, person.
And if it doesn’t, ask, ask, ask, until you’re satisfied it all makes sense. The opinions, even instincts, of people who were there, will matter. As will the views of ordinary citizens who try to make sense of the tragedy by comparing official explanations (or theories) with their own personal experience. See delai’s realm, for example, who, when the LPG explosion theory was first proposed, wrote,
they said it was just a gas tank leak. what the hell? when i saw it on tv, i had to say “wtf?” i’ve witnessed a house burn down because of lpg leakage. but it was nothing like it. there was a loud blast and then the house was eventually engulfed in flames. glorietta however was nothing like it. no fire at all. a blasted area of glorietta facing park square 2 flashed on tv. and when the inside of the mall was shown, there was no doubt that it was bombed.
See Turning Points, who has photos and refuses to believe it was a gas leak, either. See Clumsy Limbs who sadly noted that after Sunday’s brief fire, she has had to cancel future events in the mall.
In the end if they can be convinced, all of us should be convinced by whatever official explanation emerges. The trauma and confusion those who were there are going through (and their loved ones, who have just begun to count their blessings,) will naturally affect their attitudes and behavior.
Blogger Cindy.cIndy.ciNdy.cinDy.cindY who was fairly close to the blast, describes the process many others are going through too, I’m sure:
As soon as I arrived home last Friday, my father uttered the words “Military may pakana niyan. Sila lang ang may C4.” How can my father say that? I was disgusted to hear that the government might be behind the incident. And I was scared at the same time because the government can do that to their constituents. Then the news outlined several bombing instances in Metro Manila and all of them showed that the bomb used were home-made bombs. They believe that the ‘terrorists’ are the one behind the previous bombings. Anyway, we have to wait for the result of the investigation before we make accusations, right? So I watched the news and red the newspapers. It has been 3 days since the incident happened but still they don’t have a concrete idea what kind of explosive was used. Some were saying that it was indeed C4 since some chemical components of C4 can be found in the area. But the police investigators alleged that these components are available in the drug stores, therefore, speculations about the military and government being behind the incident should be disregarded. Ganon na ba kadali gumawa ng bomba?!
And the questions that are emerging in their minds:
And guess what, there are no security guards who died that day. Come to think of it, 2 passengers from a taxi died and the taxi driver was thrown off his own taxi because of the explosion but the guard on duty managed to stay alive. Another thing with the security guards in the mall is that they just stand there and tell the people don’t panic. The hell!!! Why don’t you just show the people where’s the safest way to go so that they won’t panic?! So much for the guards…
She also then tackles, next, the kind of talk going around and where officials could do some good by stepping in to squelch such talk, if it’s unfounded:
Yesterday the father of my brother’s friend, which is a Colonel in the military, warned us to stay away from malls because according to him there are 3 more bombs. They do not know yet where the other bombs are located. And according to him, the bomb used in Glorietta is indeed a C4. He also added that the C4 used in Glorietta was less than 2kgs and the purpose was just to scare the people. Then last night I received a text message from my friend saying, “This came from my brother Henry from the army. Wag kayo pumunta sa Global City Market Market and Makro Bicutan… All Ayala Corps subject for bombings. Ocean liners hindi pumutok kanina. Intel info yan, high alert kami…”
I don’t know whom to believe because the news hasn’t disclosed this information yet or they haven’t received the information. And the military hasn’t given any statement regarding this information. But it seems that the info is quite correct in saying that there are still 3 bombs scattered in Metro Manila. Nevertheless, I wrote this to warn other people to be vigilant.
This is the problem: much as the stories being passed around bothers people (see Oodles of Goodles and love-andy and Willie Galang.COM for examples of those who feel bothered) in the absences of official reassurances to the contrary, passing around information may be the only way the citizenry has to cope with the possible implications of the blast. Put it this way, even if the blast wasn’t due to terrorism, it raises troubling questions, as Mara Finds points out:
[B]ut what is being stored there and why it wasn’t being audited and regulated by Ayala Center is a little bit questionable because, allegedly, there is a big gasoline tank sitting right under the mall and empty fuel cylinders being stored there.
What, they can’t find alternative storage solutions that they have to choose storing explosion hazards in the basement of a very busy mall?! While the investigators have not released a definite cause of the blast, whether it’s an accident or work of terrorist groups, it’s idiotic to give anybody or anything undue access to a large cache of volatile fuel.
There are others firmly convinced any official responsibility is improbable, even unthinkable, see Postcard Headlines.
My column today, Defeatism, is a far cry from the beautiful piece written by Patricia Evangelista in Things fall apart last Sunday:
When the soldiers were beheaded by the Abu Sayyaf, we were disgusted, violated, but we could push past it and say it’s the risk a soldier takes. It is the same for the activists and journalists, the leaders and politicians. They’re only names, mourned now, replaced by someone else’s story tomorrow. But what’s different about the Glorietta blast, in the reactions and confessions and the dozens of entries in blogs all over the Internet, is the uniform mix of fear and relief. There is no forgetting this one. The words that are repeated, in murmurs and whispers down the alleyways of cyberspace are the same. It could have been my brother. It could have been my boyfriend. It could have been my mother. It could have been me.
It could have been the girl and her father who had lunch in Luk Yuen. It could have been the boy who was planning to go to Toby’s to look at sports equipment. It could have been any of the thousands who pour out of the Ayala MRT station and flood the crossing into Glorietta. There’s no longer any sense of safety–it happened in a mall, that safe haven of the 21st century. It is the same mall where young couples hold hands while walking, the same mall so many of us who were raised in Manila have wandered into dozens of times without a thought. And in Glorietta 2, where the bomb struck, there were play areas, and toys, and children’s books, and stores for mommies-to-be. Safe? We don’t know what that means anymore.
But in my own space I had to point out one troubling aspect of the whole tragedy is that it shows no one is capable of rallying the country even in times of disaster, when the normal (and healthy) instinct of a population should be to rally around the flag. I’ve learned that readers only react to columns when they disagree, and so I wasn’t surprised when some readers took exception with my generally praising the police: but it is really too soon, to my mind, to come to any conclusions about how they’ve handled things.
