Prisoner’s dilemma in the Senate

108 thoughts on “Prisoner’s dilemma in the Senate”

1. As Ellen and others pointed out, Villar heads a mongrel coalition. Thus, I’m not so sure Villar can dictate the Senate’s agenda, especially if it is acquiescence to GMA, without endangering his seat.

   I think it remains to be seen how the opposition senators, specially the 7 or 8 GO candidates, will behave with regards to their mandate to beat Gloria to a pulp. That is where I will judge them, not on their choice for senate president.

2. Manolo thanks for the link. In a game of Prisoner’s Dilemma, betrayal is the unavoidable (and rational) conclusion if the players are aware that there is a limit to the number of games to be played. Cooperation (and the consequent higher payoff) is advantageous only in the case of a repeated game without any ending in sight. The problem is that Villar, Lacson and other presidential wannabees see this as a limited game with the Presidency as the goal. The electorate (unless they choose to emigrate), on the other hand, have no choice but to stay in the game.

   But there is another ‘game’, that between the politicians and the public. Anatol Rappaport has shown that the best model to follow is straightforward ‘tit-for-tat’. That means that in politics, the public has to punish politicians who betray them and reward those who fulfill their promises. That is why a let’s move on strategy is counterproductive since it rewards unscrupulous behavior by politicians and encourages them to act with impunity.

3. It’s three years more but let’s see:
   Villar for President?– no ‘presidential’ charm as far as I could sense. He should have at least topped the recent Senate contest. As for Legarda– don’t think that after a Cory and GMA presidency the people would take another woman for a president in a long while. Lacson– history suggests the presidency is a one-shot deal: lose once, that is all. Escudero– too young I think. Roxas– strongest bet among those being mentioned, but with great vulnerabilities. Look, no one’s looking at Bongbong.

4. I was right!

   That ingrate Escudero was not supposed to be trusted. There was something fishy about him from the very beginning…(talks too much, bad accent, yad-yadi-yada)..

   Tama ang hinala ng madla, Cayetano and Escudero are Trapos in the mold of their dynasties…

5. just to make it clear, the new name for manny is “Pimp Daddy Villar”

6. or “Pimp Daddy Manny”

7. The reign of error in Philippine textbooks can be read here.

8. The Rain of Error in Philippine Textbooks (a reaction to a July 9 PDI full-page ad):

   Authors Lalunio, Ril, and Villafuerte of “Hiyas sa Pagbasa 5” fame would have been wiser (or would have possessed enough brains) to include in their book the word KUPAL (smegma preputii, the medical term for the white, creamy material underneath the foreskin of the penis) and the words SUPOT (foreskin or the prepuce – the skin covering the head of the penis or the glans penis) and SUPÓT (uncircumcised) along with the word TITI.

   It is in the age group of the Grade Fivers* that boys get to be enlightened that in an uncircumcised penis there could be an accumulation of considerable amount of smegma around the head or the glans of the penis. This accumulation may lead to irritation in the area and possibly may give rise to infection. Effective cleansing of the area…if ever the prepuce can already be pushed back to expose the glans (TAGPOS, an additional word for the book) or if already circumcised (TULÍ, another potential word that can be added)…has to be inculcated in the young minds not only to prevent infections but also to avoid penile cancer later in life.

   TITI may be abominable to some (esp. to Mr. Antonio Calipjo Go) if considered alone but alongside KUPAL and SUPOT or SUPÓT, the seemingly objectionable word may prove to be relevant after all because…

   Maaaring mangapal
   Nakaririmarim na kupal
   Sa loob ng supot
   Ng mga titing supót

   —–
   *most Filipino boys aged around 11 years are subjected to circumcisions

9. cvj, you’re right, politicians who make promises and don’t deliver, or betray them, should be punished. however, there is no election everyday, and the offending politician continues in office for the rest of his term – at which time, fickle electorate would have likely forgotten the shortcomings and re-elect him anyway. meanwhile, the business of government must go on, and the nation must “bite the bullet” of it own indiscretion and suffer its consequences. even an unworthy legislator is needed to pass a national budget and other essential legislations. i think that is the essence of “moving on”. in simple words, we have to make do with what we have rather than be petrified with remorse and bitterness.

10. cvj,

    Re Anatole Rappaport has shown that the best model to follow is straightforward ‘tit-for-tat’. That means that in politics, the public has to punish politicians who betray them and reward those who fulfill their promises.

    While there is no election every day, as one commenter here rightly said, the public could and should still punish the politicians who betray them by going to the streets en masse to force that erring politician to turn around or to force him to step down.

