Mystery at Pagalungan

As the Inquirer editorial points out, today is Republic Day, and we should pause to remember today marks 61 years of independence for the country. The editorial, too, looks into the similarity between efforts in 1946-47 and 2006-2007 to eliminate the Left from our national life.

Much ado about the so-called “Human Security Act,” and what’s in store for everyone when it goes into effect mid month. Palace may defer anti-terror law: is this the carrot and stick approach? Tempting, maybe, despite the public posturing of the Left: though news such as NPA lists projects from rebel taxes simply shows they’re bandits extorting tolls.

Even as Neda confident GDP to grow 6.1-6.7 percent in 2007, an internal government report suggests Govt poised to miss tax collection targets this year (significantly, Reuters has picked up the story):

A source from the Development and Budget Coordinating Committee (DBCC), which sets the country’s macroeconomic targets, said that a recent assessment made by the interagency body showed that meeting collection targets in the second semester won’t allow the government to attain its full-year goal.

Citing the results of the assessment, the source said the government can collect only P1.094 trillion this year, which is lower than the P1.118-trillion revenue target…

…Under this scenario, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), which accounts for two-thirds of government revenues, is assumed to generate P746.10 billion, or much lower than the P765.85-billion goal for the entire year.

The Bureau of Customs (BOC) is expected to collect P223.24 billion, also much smaller than the P228.20-billion target for the agency.

The estimated P1.094-trillion collection, which also includes earnings from other government offices, would comprise 14.8 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the year, or lower than the 15.1-percent ratio programmed for 2007. GDP measures the country’s economic output, while the revenue-to-GDP ratio is a key fiscal measure monitored by the country’s creditors.

The entire BIR collection will be 11.3 percent of GDP, slightly lower than 11.5-percent target ratio.

This is what Americans call a clusterfuck: Senate opposition rift breaks wide open. This is why the President keeps winning.

Even as SC allows Koko to withdraw petitions (and he files a new set of petitions), a curious story emerges from Pagalungan, Maguindanao. The story broke late yesterday, and you can gather the gist of it here: Pagalungan ERs nasa COMELEC na. From what I’ve gathered, the emerging story can be boiled down as follows: some of Pagalungan’s barangays never had their results counted!

Fascinating account in PCIJ’s Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results:

1. A curious increase and decrease in reported votes when original provincial certificates and their replacements are compared;
2. An unusually high turnout of voters -it was so high, more people voted than there were actual voters;
3. “Statistically improbable” results for certain candidates.

And also, in Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results part 2, which explains how Maguindanao’s votes don’t match voting patterns in other Muslim areas.

Overseas, What’s the Difference Between London and Baghdad? Then, as Scooter Libby’s saved by the bell (see Saved from prison by Bush’s favour: the White House aide who lied to a grand jury) and there’s talk of impeaching the Vice President of the United States, two interesting examinations of Karl Rove: see Karl Rove, Master of Secrecy and Rove fails where his hero succeeded.

And in our neck of the woods, Singapore and Indonesia Squabble over Defense Pact. The Indonesians and Singaporeans are squabbling, not least because the Indonesians hoped to use a provision for extradition to go after Indonesians who’ve squirreled away their money in Singaporean banks:

Local analysts say Jakarta moved too fast to sign the treaty because the government wanted the extradition treaty. Negotiations for the defense agreement, which would help both countries cope better with disasters and security threats, officially ended on April 23. Since then, Indonesia has asked for substantive changes and new conditions

Singapore’s Foreign Ministry warned in a statement that the terms “cannot be changed casually or piecemeal, without risking the whole package.” That package includes the extradition agreement eagerly awaited by Indonesian prosecutors who hope to hunt down white-collar fugitives hiding in Singapore. Jakarta also hopes to recover some of the billions of dollars of embezzled government funds believed to be in Singaporean banks after being carted away during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis by wealthy Indonesians on the run.

But any Filipino reading the article has to feel wistful when the various regional air forces are compared to each other:

Singapore practices what it calls a “poisoned shrimp” strategy — it might be swallowed by one of its neighbors, but doing so would kill the neighbor.

Accordingly, Singapore’s defense budget, at US$6.9 billion annually, is nearly 3.5 times as big as Indonesia’s. Singapore’s defense budget comprises 30 percent of its national budget and slightly over 5 percent of GDP. The Indonesia Air Force and Navy get a mere US$494 million each.

Singapore has 50 upgraded A-4SU Super Skyhawk fighter-bombers, 30 F-16C and F16D fighters, and 20 of the latest F-5E/F Tiger II fighter jets. Another12 F-15SG super fighters are on order.