As things stand, last Sunday’s Inquirer editorial asked readers to brace themselves, and pointed out something blogger Pwede Na, who has a must-read blog entry which begins with a meditation on our mall culture,
There is a direct relationship between the noise levels in a mall, the frigidity of the aircon, and the income levels of the shoppers — the poorer the clientele, the colder and louder the mall. Poor folk come to a mall to cool down, and to be entertained. They want their money’s worth!
SM North Mall leaves one half deaf after an hour, and you had better bring a sweater if you’re planning to take in a movie. The Rockwell Mall, which you can’t even get to on public transportation, goes for the very upscale shopper and is nearly silent. So, if you want powerful aircon, well, you can get that at home.
A few weeks after the new TRINOMA mall opened I realized it was not going for the same demographic as the Ayala’s Glorietta Mall in the City of Makati’s financial district. TRINOMA now leaves me almost as hearing impaired as SM North. Adjacent to a new cross-country bus terminal, TRINOMA advertises itself as a “regional mall” capturing shoppers from the provinces a few hours north of Metro Manila. You can see the probinsyanos wandering the mall, wide eyed, and hanging on to each other. ATM machines every 50 meters insure that they won’t come up short on cash before they head back to the bus terminal and the return trip to Bulacan, Tarlac, or Pampanga.
And why the public has reacted the way it has:
What is interesting is how quickly we absorb the shock, those of us who did not lose a loved one and who were not injured. On Sunday, two days after the event, we were in the SM North Mall to get some gardening supplies. The mall had about half the number of people one might normally expect for a Sunday. Barring any new bombings, I suspect the crowd will be back to normal by next Sunday.
The October 21, 2007 editorial in the Philippine Daily Inquirer notes the sadness of our country, the fact that there are so many suspects in this bombing. The real tragedy, however, is that for a great many Filipinos and other residents, including this one, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and her government are among the suspects. This is not the assessment of wild-eyed conspiracy theorists, but of average work-a-day people.
Similar thoughts were echoed in today’s Inquirer editorial, too.
A day prior to this story, Investigators not discounting accident in Glorietta blast, word was already going around that the police were rethinking the accident angle. As well they should, since all possibilities have to be looked into. But a hypersensitive public will tend to pore over every official comment to see what it may mean when police officials say US experts unable to detect C-4 component from blast site, when perhaps all the cops are doing is trying to be more nuanced:
However, Razon said the test results could have varied because Philippine and American authorities swabbed different areas.
“The [US] tests are negative because when the US experts arrived at the blast site, they swabbed the exterior portions or the portions that were not directly at the center, or at the seat, of the explosion. That’s why it tested negative,” Razon said in Filipino.
Razon added that, “But when the PNP Crime Laboratory personnel conducted their swabs, it was in the general vicinity of the seat of the explosion.”
“That is the explanation why the swabbing of US experts showed negative results for RDX,” he said.
As it is, even as the latest is, PNP: Accident in Glorietta becoming more and more likely: No bomb components found, they better be doing their homework and dotting every i and crossing every t (and here’s how things can get misconstrued: some would ask, why doesn’t the FBI say something, then; others will say, that’s protocol, they’re guests so only Philippine officials will talk; how to resolve it? Officials should say if protocol’s at work or what to expect by way of an official statement from foreign observers).
Inner Sanctum explores the accident theory, which he says “geek friends” proposed even when official statements started focusing on that possibility:
Over the weekend, several geek friends of mine have put forward deflagration as the probable cause of the Glorietta blast, especially after The Inquirer published a composite image of the blast site inside the Glorietta 2 lobby.
According to them, deflagration is just like a gigantic fart, wherein tremendous gas pressure is released similar to a gas-powered canon–meaning, in one direction–as opposed to the ripple effect of a bomb.
Philippine Commentary who seemed morally convinced the blast was terrorist-related, goes to greater lengths and points to GexCon, a gas explosion consultancy, whose handbook does make interesting reading. but not everyone is quick to embrace this possibility.
However, Chemical experts doubt new blast theory:
Ernesto dela Cruz and Wilfredo Jose, both professors in chemical engineering, faculty members and students said it was unlikely that a leak from the tank containing thousands of liters of diesel at the mall’s basement caused the blast.
The engineers said diesel is not a volatile substance and will not explode as a liquid at any rate. They said it has to be in a gaseous state and has to vaporize before it can explode.
They said that for diesel to vaporize, it has to be heated to up to more than 200 degrees Celsius inside a diesel engine.
Dela Cruz, Jose and the others also said that it would also be impossible that methane gas that allegedly leaked from the mall’s septic tank caused the blast.
The experts, however, said that methane explodes only if ignited. They said a mixture of five to 15 percent methane and 85 percent oxygen may explode when lit.
They added that the mixture should contain a substantial amount of chemical components to reach a blast magnitude similar to the one at the mall on Friday afternoon.
The professors said they doubt that there was enough methane inside the Glorietta 2 sewer to fuel the explosion that reached up to the building’s roof three stories from the basement.
They also said that the rate of reaction would have to be quick to attain an explosion with impact. There should also have been a bad odor, much like that of rotten eggs, if the cause of the blast was indeed methane gas.
More convincing is Tongue In, Anew:
If the diesel tank, which by the way is almost always filled especially in applications such as malls and other establishments frequented by many people, did cause the huge explosion, it should have been blown beyond recognition. Generators used for critical applications such as Glorietta’s are typically run with and without load weekly both automatically then manually for about fifteen minutes just to make sure the Genset (engine + alternator/dynamo w/ Auto-start/Auto-shutdown circuits) and the electrical controls (Automatic Transfer Switch, Paralleling Switchgear, etc.) will work in the event a real power interruption (brownout) does occur. It also ensures that the batteries are recharged regularly. Without batteries, generators are worthless. This regular process, called Plant Exercise, makes it imperative that the fuel tank/s are always filled to its upper limits. Meaning very little space for compression and combustion in the tank’s upper chamber.
What did the pictures show? A fuel tank standing perfectly by itself, except for a small hole and with a portion of the top cover appearing to me as intentionally pried open. The tank did not appear to have “bloated” or puffed out as it should be if it had exploded from inside. The small hole? It looks to me like it was there all the time. Maybe a vent punched out by maintenance for pressure release. This is necessary especially if the fuel delivery pipes to the engine operate by gravity (think pressurized water tanks vs. gravity tanks).