    Obviously, there is a need for a strong sense of political maturity for the electorate to do this effectively. It can be done – Canadian Rapaport’s dogma had been put to good use in France no less where the public would punish a politician when it felt that it had been betrayed.

    But am not too sure about the maturity of the Pinoy electorate yet although there are signs that they are becoming changing but is that maturity?

11. MBW, thanks i actually had the French in mind. The reality that there is no election everyday (as Bencard points out) is one of the inherent flaws of representative democracy and as i have told Bencard a few weeks back (in Manolo’s June 21st blog entry), the failures of representative democracy can only be corrected by a dose of direct democracy.

    On the question of maturity, I think the electorate is maturing faster than the politicians and among the electorate, i think the poor is maturing faster than the middle and upper classes, but that’s just me.

12. “Update: Zubiri to be proclaimed tomorrow,”

    what a joke…

13. “i think the poor is maturing faster than the middle and upper classes, but that’s just me.”

    You would be wrong. The upper and middle classes are just dumbening down, hence a seeming surge of maturity for the poor. The middle class has also given up their power at the ballot. You would be aghast that everyone I know (and I belong to the middle class) save for my wife, did not vote last election. The rich don’t care to vote. They have their money and power to compel winning politicians anyway. So who cares who wins, right? Everyone of them has a price. The poor meanwhile, who are the biggest victims of every elections, are the ones so eager to line up at the polls, least of all bec. for many, this has become a business venture in themselves.

    Democracy is monarchy in disguise. We elect our king or queen, and then be at their mercy once they sit on the throne. Yes, the greatest failure of democracy is that elections doesn’t happen everyday. And regular uprisings and coups, just make our govt a banana republic. Where then do we get reprieve for politicians who turn back on their word?

    Let me suggest the silent uprising.
    Bec every politician needs servants, and every servant is a citizen, let them feel our repugnance by their not knowing it. Cooks and chefs in a place that a politician frequents can urinate on their drinks and spit and put icky things on their food. Let them spend the rest of their days in paranoia.

    Ostracize their kids and family members wherever they go. Make them feel how unwanted they are. their kids will hate them for it, and their wives/husband will leave them for it. Serves them right.

    throw tomatoes at them everywhere they go. show disrespect whenever possible. walang plastikan. if you find yourself being offered a handshake by one of these trapos, ignore the hand, or better yet tell them directly: sorry, i don’t shake hands with germs.

    heckle them when they’re around. shout nasty things. be tireless. sooner or later, it will get to them. is there a normal human being who isn’t disturbed when he/she finds out everyone dislikes them? look what happened to Wendy when she went out the PBB house. everyone wants to be liked, and politicans are no different.

    most of all, when the next election do come, punish them, and punish them severely. if they run unopposed, volunteer yourself as the opposition. don’t wait for someone else to fill that place. look at Fr. Ed.

    Gloria will only wake up from her self-delusion when no one else is shaking her hand anymore, and everyone refuses to be her servant.

14. the question is, do we have to wait for a change of the social and political order and forget the day-to-day business of government? we cannot even be decisive on cha-cha, how can we expect a change to “direct democracy” in imitation of the french? as to the disingenuous idea of “people power” every time we are dissatisfied with a politician’s behavior, can we, as a poor country, really afford that economically, politically, and psychologically?

    mass action of the “people” can only be effective if supported by majority of the populace which, in turn, is represented by most sectors, i.e., the middle class, clergy, business, media, the “elites”, academe, students, and of course, the military. the “masa” alone, or even with sprinkling of support from one or two of the aforementioned groups, would not do it. it is easier said than done! it is a panacea that simplistic people of limited understanding regard as the “solution”.

15. Politcians who broke a campaign promise should be punished but there is no election everyday, but election is not the only way to make politicians accountable for their actions or inactions.

    A very good example. Last Provincial Election, the Liberal Party of the Current Premier McGuinty Promised not to raise Taxes, but immediately, upon winning a majority government imposed a $25 a month premium on health care for those with taxable income of more than 20 grands and try to say it is not a Tax. nobody believes him. Later, the Premier humble admitted it is a form of a Tax, but somehow it will pay off 3% of the Province Health care cost and said the low income earners are not subject to the premium. he may had lied, but now the people had to decide if the “little lie” is justified or another dirty political trick this coming fall election. well, politicians everywhere lie, depending who benefits from their lies, the public or themselves??