Of the Indonesian Air Force’s combat fighters, 10 are F-16s, but only four are ready to fly, according to Air Force Chief Air Marshal Herman Prayitno. Prayitono plans to tool up with Russian Sukhoi fighters and expand to 10 squadrons over the next 15 to 20 years, but currently the country has only two Sukhoi Su-27s and eight SU -30s plus 10 highly capable Sukhoi Flanker fighters and a dozen US built F-15s.

By the end of next year Malaysia will have 18 Sukhoi-20MKM jets intended to replace 14 US-made F-5E jets, which have been in service for two decades. Two Sukhois have already been delivered this year, and the Malaysian Air Force also has 18 MiG-29N Fulcrums.

My Arab News column for this week is Uncertainty Over the Growing Korean Presence Triggers Tensions.

A profile of soon to be Secretary of National Defense Gilbert Teodoro, Jr. in Newsbreak makes for interesting reading:

Still, Teodoro is expected to play a critical role in implementing the anti-terrorism law which he voted against in the 13th Congress. He believes it carries provisions which are prone to abuse.

During his three terms in Congress, Teodoro sponsored legislation that span the gamut of civil rights protection, governance and economic development. His pet bills include a measure prohibiting the public display of persons arrested, accused, detained or under custodial investigation before formal charges are filed in court against them. It also defines the duties of arresting and investigating officers.

Teodoro also wanted the Public Attorneys Office (PAO) detached from the Department of Justice (DoJ) owing to the conflict in the dispensation of their duties, with the DoJ tasked with prosecution and PAO on the defense side.

Unfortunately, both bills did not prosper at the House. The farthest the bills reached was the floor, but were never put to plenary voting.

Teodoro was also open to the concept of having a national identification card, provided adequate safeguards are in place to prevent abuse by implementing agencies.

In his column, Manuel Buencamino says the President can, indeed, use appointments like Teodoro’s to turn around her p.r. situation:

Gilbert Teodoro’s appointment to the Department of National Defense is a very astute political move. His connection to Danding Cojuangco aside, Teodoro has the right qualities for the job. Give him a free hand, don’t allow the usual suspects to undermine him, and you just might extricate yourself from the human-rights mess your national security advisers put you in.

Allow Teodoro – no, encourage him – to “sample” some members of the military brass. Don’t worry about alienating those who stepped outside the law to serve you loyally; the decent elements within the AFP, the international community, and especially the Americans, will applaud and support a genuine cleansing of the AFP and your change of heart. I don’t need to remind you that your welfare is the only thing that really matters.

Bong Austero thinks we should all move on and fight less.

Efren Danao makes an interesting point about congressional inefficiency when it comes to lawmaking. He says the pre martial law Congress handled law making more sensibly:

In many instances, a congressman asks his colleagues to sign his bill as co-authors, believing that the greater number of authors will ensure the bill’s passage. Certainly, no congressman will oppose a bill that lists him as author or co-author.

Once the bill with many authors is passed by the House, it goes to the Senate. There, a senator will file a counterpart measure, with several other senators as co-authors also. There have also been occasions when the author of the Senate version would magnanimously move to list all senators present as co-authors once the bill is approved by the chamber. So, some senators who had done nothing to advance the bill except to be present when it was approved become authors or co-authors.

The procedure in premartial-law Congress was generally much simpler, so it was easier to identify the law’s author. A bill then carried only the true author’s name. If it was passed by, say, the House, and was transmitted to the Senate, the senators seldom filed a counterpart measure. The Senate would generally consider the measure passed by the House and either adopt it or amend it. If it were adopted en toto, then an enrolled copy would immediately be sent to Malacañang for the President’s signature. If it were amended, then there would be a bicameral conference committee meeting to reconcile the differing versions. But whether adopted or amended, the bill continued to carry the name of the original author.

Then

Tony Lopez is all praises for the current Central Bank chief: and while I’m all for giving credit where credit is due, doesn’t this mean then that our outstanding Central Bank chief deserves a lot of the credit you-know-who is trying to lay claim to? Has Rick Saludo read Tony Lopez? He should.

By all means, go and read Mike Tan’s PCIJ essay,

In the blogosphere (and other online stuff), check out PinoyBee.com: A News Democracy, the “first user-powered Filipino News Community for Citizen Journalism in the Philippines.” Their choice of the news that matters will surely intrigue you. Another effort is wired4news with an article I enjoyed: Revisit the writings on the wall.

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