Or it could have been used as inspection hole to check fuel level either visually or by using a dipstick. Some tanks usually have level indicators using a transparent plastic tubing stretched vertically outside with both ends connected to metal tubes welded at the top and bottom of the tank’s side. The level outside is the same inside since liquids seek their own level. But since this type of indication is neither rigid nor durable, at some time maintenance people disable this and use the more reliable dipstick method.
Again, the metal plate that this hole was created in did not look dented in nor puffed out that would have indicated any explosion either coming directly from the top or from the inside, respectively.
I now also remember talking to military officers from the Electronics group called AFPCES some years back who wanted me to design and build diesel tanks thick enough to repel bullets. I was told the NPAs use AFPCES’ tanks for target practice (including soldiers climbing their antenna masts) but when I asked how many have died in the explosions, I was told the bullets just punctured the tanks and at worst, it would deprive them of a week’s supply of diesel but no explosions. Either I was watching too many cowboy movies at the time or totally ignorant to have asked that.
Who also explores the sewage tank angle:
From what little I know about sewage treatment plants (I designed and installed electrical controls including semi-automation modules for, what do you know? A high-rise 5-star Hotel and a mall complex!), the Laguna Lake Development Authority (LLDA)- if your establishment spills a huge volume of effluent towards the Laguna Lake or any of its tributary rivers, or the DENR – if your sewers lead to floodways or esteros flowing to any of the seas in Luzon, sewage treatment plants (STPs) ARE required by either gov’t offices before Environmental and Sanitation Permits are issued, thus construction permits are withheld in their absence. A mall the size of Glorietta, or the whole Makati Commercial Complex or Ayala Center as it is now called, IS required to operate a Sewage Treatment Plant.
Two possibilities, therefore. Either Glorietta has its own or it pumps its sewage into a central STP operated by Ayala Center. If not, then either LLDA or DENR did not do its job here. Or were bribed. In the late nineties, 2 or 3 malls/condos in the Ortigas-Shaw corridor were issued Cease and Desist Orders by LLDA because they were found pumping sewage straight to the city lines. They were heavily fined and closed temporarily until they constructed their own STPs. At least, that’s what the papers said.
What does an STP do?
To simplify, it first screens solids out of the influent waste from the mall, breaks down into “digestible” size large sediments like a giant blender with many agitator blades at the bottom of the tank; then pumps all of it into an aeration tank where air produced by big fan blowers is pumped from under the sludge, making aerobic bacteria digest organic waste. The next tanks would separate liquid from the remaining sludge. Liquid undergoes chlorination before the effluent is released to the city sewers while the remaining sludge repeats the process. This is where methane gas is produced. In large quantities, it may be dangerous as 14% methane mixed with oxygen explodes when ignited. Some large STPs use the gas to heat and dissolve the sludge but in this size (Glorietta’s) there is not enough methane produced to install a collector-burner stage. Abroad, it is common in city-size STPs but of the 3 private-owned medium-sized STPs I’ve worked on in the past, I have not seen one with a methane collector-burner stage, much less one that exploded.
It would be stupid likewise that Glorietta, or Ayala for that matter, would maintain a large septic vault holding raw sewage under one of its public buildings. They employ the finest architectural firms in the world to design their projects, any firm of that caliber would definitely not skip the basic requirements in their designs. So will sanitation and safety engineers, too. Even our houses’ pozo negros have vent pipes with which to “breathe” out the gas. Further, Methane does not stay stable for long. It breaks down into Hydrogen Sulfide which is a very toxic gas. We haven’t heard anyone die of gas poisoning in Glorietta prior to the incident, have we? Instead, what many witnesses and victims smelled was a gunpowder-like odor. Or in one victim’s words, “amoy-paputok”, which is characteristic of a C4 blast. A explosion caused by methane could be preceded or followed by flames and we haven’t heard of any such thing in Glorietta. Let’s take a look at the simplified chemical equation of burning methane in ordinary air:
CH4 + 2(O2 + 3.76N2) = 2H2O + CO2 + 2(3.76N2 + energy
where energy may be all or combination of Sound/Heat/Light/Shockwave
It is standard that explosion relief vents are constructed in STPs, more so one under a Generator room. The Generator Room itself, depending on the size and quantity of gensets, may have several exhaust fans to evacuate the hot air around the engines, the cooling system’s radiators (or water pipes to the external cooling towers for large installations), and the exhaust mufflers. I will not accept any excuse that the generator room is a totally contained/enclosed one, meaning a sealed vault where the operators can die from fumes inhalation either from the fuel or the engine exhaust. It is therefore safe to conclude that the generator room was well ventilated. Blast waves and shock waves cannot be produced like that as in Glorietta (blasting through the flooring up to the 4th floor) if it was not a sealed container.
Now, a room that has many vents and openings, doors, windows, vents, etc. should have allowed the smell at least of the foul-odored sewage, or methane gas, or hydrogen sulfide (when methane breaks down) and it would have been detected earlier by Ayala personnel or reported by shoppers. Any reports? Nothing I’m sure.
That being the case, and all the foregoing arguments here from my raw experience and stock knowledge, all debunks either the methane or diesel theory or the combination of both.
And from the layman’s point of view, Uniffors points out, however,
Remember a few years ago, there was a methane gas explosion from an underground sewage pipe in the street fronting the DFA office in Roxas Blvd. The blast was so powerful it tore up the pavement and sent a car a few feet airborne, but there was [no] fire.
Journal of the Jester-in-Exile tries to tie all the information together (read the whole thing):
Back to wrapping up a few things. In the next episode of CSI: Makati, I’ll be talking about my hypothesis on the why, as a follow-up to the how, the Glorietta blast occurred. Let’s face it — it takes a lot to ignite diesel and methane vapor, even in a confined environment, and the confined environment itself has factors that militate against the ignition of the flammable vapor (e.g., the velocity of the aircon exhaust roiling and disturbing the air inside the confined environment, the absence of any pressurization in the diesel tank or septic tank that would cause flammable vapor to accumulate much too rapidly for the vapor to be dispersed into outside air). Thus, it seems to me that it’s fairly unlikely that this was a simple case of an industrial accident.