16. Devils, maybe it’s both, i.e. the poor maturing and the middle and upper class dumbing down. Anyway, your silent uprising suggestion is an excellent one. I remember Randy David writing along similar lines. Aside from the politicians, i think we need to hold accountable the institutions that molded them. For example, we should complain to the Rotary Club about Joc Joc Bolante. We should ask the Ateneo who produced the likes of the FG (and which still harbors Palparan’s spiritual godfather Intengan) to revisit their entire ‘man for others’ mission and see why it has failed spectacularly. We should hold the Assumption partially accountable for Gloria Arroyo.

    Bencard, the ‘decisive cha cha’ that you refer to is hardly an example of direct democracy. Don’t lose sleep over how to mount an effective mass action. It’s not your problem anyway.

17. vic, i know you are a keen observer of canadian politics but unless you make a direct connection between that and our state of political affairs in the philippines, your report will not resonate with, or generate interest of, a lot of people. for instance, in your post above, what has premiere mcguinty’s action got to do with your statement: “election is not the only way to make politicians accountable for their actions or inactions.”?

18. cvj, there you go again with your tired old trick! where did i say cha-cha is an example of your “direct democracy’? i would not necessarily lose sleep, but why should i not be concerned about what i think is good and what is bad for my country? i am a citizen as much as you are(or are you?), and you may be so egotistical but you definitely have no right to claim monopoly of patriotism.

19. Bencard:

    First, the Premier denied it was a tax, but the Media and the voters themselves keep protesting, and the organization who keep track of Political Parties Promises, keep bugging the premier about his Party election Promises and to Acknowledge that he has broken his Campain promise. And of course us in the Opposition, to use as an issue not just in election, but in every debate and discussion in government business and to embarass the Government in every turn. And of course we expect to beat them this fall for that one and only issue.

    So if the Philippines Politicians who make promises and keep breaking them, will somehow get pressured like we do pressurized ours, threw them out for certain the next election, then maybe they stop making promises they can not keep, don’t you think so?

20. you know what, cvj? you don’t have to say or write anything inane just to prove you still exist. but,of course, you still have a right to do that. only, don’t distort what other people are saying, as you are in the habit of doing.

21. And also the Premier can not go to any Public Enagagement without being reminded of that Broken Promise and it is quite very uncomfortable to watch a very eloquent of a Public speaker stutter his way most of time. that is Accountability…

22. Ok Bencard, i can see where i went wrong in interpreting your second sentence. My apologies.

23. apologies acknowledged and accepted, cvj.

24. vic, filipinos, generally, are personality rather than issue-oriented. we elect and re-elect not only those who renege on their promises but also reputed criminals, accused grafters and plunderers, liars and prevaricators, scandal-mongers who cannot prove their words, mutineers,etc., etc. so, your canadian scenario is not in the realm of immediate possibility.

    perhaps what we need is behavior-altering brain operation for the general population. either that or we need a real messiah to lead us – a benevolent dictator who is tough but fair, wise, but will not succumb to pride, greed and vainglory.

25. just to make it clear, the new name for manny is “Pimp Daddy Villar” or “Pimp Daddy Manny.”
    – Nick

    Translation: AMANG TITATITA si Manny Villar or Si Manny Villar, ang TATAY na TITATITA.

26. just to make it clear, the new name for manny is “Pimp Daddy Villar” or “Pimp Daddy Manny.”
    – Nick

    Translation: AMANG TITATITA si Manny Villar or Si Manny Villar, ang TATAY na TITATITA.

27. Re: “we need a real messiah to lead us – a benevolent dictator who is tough but fair, wise, but will not succumb to pride, greed and vainglory.”

    Never thought I would ever see eye to eye with Bencard on a political issue that may be directly or indirectly related to the current person administering the Philippines, but there you are – that’s been my own generic thought, i.e., a benevolent dictator, for a long long time about Pinas and every developing or third world country that’s similar to Pinas.

    Quite difficult to find one in the Philippines, more difficult than in other nations in the region – I would put it partly to our “bastardized” culture which is a mix of everything, copied from everyone else’s which is foreign, etc, that has made us heavily dependent on things, ideas, actions, values, etc. foreign; to me a a benevolent dictator should be a determined Filipino first and foremost, must possess love for his culture above and beyond any consideration, so in that sense, how do you mould people to be benevolent from among whom a benevolent dictator will be produced when they are not even benevolent to themselves? Difficult when almost every aspect of our education, including our language and religion, was borne of copying someone else’s; difficult when the foundation of our being is based on the belief that something foreign is almost always better than our own. The belief that possessing a culture or core values even if remotely foreign is something better than one’s own will be a stumbling block, it is a false pride or a potential benevolent dictator must possess real pride because from real pride stems, honesty, fairness, honour…

    Our most distinct disadvantage I believe is the culture of individualism in the strictest sense (beyond the family border) or personal self-preservation at all cost that has reduced the spirit of “bayanihan culture” to a mere lip service or pakitang tao; I find that this culture of individualism, contrary to appearances, is stronger in Pinas than in most countries in Asia. It is therefore more difficult for a nation with such a culture as ours to produce a benevolent dictator. But who knows? That person is perhaps already here.