Okay, it MAY BE an industrial accident, but it was probably STAGED.
American blogger Left Flank says American troops here on exercises might be playing it too cool (while prudently keeping safe) but also says,
The most ridiculous commentary on Filipino politics, though might be this: “An alternative theory in the investigation into the Makati bombing is that it was accidentally set off by incendiary material inside the building.”
Make that clumsy employee president!
One news item shows how intense emotions have gotten: Kin of Glorietta victims ask Arroyo for justice, not cash. And Twilight Zone news stories just adds to the unease: Calls to Rajah Solaiman diverted to Rep. Biazon’s cell phone.
In the end, I have to say ahnnabanana makes a good point:
A lot of friends overseas are writing about how glad they are that they left because they heard about the recent Glorietta bombing. How the Filipinos have grown apathetic and indifferent to such tragedies. That they’re so safe in America blah blah blah. I don’t think we’re apathetic. We feel bad about it, yes. But realistically, what is there to do about it? Protest with signs that say “STOP THE BOMBINGS”? Stay in our houses and not go to malls forever? Cry to show that we’re affected? Hold prayer rallies? Of course people will still go to work. Of course life will go on. When it happened I was doing a show in Greenbelt, the mall right beside Glorietta. Yesterday I had one, today I had two shows. Something like this can happen anywhere. A bomb can be assembled inside a mall with materials bought inside a mall. And where did the Columbine and Virginia tech shooting happen again? America, right? I’m not trying to go on this self-righteous, nationalistic high horse. My point is NO PLACE IS SAFE, not even first-world countries. It pisses me off when people are proud to be Filipino when something good happens like Pacquiao winning some boxing match then disown the country when something bad happens.
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Bencard
But that’s what the people want,isn’t it? That’s what a lot of people in this forum seems to suggest. Let’s bring Erap back. Gloria is a lot worse.
Up to now, people don’t get it. They are so blinded by the idea of democracy in our country that what they don’t realize is that it’s just really a game of musical chairs…a game where only the different factions amongst the elite sit down when it’s their turn.
The real issue talaga is this: NO one will EVER be the perfect candidate. and sadly, we seem to be looking for a saint in these islands. As if these politicians can be saints on the run up to the presidency. A politician in our country has to make a lot of compromises and dole outs just so they can get to the next level of governance. And then, we act as if it’s so surprising when they start being on the take. Tayo rin naman Pilipino talaga ang gumawa ng sariling nating hukay, di ba?
One argues, we should pay them well, how well then? Imagine if I have 20000 cosntituents and I have to give them 1000 each, that’s what P20M na. If I am a mayor of a vey small town, that means I have to be paid 500,000 amonth. Di pa ako kakain niyan. Will the people go for that? Can you just imagine if you’re campaining for the presidency???
Yes, one can always argue nga, public service. Well, you can’t even do public service until you get elected and you can;t get elected if you don;t have enough funds to doleout.
AMong Ed is the only one I know who was able to get away with not having a lot of funds. But then again, do we just vote in priests to run our government then…? shades of the old friar days, huh???
DinaPInoy,
I am sure you’re a Pinoy at heart! That’s why you’re still in this forum. 🙂
Sorry to the other bloggers here for my rather verbose responses. I am never good at writing short succinct direct to the point responses…:0)
a lot of people from the ‘other’ blog think otherwise.
p2b tsinoy:
yikes! let’s not get back to those old padre damaso days…
but seriously, what do Filipinos look for in their government?
the rich? probably someone who’d leave them alone, allow them to make their paltry contributions to life in this country while allowing them to keep their undisclosed billions to themselves, living in their walled communities, living in opulence. of course the rich expect the full force of the law when ever they get injured or inconvenienced, after all, it’s their money (supposedly) that’s keeping them there, right?
the urban middle class? perhaps a break from the all the taxes (because they’re the only ones who really pay them because they have no choice) the government loves to impose on the people. and maybe, just maybe, a government with enough balls to put the utilities monopolies in their place. those who take the plunge into entrepreneurship would want a government that would stop extorting them; if not at the licensing or taxation office, then not on the street.
those in the provinces? they’d want a government to leave them alone too. it’s been pretty obvious for a long time that the government cares far too much about Metro Manila to listen to their concerns, so as long as the government doesn’t take too much from them in the way of taxes or the selling price of their produce, they’d be fine. of course, it would be nice if the government stopped all of those commies from taking their money too.
it’s the rest of the population, the largest part, that worries me, because they seem to be the ones most open to being manipulated… simply because of what they want: free land, money, and all the manner of handouts.
it may be overly simplistic, but if you look at what the different parts of the Philippines wants from the government, how do you find a leader who’d be able to give all that?
but that’s not really the issue here. because giving in to everyone’s demands is just plain populist politics and it’s what’s been driving this country into the gutter for… ever.
this country needs someone who knows that the Philippines has to be one country first. and work from there.
tonio,
you just pointed out a possible platform for Philippine conservatism.
PTBT, how about “Ang Kapatiran”? or at least the model
of politics they espouse within the frameworks of democracy.
Among Ed is a priest only in external terms, its what is
inside him that really counts…if he will continue true to form, try to replicate him across the nation and lets see what happens…
On the question of “Are we really ready for democracy? at least in the present form that we have?”
I believe we are ready for it if not more than being a society who is moral enough to accept any form of religion and belief. If not more than willing to accomodate dissent and freedom of speech. I think we are more than ready for it and we are doing it succesfully as compared to other civilizations who are older than us.
On the adage that “Democracy comes from the people as well as its reflection” we should place into context the whole country if only to make it fair to others concerned. As you see in Cebu they really don’t cross the street when the light is green. They don’t play loud music in their jeepneys if others don’t like it. In other parts of the cordilleras life is more peaceful than in Tondo. The comparison is huge in magnitude and in context as perception clearly distorts the whole reality of the situation of the country so I believe it is just a matter of narrowing down comparisons and examples that the question posited by {Proud to be Tsinoy} should be considered such as What is democracy? Has it changed through the years? Has it gotten stronger? what is Filipino Democracy? Is democracy working for us? Do we work as a nation towards genuine democracy?