28. The culture of individualism in the Philippines could also be translated as tribalism, very difficult to unite a nation that has a strong culture of tribalims – indeed you will need an incredibly strong benevelont dictator to achieve unity and progress.

29. thanks for the link, Manolo. Inquirer today has an article on showbiz personalities and even journalists who have invested in Francswiss. Korina Sanchez is denying that she invested. I can imagine how networkers were dropping names like crazy at the height of the excitement over the double-your-money-in-22-days miracle. Now, the circus has began. Just like in the Multitel case, tales of woe will continue to unravel in the next few days. Abangan 🙂

30. Even a benevolent dictator has to cater to a constituency and it is in the choice of which segment of society to serve that things often go wrong. What is likely to happen (or is happening) is that the elite (and its middle class followers) will use the idea of a benevolent dictator to serve their own purposes. So you will have a dictator who appears benevolent to those who don’t rock the boat (e.g. the Bong Austero-types, Cardinal Rosales) but then uses the security apparatus to stamp out dissent while the former look the other way. It might take quite a number of buried bodies before the adjective ‘benevolence’ is withdrawn.

    On the other hand, if the benevolent dictator [rightly IMHO] chooses the masa as his constituency, then like Hugo Chavez, he is shunned as a socialist without further explanation on why that is supposed to be a bad thing. The elite then spends its energy trying to replace him with one of their own.

31. In the classic Prisoner’s Dilemma, neither Prisoner is supposed to know what the other Prisoner is going to do, because the Police keep them incomunicado. Otherwise there would be NO dilemma to speak of. That is what makes the question of what the “best strategy” for the individual Player might be, interesting.

    It does not apply exactly to the battle for the Senate Presidency, which is more like a Chinese Checkers game, in which the Admin bloc, though in the numerical minority is playing on the board with TWO apparently irreconcilable Opposition blocs and could make either one win.

    I think we could’ve assumed before this morning that Manny Villar would win the Senate Presidency, because Migz Zubiri was going to be proclaimed, and I claim he would’ve tipped the balance for sure and guaranteed Manny his 12 and winning vote.

    But with the Supreme Court finally indulging Koko and calling for a Friday 13th Judgment Day, Koko could make his father, Nene the Senate President, and really ignite the anti dynasty debate!

32. Oh, I forgot to mention, there are going to be only 23 senators so the Senate Presidency really ought to boil down to a 12-11 vote.

33. Benevolent dictator is an oxymoron.

34. What about the greatest Ponzi scheme of all time – modern Central Banking — On the benefits of fiat currencies.

    “Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation…the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those
    goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending, and, hence, positive inflation.” Ben Bernanke before he became head of the Federal Reserve.

    The best performing stock market in the world if one likes that kind of risk is Zimbabwe. 15,000 percent gain and it is beating yearly inflation. This Franco Swiss nonsense is a piker compared to this.

    Big Mike and GMA take note.

35. Juan Ponce Enrile has the most coherent view of the dynamics in the Senate that has led to the odd situation where the Opposition won big in the midterm elections but probably won’t decide who the Senate President will be. He says there are three groups, his own small bloc of about four senators , then the Villar bloc and the Pimentel Group. He blames Nene Pimentel for splitting the Opposition by challenging Manny Villar for the Presidency of the Senate, when Manny clearly ran under Erap’s Genuine Opposition and as Senate President before the elections, its presumptive standard bearer in the Senate. This bears some serious consideration on the part of Nene himself: that it is his challenging of Manny Villar for the Senate Presidency that will lock out the most lethal of the new Senators from a chance at the best committees, like blue ribbon.

    The only reason the small admin bloc of JPE and Angara (about eight senators) became swing votes is that the Opposition has been split by Nene and Mar Roxas!

    It’s not a Prisoner’s Dilemma but a Bum’s Rush. Still, Koko could make it work depending on what happens Friday the 13th.