I firmly believe that the issue of replacing our leaders is an issue of morality and not divisiveness. When Marcos massacred thousands of filipinos in Martial Law we were moral enough to take him down. When we spurn cheating in the streets it is an issue of morality. When we became vocal about the wrongdoings of the government it is about morality.
So we go back to the main question. “Are we really ready for democracy? at least in the present form that we have?” I always believe without prejudice that the filipino is intelligent enough to review his/her morals. And if being ready for democracy means being able to present our morality in toppling down an immoral regime then we are more than ready {Proud to be Tsinoy}. ^_^
On the question of “floyd, do you know what should be done?” {DinaPinoy}
I don’t want to sound being a lone authority on this one but I believe that It’s in our culture and heritage to help. People are silent because we are hoping that somebody out there would help us while in fact it has always been in us to help others and help ourselves. Right now we need to help ourselves and our country, how we are going to go about it is relative to each and everyone but I always believe in the strength of the filipino and their judgment.
{Manindigan!} Thanks to you too for always coming here and sharing your piece of mind ^_^
proud to be tsinoy, i agree with most of your observations. i believe, though, that much of the unpopularity of our current president is due to the combination of (a) her inability to win over to her side the supporters of the losing candidates she defeated in 2004; (b) the unrelenting propaganda against her by the partisan media; (c) the bad publicity generated by endless but unsubstantiated accusations, sensationalized to acquire a semblance of “truth” especially to a largely gullible public (i.e., with lack of understanding to distinguish between a speculation and fact); (d) her initial difficulty to turn around fast enough the economic shambles she inherited from her predecessors.
i cannot imagine anyone among the current crop of politicians could have survived the same tribulations as she did, let alone done a better job than she had.
I think a lot of people are also looking for honesty, transparency, accountability, and fair play in government. All of which are sorely lacking in the GMA administration.
Tonio
Ha ha! You are certainly correct! Mahirap pagbigyan lahat. Dapat talaga yung may vision for the country. Ramos was ALMOST there except he had his share of problems also….
ay_naku
all of them were lacking in EVERY administration except Cory’s maybe….eh kasi..please refer to tonio’s description of the different interest groupsnd how they influence poltics in our country (by implication)
Floyd
I do agree with you on a lot fo what you said. But it still begs the question then, if we believe we are moral enough, then maybe it’s really that we as a people, want others to do the dirty job for us….I call it the mauna ka “syndrome” or sa kano…the bandwagon effect???
I admire “Ang Kapatiran” and their platforms and in fact, one of the people who ran for Senator, is the brothe in law of a friend of mine and he’s the real deal. Kaso nga, people expect dole outs in elections, not hazy promises of making democracy work……and THAT is the saddest part of all, as it means you esxchange short term satisfaction for long term gain. (sakit ng bawat Pinoy, including ME!)
Proud to be Tsinoy: It depends… As I see it we’re too busy in uplifting our lives because of poverty that’s why not everyone has “the time” to really act. Another factor could be the lack of a credible opposition (remember germany at the time of hitler?) Good thing is at least our populace aren’t being shaved (salvaged) as compared to the times of Marcos with regards to dissenters.
ay_naku:
i think this is more than just in the GMA administration. this goes on all the time. the others were just better at hiding it.
honesty, transparency, accountability? look at some aspects of Filipino culture and you’ll see that’s these values are just not part of it.
people get mad when others “air their dirty laundry” in public. when you’re angry at someone or having something to say that’s not positive, you don’t tell them to your face, you either drop hints or use a go-between.
Filipinos as a people don’t like being direct and confrontational. They shirk direct accountability, preferring to involve a lot of people so that it becomes a collective issue. Just look at the dynamics of any barkada and you’ll see what I mean.
I really don’t like pointing to cultural idiosyncracies, because i think it’s a big cop out. but i use it now to illustrate that the changes that are required of us Filipinos goes all the way down to the very core.
it is not something that can be changed overnight. but a leader who will lead, who has the cojones to be directly accountable to the people for the actions of the every instrumetality of the government, who is willing to tear down established systems of protocol (read corruption) for the national interest, that is the sort of person that would make a good leader for this country.
there might not be one yet who has been born to do that here.
brian B:
i did? hmm… conservative pala ako? never tried to put a label on my “politics”. 😛
Your politics is also how you see your people.
Hey Everyone,
I am reposting my response to cvj in the previous thread. I hope this opinion can be considered as a cup of solution to an ocean of problems.
If you have additional inputs it is most welcomed, lets discuss and develop it further, if its not feasible then just forget about it.
The three branches of government should stick to their role. Congress should strictly confine itself to lawmaking, no more projects(pork barrel), let the executive branch handle it. Then divide the congressional districts into 6 or 10( can be more) districts (districts within a district).During elections, there will be ten congressmen per district but only one will be represented in the National Congress.The national representative of that district will be the “primus interpares†to be chosen by the nine. Any district representation vote in the national level must be concurred upon by the majority within that district.
With this setup, a congressional candidate will not spend so much during election because he will be campaigning in a relatively small area. The congressman will not be that powerful because of a smaller constituency.
In addition, with this setup the Speaker will not be that powerful, he will just basically take care of the salaries of the congressmen, wala ng palakasan.
It will be very hard to bribe a congressman, because the vote will depend on the majority vote of the said district in any issue including the impeachment.
Since there will be no more projects, any cash given to a congressman or district for that matter will always be construed as a bribe.
(to be continued…)
brian b:
oh. that’s a great way of putting it. thanks.
sad. u dnt consider the activists and journalists killed under this admin as part of the populace.
“………her initial difficulty to turn around fast enough the economic shambles she inherited from her predecessors.”
Turn around the economic shambles??? In the light of the massive fund flows from overseas workers which most probably reach $20 billion (if 70%-80% is captured by formal channels that means the other 20%-30% comes in unrecorded or unregistered)which is the highest amongst middle income countries relative to the share of overseas income as a % (15%) of GDP of the country. India ratio is only 2%
Mexico and India have higher fund flows but their economies are 3 to ten times larger than the Philippines. So the effect on their domestic economies is somewhat smaller.
That means that the only aspect of the Philippines economies growth rate that keeps numbers in positive territory is the failure of GMA’s government and preceding governments to fashion and steer an economic policy to provide jobs to Pinoys in their home country.
Everyone should understand that politics and culture are ancillary to the economy and economic development.
Economics is the center of human development. Weak states normally are weak because they are backward and underdeveloped economies. Hence weak states are unable to assert their sovereignty.
The total of the worlds combined economic output is close to $50 trillion. (in nominal dollars)The Philippines contribution from foreign and locally owned assets is approximately one fifth of one percent $120 billion. Just take the dollar surplus of China and Japan ($2 trillion +) and what they earn in income would be equal to the entire output of the Philippine economy as reported by the government. India’s IT sector contribution to their economy is one third ($40B-$50B) the size of the entire Philippine economy. However it is only 4%-5% of their entire economy. Can the Philippines catch India? Not likely. India produces the third highest number of high skills engineers and scientists in the world. China is rapidly catching up.
There also is a eternity for some to appreciate the differences in meaning of words used in business and economic accounting.
Case in point is an ad that appeared in the papers promoting the Japan Philippines economic integration treaty. A $5 trillion economy + going into partnership with an economy worth $120 billion.
Who profits in an economic sense? Japan. The government says that the Japanese will pour $5 billion and create thousands of jobs. A simple calculation of the cost of this foreign investment to the domestic economy is easy to calculate. Calculating on ROI of 10% to 20 % on top of cost of capital of $5 billion for the next 25 years will come to a cost of $12.5B + $5B($17.5 B) to $25B + $5B ($30B) which the domestic economy will have to earn through exports. The Japanese economy will earn from $12.5 billion to $25 billion if those figures are to be used.
How has the country been surviving all these years. Simply look to the total debt of the country pegged in a foreign currency and the local currency.
Is it going down? No it is rising. That is how the country survives.
Today even the IMF – World Bank admits in their own studies that only three countries have been able to grow and lower their levels of poverty to a great extent amongst middle income economies are
China, India and Vietnam who did it outside the dogmatic policies of neo-liberalism that we religiously follow.
Big Mike and GMA also cannot claim credit for the advancement in new communication technologies that have driven most of the growth in the country. Corollary to that is the fast paced globalization of financial capitalism also driven by these advances as money is nothing but a tool for communicating pricing in current and future valuations. Then lastly we have the rapid industrialization of China followed by India. Their style of command capitalism has increased the demand for resources driving up the prices of commodities. That means natural resources in the ground remaining in the Philippines have doubled, tripled and even quadrupled in value over the last four to five years. That has driven foreign capital in search of riches to the Philippines. It is sad that no one has bothered to ask the President to show the people the economic accounting as to how much the country will earn out of every ounce or ton of resource based commodities in the next 20 years. Sadly not much is in store for the country.
Pray tell where or where is her contribution to all this. The Medium Term Philippine Development Plan has been in place since Cory’s time and this has been hashed and rehashed for the last 20 years. Most of all the infrastructure plans have been in place for the last 20 -25 years and some even longer.
We have been able to solve the boom and bust problems simply because of the OFW income flows. Vietnam had to ship their people to Eastern Europe to work to pay for their war material during their war with America.
In 1972 the country had to resort to labor exports to enable the country to pay its oil bills. The same policy is in place to pay for the living standards of the small minority in this country.
The level of ignorance of most Pinoys concerning this is staggering.
some people will take your post ‘literally’. i am sure you are comparing the ‘magnitude’ and not discounting other atrocities even during the time of cory.
Good morning guys, fortunately I found some breathing space today to blog, I’ll skip lunch.
Regarding the “incident” to date the government investigators are considering :
1. terrorist attack
* no demands/claims of responsibility (credible)
* target area is the basement?
* timing. 1:30PM probably the least amount of traffic
people-wise
* no signs of shrapnel, usually nails/ballbearings
* there is no “HATE” message, or demand whatsoever, so what is the message of this bombing if indeed it was done by terrorists?
2. industrial accident
* a plausible explanation would be that the diesel tank was heated to more than 200 degrees celsius by an initial combustion of the methane gas from the septic tank which was in turn ignited by sparks coming from the machines/electrical installation in the basement. (as anybody with a diesel engine vehicle will know that it’s useless without preheating, I have reprimanded gasoline boys puffing a cigarette while filling up the tank, only to be told “okay lang yan boss, diesel lang naman eh”)
* as methane is currently being used in biogas facilities (retrieved from pig manure)has there been any similar incidents in these facilities?
* but methane has a distinct odor closely related to the specialty of Malabanan?
* did the Ayala engineers cut corners in designing the building?
* if this were true, all of us with poso negros are in grave danger!
3. ultra-rightist’s activity
* again there were no demands
* why Glorietta? because its close to Oakwood?
* the military’s c4 inventory is all accounted for except for the Magadalo’s?
* what for? for the better part its practically neutralized with its leaders in jail.
* this came about because of Trillanes’ apparent inability to shut his mouth (but was it?)
As I wait for new developments from the investigators I’m still disturbed by certain thoughts:
1. why did the earlier investigations yield rdx traces?
2. why was there a “smells like new year” reaction from people near the blast site (was it like fireworks smell/burnt gunpowder?)
I should be more obedient to the calls for silence and wait for experts’ findings, but I can’t help it, nothing can silence the inquisitive mind, especially when nothing makes sense.
tonio, p2bp, dina..
http://www.quezon.ph/?p=1499#comment-575273
we have to reinvent the Filipino. we are not the Filipinos the Spaniards knew. we are the Filipinos before they came.