36. Re: “…a benevolent dictator who is tough but fair, wise, but will not succumb to pride, greed and vainglory.”

    I think cvj and I discussed this over at ExpectoRants once. My point was that dictatorship and democracy arent necessarily mutually exclusive. Democracy is equal rights for all and government with the consent of the governed. Doesnt matter how and how often we the people elect our leaders or whether we elect them at all. What matters is that we can kick them out. 😉

37. http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/silber1
    http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz89

    A short history course on Central Banking and the rise of imperial finance and Ponzi schemes on a mega scale.

    The unborn will pay.

38. buencamino, you don’t seem to grasp it. “benevolent dictator” refers to an idealistic, mythical concept similar to plato’s utopia or king arthur’s camelot. you’re right, it’s an oxymoron now because, they way thing are, it cannot exist in the philippines, as well explained by manila bay watch. if only it’s possible for it to cease being an oxymoron, then we can hope for real solution to our problems as a nation.

39. A ‘benevolent dictator’ (or Plato’s philosopher-king) is not that feasible in our context because once a Filipino leader acquires power, it has a tendency to go to his/her head. I think we need to view our political leaders the same way we view drug addicts. After all this time, FVR is still experiencing withdrawal symptoms and is still looking for one last fix. Erap is currently in rehab and GMA is a certified junkie. Only Cory learned to say ‘no’.

40. Bencard, from Manila Baywatch’s description, it seems to me that the conditions under which a benevolent dictatorship will be feasible are the same ones under which it will no longer be needed.

41. jeg, i believe one lifetime is too short for a good leader, one year is way too long for a bad one. yes, we can kick out scoundrels one after the other, but would you want to boot out a true messiah if we were lucky to have one?

42. but would you want to boot out a true messiah if we were lucky to have one?

    Why would I want to?

43. forget it jeg. i was just asking rhetorically in reaction to your statement “what matters is that we can kick them out”. i’m not implying that you are stupid!

44. It never crossed my mind, Bencard. 🙂

45. I agree with you DJB, it was actually Pimentel by challenging Villar who started this mess..

    I am beginning to suspect that the demolition job for Villar is starting…And if he become president we will be back to our old habit again….

    Manolo,

    Hindi kaya hindi intersado tumakbo si Nene Pimentel, Dahil alam nyang di naman talga sya mananalo? At kaya sa senate na lang sya tatakbong presidente.

    At eto pa, halimbawa si koko ang maging 12th senator. Then his vote can become a deciding vote. Do you think we will vote against his father? Eto yung pinpoint out ko way back, na maging problema pag meron very close relative sa senado. There is just no way that to be independent from your relative pag dating na sa sitwasyong ganito.

46. [i]

    but would you want to boot out a true messiah if we were lucky to have one?

    Why would I want to?
    [/i]

    Because you found a [u]better[/u] messiah?

47. cvj,

    re: Only Cory learned to say ‘no’.

    I find that Cory’s having said ‘no’ was one of the most enviable and admirable actions she did in the course of her political career. In that sense, I find that she’s been the most honourable leader we’ve had in the last 3 or 4 decades.

48. Bencard,

    cvi said it. “the conditions under which a benevolent dictatorship will be feasible are the same ones under which it will no longer be needed.”

    But for the sake of argument let’s pretend that benevolent dictator is not an oxymoron. You said, “a benevolent dictator who is tough but fair, wise, but will not succumb to pride, greed and vainglory.”

    Well, one quality you forgot to mention is immortality. I think you forgot that eventually your smiling Hitler will become senile or die. And then you have the problem of succession and you’re back to square one.

    Think things through so you don’t fall for oxymorons.

49. Manuel,

    Re: And then you have the problem of succession and you’re back to square one.

    Not quite – if you look at the Malaysia or Singapore model, succession was not an issue.

    Obviously, the ideal scenario would be to have a leader who is democratically chosen by the people, i.e., through the ballot. Of course, one may opine that Hitler rose to the heights of power by initially going through the “democratic” process too. In that sense, I agree that there’s no guarantee that a benevolent dictator wouldn’t turn into a Stalin.

    I accept that the term “dictator” is anathema to freedom aspiring people – perhaps, another term should be devised?

50. Yes, ‘dictator’ carries a lot of historical baggage. But the concept of one-man (or one-party) rule is not necessarily anathema to a freedom aspiring people if the–sigh–dictator recognizes human and political rights, and recognizes that he only governs with the people’s consent, and the people can take away that consent. What it is anathema to is ambition. I recall a speech by Teddy Boy Locsin in Congress where he said something like ‘the pigs need their turn at the trough.’ That is where trouble begins: succession. Voting was invented to get around the crisis of succession that follows the dictator.

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