Again why is it taking so long? Investigations after 4 days should have narrowed it down, instead it gets murkier as the days go on. How long to analyze all the samples that were taken?
devils:
you may have to correct me because my knowledge of Philippine history is atrocious… but was there a Philippines before the Spanish?
weren’t the first Filipinos not really Filipino but members of their respective regional groups? (Ilocanos, Tagalogs, Cebuanos, etc.)
was there ever a “war of unification” in the Philippines that brought together the Philippines, as there was in China and Japan?
was there a point where the residents of these islands saw themselves as one country/kingdom before unity was imposed on them by the Spanish?
i honestly don’t know.
devils,
something must be done about the system, we have the form of democracy but not the substance and essence of it, we have representatives that do not voice out and reflect the true sentiment of the people and the sentiments of the majority of our people are suspect due to lack of proper education…
DinaPinoy:
“some people will take your post ‘literally’. i am sure you are comparing the ‘magnitude’ and not discounting other atrocities even during the time of cory.”
Yes its the magnitude ^_^
bencard,
Now I’m really convinced you are a good lawyer (better than good), as you’ve finally entertained the other possibility, that GMA had certain shortcomings :
(a) her inability to win over to her side the supporters of the losing candidates she defeated in 2004;
* this has been our problem eversince, partisan politics even after the elections. Its like the Nike slogan before “there is no finish line,” electioneering doesn’t stop with the proclamation of winning candidates. It would be extremely challenging to create a team to effectively manage the affairs of the state, too many in-fighting, discrediting, maligning, its a miracle any decent work can be done.
(b) the unrelenting propaganda against her by the partisan media;
*related to no. 1
(c) the bad publicity generated by endless but unsubstantiated accusations, sensationalized to acquire a semblance of “truth†especially to a largely gullible public (i.e., with lack of understanding to distinguish between a speculation and fact)
* you put too much credit on the media, it can influence to a certain degree but its not as powerful as you think, otherwise the advertisements (which are more scientifically designed to influence consciously/subliminally would have all of us scrambling to the supermarkets (if at all that gullible).
* The presidency, take away all its accessories, is a leadership position, it needs charisma, vision, sincerity, strength of convictions, and most of all – persuasive ability, unfortunately this is a gift, you either have it, or you don’t. You can fake it, but it will definitely show.
(d) her initial difficulty to turn around fast enough the economic shambles she inherited from her predecessors.
* the shambles, it would be sensible if you mentioned the legacy of corruption, military politization, patronage politics, etc.
* but economic shambles? I agree with HRVDS. GMA is luckier than Cory Aquino, now that time was a shambles there was even a year with zero GDP growth. There’s an article “Priming Up the Economy” or something like that by a noted economist, I’ll send you the link once i find it. We can’t really take an objective look at the economy if we just base it on press releases. I actually believe HRVDS makes a lot of sense, except that I would always take leadership over economy, I mean people drive the economy not the other way around.
I agree with you that GMA has been dealt a bum card in this but every individual with the audacity to lead always goes through a “baptism of fire” of some sorts, its where “character” plays a major role, the individual perceives, decides, and acts (add communicate) based on what he/she is made of and constituents see this (it can’t be faked). In the end, this process will either make you or break you, or its either GMA will overcome or be overwhelmed…As the events unravel, judge for yourself…
tonio, you are correct!
the first Filipino I am talking abt are the natives (the igorots, and the tabon man) and the malays who came here in their balangays. of course there wasn’t the concept of a “Filipino” back then, but now that history have thrown us in together as “one race,” it’s better to jz make the best of it eh? and i truly believe we will be a stronger nation if all of us would be united. we can virtually be a contained, self-supporting country that can close off its borders and survive bec. our country is rich in natural resources. the economy would roll back to the barter system, but we can be immune from outside shock if we can defend our country from invasion.
qwert, may i interest you in the idea of a revolution? an intellectual revolution, followed by armed revolution.
cvj and I are actually debating the merits of such an event happening in the previous blogpost of Manolo’s.
i believe we need this “war of unification.” cvj thiks we can jz skip it and go straight to the reforms phase.
but how can we when we are so lost and doesn’t know to what idea we should rally to?
You’re right, I think most of your explanation is a big cop-out. Not that I agree that “honesty, transparency, accountability are just not part of Filipino culture.” At the very least, by and large, it is in our household, as well as in a lot of Filipinos I know.
And I do not see how being “direct and confrontational” equals accountability. Parang ang layo na yata ng naging explanation mo dun. How does that relate to the GMA administration’s wholesale cheating and massive corruption (fertilizer scam, ZTE, bribery, etc) and its various attempts of covering them up with lies, lies, and more bare-faced lies (as well as with more bribes and illegal use of power)?
And I’m really getting tired of the “everybody else is tainted anyway” and “sinong papalit” excuse. Pwede ba. Ay naku.
devils,
for the sake of academic discussion, I am for an intellectual revolution, an honest to goodness education of the masses but armed revolution, I don’t know, maybe if it becomes inevitably inevitable.
I am thinking along the line of the advocacy of Mahatma Gandhi (Filipino style). Armed revolution without education is dangerous, the reason why Rizal was against the planned revolution of Bonifacio is clearly reflected in what he said:
“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow?
qwert, devils,
If we really need to go to war, “intellectual” or otherwise, we have three years to prepare for it. Its better to come up with the “Order of Battle” otherwise the list of targets to be engaged in a more or less order of priority. I would suggest some targets –
1. Partisan politics even after elections.
2. Patronage system of politics.
bencard,
Its “Pump Priming the Economy” by Cielito Habito, here’s the link, plus other interesting articles about the economy…
http://business.inquirer.net/money/columns/view_article.php?article_id=95865
ram,
If you have read my posting above, it might help in solving some of your concerns.
so far there is no evidence, either CCTV footage, detail pictures of the ground zero, the crater, shown to the public (CMIIW). We do not hear much about the story from the witnesses.
What we got on the news is always Barias or Razon…..
It’s always their statements and explanation. We just have to believe or not to believe.
Personally, I feel it’s hopeless already….they already have the result….yes..it’s accident..that is the result. I bet the authority just wait for the right time to make it as final result, to give impression that they do something. I think they really tried hard to convince people that the blast was really accident. That is my impression. They seem hesitant to really pursue the RDX or the possibility for the presence of explosive or hesitant to show public the evidence (pictures, footage, testimony etc).
Augustine,
Even if they win this round it doesn’t mean they win the war. War is made up of small encounters, skirmishes, and battles. One thing I learned is that if you really must lose, make sure the enemy bleeds, as the ones who will take your place will have to finish him off being in a weakened state.
This will still have a damaging effect on the administration, the fallout from the press, the reaction of the people, even the reaction of the victims’ families to her acts of condolences.
I recall a favorite chant we used while jogging :
Don’t Quit
When things go wrong as they sometimes will.
When the road you’re trudging seems all up hill.
When funds are low and the debts are high.
And you want to smile, but you have to sigh.
When care is pressing you down a bit.
Rest, if you must, but don’t you quit.
Life is queer with its twists and turns.
As everyone of us sometimes learns.
And many a failure turns about.
When he might have won had he stuck it out:
Don’t give up though the pace seems slow –
You may succeed with another blow.
Success is failure turned inside out –
The silver tint of the clouds of doubt
And you never can tell how close you are.
It may be near when it seems so far:
So stick to the fight when you’re hardest hit –
It’s when things seem worst that you must not quit
Author Unknown
“bencard,
“Now I’m really convinced you are a good lawyer (better than good),” – ramrod
I agree, Ramrod, that Bencard is good at lawyering for his client, Gloria. Just look at how he blames the ills of this country on everyone else but Gloria:
“a) her inability to win over to her side the supporters of the losing candidates she defeated in 2004;”
It’s the fault of Gloria’s opponents for refusing to kow-tow to her desires.
“(b) the unrelenting propaganda against her by the partisan media;”
It’s as if all media reports were pure inventions. If you don’t like what you see in the mirror, blame the mirror.
“(c) the bad publicity generated by endless but unsubstantiated accusations, sensationalized to acquire a semblance of “truth†especially to a largely gullible public (i.e., with lack of understanding to distinguish between a speculation and fact)”
It’s the public’s fault for not believing Gloria’s lies, lies, and, more damned lies to cover up her venalities – “Hello Garci” election cheating, fertilizer scam, ZTE-Broadband scandal, October 11 bribery, ad infinitum.
“(d) her initial difficulty to turn around fast enough the economic shambles she inherited from her predecessors.”
After almost seven years of stolen power, damn those past presidents for making shambles of the economy. Never mind if the economy is in greater shamble than when she found it.
See? Gloria could do no wrong.
Darn good lawyer, this Bencard is.
Ram,
maybe they just win the battle. surely, the blast still have damaging effect to the government, and I guess this administration already lost the trust from many filipinos.
I hope it’s just a matter of time and I hope someday we could end this vicious circle of having bad presidents/governments.
Honestly,I’m really sad now, for all of us, for this country.
don’t you think if it’s methane, people would smell the bad odor before the explosion? where is the picture of the tank if it’s really exploded?? where is the picture of the crater??
ay naku:
don’t get me wrong. i’m not making the “sinong papalit” argument. that’s the main reason why the current administration’s been there all this time.
but i’m also not going to go with the “kahit sino na pwede” argument either.
my exposition above was to show that not everyone in the Philippines wants the same thing.
look at it this way sir, the Filipino aversion to being direct and confrontational also means that we are more accepting of this administration’s refusal to be accountable for all its ills. we simply refuse to take them to task as this would require the Filipino people to directly confront the President and her minions.
if this administration were to go out and make itself accountable for all of its sins, will the people do the “direct” thing and take the administration out of office? or better yet, will the president choose to be “confrontational” and remove the sources of corruption in her government?
no. it won’t. what it will do is it will find some way to hush things up… make things quiet and may be make amends in some monetary fashion. and that’s only if the administration is genuinely clean of those crimes.
additionally, look at the EDSAs. what did the people do? did they rush malacañang? no, they gathered at EDSA, sang and prayed until the government changed. then the same sorts of personalities perpetuated the cycle of corruption all over again.
these much touted “bloodless revolutions” stem from the refusal of the people to directly confront the problem at hand.
of course at this time, this is probably the smart thing to do. no one after all wants to get shot and killed for “kahit sino na pwede”.
Augustine,
If it was methane, that means the septic tank also exploded to generate the amount of heat required, some pieces of septic tank residue (you know what I mean) will have been blown all over along with a very distinctive smell that will remain unless cleaned up.
Tale of the Glorietta 2 explosion:
1. first, the said it was an LPG tank explosion. But upon closer inspection, the damage was so great, hence, LPG tank explosion was ruled out.
2. RDX was found, hence it was attributed to C-4 bomb. Rajah Solimayman Movement tries to claim it was their doing but is immediately reputed. This I think was the story line that should have been which would lead to justification of certain actions of the goverment to follow. However, na buking eto, and backfires. Oops.
3. Blame it as an accident, forget the RDX found, and make up an incredible story that diesel and methane gas can cause the structural damage that happened. Sheesh.
This is one for “MYTH BUSTERS”!!!
Ram,
It’s true. So far we don’t hear anything bout it, and nobody mention anything about the smell.
I don’t how many people would believe that it was an accident. It would be interesting to conduct a survey on this. 🙂
To everyone here: Do you believe it was an accident??
This statement of “pagtiyagaan na lang natin si Noli de Castro” from Pimentel really gets my goat. Is he really that good? Why wasn’t he elected to the position that is the object of his obsession – the Presidency?
Whats wrong with Noli by the way, simply because he’s quiet does not mean he’s weak? Its the same line as those saying there are no other alternatives to GMA, there are, only challenge is, once he/she sits there everybody must lay down all party politics, all campaigns stop, the leaders move in one direction, hopefully pulling us upwards.
“Honestly,I’m really sad now, for all of us, for this country.” – Augustine.
Augustine,
I hope the families of those who died and those that were injured will be afforded the justice that is due them. I hope they can accept and be convinced about the results of this investigations, I hope they will have the peace of mind and will not live the rest of their lives asking the question, “What if?” The compassionate thing the police authorities should do, is to explain to this relatives what prompted them to make a definite conclusion about their investigation. They should be brought to the basement if they can take it emotionally and show them the details, the facts and allow them to ask questions and be given credible answers. I’d like to hear them say:
“Maraming salamat po sa inyong mga paliwanag,dahil dito madali naming matatanggap ang pagkamatay ng aming mahal sa buhay.”
what about this?
DinaP:
sounds like Trillanes is declaring that he is definitely “pulling a Neri.”