Bombing in Sultan Kudarat. Tornado in Bacolod. Overseas voter turnout remains low, and the exercise might end up scrapped in the future.
As teachers prepare to do their duty, the Comelec claims it will release election results in record time, The military and police continue to be the focal point of press interest. AFP announces mission accomplished in Metro Manila’s slums: whether they were really just building toilets or were campaigning, is of course, up for debate. Talk of a conspiracy theory aside (and the usual denials that Ellen Tordesillas says are ineffective), Ricky Carandang reminds us that what could have been an institution and trust-building effort, to keep the military out of the elections, has basically been trashed. And that the military may be trying to exercise its own command vote:
An officer from the 2nd Infantry Brigade based in Southern Luzon said that on May 1st, the Commanding General of the Philippine Army met with leaders of the 2nd IB and ordered the officers to compel their men to vote straight for Team Unity adminstration senatorial candidates. The officer says he was present the next day when his commanding officer gathered them and gave the order. After the soldiers voted, the ballots were surrendered to the officer and checked for compliance. The officer I spoke to says the group complied with the order and voted straight for Team Unity and the Bantay partylist of retired general Jovito Palparan.
…For Team Unity candidates, the Command Vote makes sense. There are about 200,000 men and women enlisted in the AFP and theoretically, an order for all of them to vote Team Unity could spell the decisive difference for adminstration candidates within striking distance of the Magic 12. But its not a perfect solution. The 2006 Cruz memo prohibits the use of the military for partisan purposes… But whoever was behind the order apparently believes these are minor considerations. Cruz is long gone and remains in vacation mode, Abalos can be counted on to look the other way, and the soldiers can grumble all they want, but at the end of the day they’ll suck it in and go back to work.
An anonymous police officer suggests wiretapping equipment and technicians may be out of control;
Poring over party-list nominees is proving interesting, too:
Marilou Arroyo, sister of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s husband, Jose Miguel Arroyo. Ang Kasangga is campaigning for her in Iloilo.
Folks, note that the scuttlebutt first broached here in July 2006 has proven accurate.
And Iglesia ni Cristo makes its endorsements.
In the punditocracy, my Arab News column for this week is Your Leader is Like You.
Manuel Buencamino has some choice words concerning Manila Archbishop Gaudencio Rosales’ implied support for the administration. H. Marcos C. Mordeno is astonished that the opposition’s managed to retain public support. His views seem to similar to those in Inquirer Current, where John Nery says the candidates have helped reduce the potency of the midterms-as-referendum issue. Butch Dalisay seems to have a similar take on things. See, too, the views of Glenda Gloria and Julkipli Wadi.
Steven Rood has his own take, from a non-citizen’s point of view, posted in the Asia Foundation blog, on the elections (his is moderately hopeful).
Patricio Diaz says we have learned the importance of coalition politics in winning elections, but not in governing. He says we have to return to the two-party system.
In the blogosphere, A Nagueno in the Blogosphere gives an eyewitness account of last night’s Naga City rally in support of Jesse Robredo. He says candidate Sabas Mabulo pretty much confirmed the news I got regarding soldiers being sent in support of Dato Arroyo’s candidacy.
Yugatech says he doesn’t think he’s cut out for a reporter’s hectic lifestyle.
Mock election, fora, and survey fever: Simbahang Lingkod ng Bayan on voters’ preferences, and University of Santo Tomas’ survey: see The Varsitarian report; Ateneo de Manila and UP jointly sponsor a forum: see The Guidon’s report; also in online fora, see kuro.ph and USTexters, and campaigning threads in philippinepolitics.net.
Bloggers of course are revealing, and discussing, their senatorial and other wish lists: Filipino Librarian wishes he could vote for Danton Remoto. Memories of Water, hit the jackpot, atomicgirl (who isn’t even a registered voter, but is flexing her citizenship muscles, I think such exercises are great), discuss deciding on which senatorial candidates to vote for.
A surprising amount of commentary concerning GMA7’s Isang Tanong senatorial shindig. My question to Victor Wood regarding charter change resulted in some interesting entries. katataspulong thinks Victor Wood embarrassed media; other views from T.I.N.A.ntholgies, from Mister Vader, Inexplicable, summer sa buhay ni je, more on the black rainbow of sorrow
Though the most thorough response to the program, I think, came from My Journey: My Life.
RG Cruz reproduces the transcript of an interview he conducted with Luli Arroyo, who seems to be poised to take on a more public role in the wake of her father’s illness. And here’s a snazzy use of our taxes: Presidential Close-in Photographer’s Office.
Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, media, military, philippines, politics, president, Senate
An officer from the 2nd Infantry Brigade based in Southern Luzon said that on May 1st, the Commanding General of the Philippine Army met with leaders of the 2nd IB and ordered the officers to compel their men to vote straight for Team Unity adminstration senatorial candidates. The officer says he was present the next day when his commanding officer gathered them and gave the order. After the soldiers voted, the ballots were surrendered to the officer and checked for compliance. The officer I spoke to says the group complied with the order and voted straight for Team Unity and the Bantay partylist of retired general Jovito Palparan.
A commenter posted this before but it’s worth posting again: Omnibus Election Code Article 22, Election Offenses, Sec 261(d) Coercion of Subordinates:
1) Any public officer, or any officer of any public or private corporation or association, or any head, superior, or administrator of any religious organization, or any employer or land-owner who coerces or intimidates or compels, or in any manner influence, directly or indirectly, any of his subordinates or members or parishioners or employees or house helpers, tenants, overseers, farm helpers, tillers, or lease holders to aid, campaign or vote for or against any candidate or any aspirant for the nomination or selection of candidates
261(i): Intervention of public officers and employees. – Any officer or employee in the civil service, except those holding political offices; any officer, employee, or member or the Armed Forces of the Philippines, or any police force, special forces, home defense forces, barangay self-defense units and all other para-military units that now exist or which may hereafter be organized who, directly or indirectly, intervenes in any election campaign or engages in any partisan political activity, except to vote or to preserve public order, if he is a peace officer.
what on earth is the PCPO for? oh my god.
some articles in PCPO entertained me though. 🙂
oh… alright. 😛
mlq3, thanks for the PCOP link.
we were looking for that all our lives (for our school work). 🙂
Woah, as May 14 is coming so soon, the mind conditioning is now working in full gears. And Manolo did a very job so good job at gathering all them….
Everybody is pointing to the survey that the administration will lose miserably. But if you take a closer look on the survey, the sure winners from the oppsition is only 4 or 5. and there are 4 or 5 winners from the administration too. The rest is up for grab for almost an equal number of opposition and adminstration candidates.
I thought “dirty trick” is only Gloria’s domain. Parepareho lang talaga sila…..
I belive Iglesia ni Cristo has a well thought and also balance endorsement. It is too safe too! They know very well that these are the candidates that will most likely win. I was little sad the curch did not endorse Martin Baustista . I just can’t help but wonder if the church can really make a candidate win. Looks like they are just picking from the likely winners based on the surveys. If they can really make a candidate win, will less popular canidates like Martin Bautista win if they endorse them?
Rego, on the other thread, Ca T has already started rehashing the ‘move on’ slogan. I see that you’ve also done the same with the ‘pare-pareho lang sila’ theme.
I still think and believe ours is the simplest election of all, one single name and done. And we don’t even have to write our candidate’s name, just an X or a connecting line and if the names of two or more candidates are the same, and if some don’t belong to any party (if party endorsed or a party candidate, the party name appears underneath the candidate) the candidate job, or photograph may even be reflected in the ballot, so the voters know which John he or she is voting. no confusion or protest for disqualification. too many senators, plus mayor, councillors, governor, board members, no wonder it takes forever to tally them all. and congressman/woman.
vic: your “ours” is Canada, right? The Philippine election-automation project is far from completion.
Filipino voters have to do the association in their own minds, like mutiny ==> “Honasan”
===> “Trillanes” mutiny.
rego, understanding clearly what you’re implying, let’s define things clearly then.
what will account for an administration victory in the senate? an administration defeat?
to my mind, the opposition and independents have to elect 8 senators. anything less -if the administration gets 6 or more- is an administration victory.
so, 8 opposition/independents, 4 admin: = opposition victory. anything higher, and it’s a major victory and a repudiation of the administration, based on past experience in our senatorial elections starting in 1941.
the other rule of thumb is that those in the first 8 places, based on the surveys, are likely “safe” in terms of getting elected. there’s a may 2-4 sws/pdi survey coming out, that should be a better guide than the april surveys.
djb in:
http://philippinecommentary.blogspot.com/2007/05/theyre-in-home-stretch.html
puts the first 8 at loren, villar, lacson, escudero, pangilinan, recto, angara, joker. 4-1-3 right there.
he puts the ones fighting it out for the remaining five slots at: cayetano, sotto, honasan, pimentel, aquino, zubiri and roco. of those, 4 are oppo, 1 ind., only 2 admin.
So best scenario for the palace: 6 oppo + honasan. but even the admin. who have prospects of being elected, how many are viewed by the public as 100% reliable and loyal to the administration?
ask yourself, those from the admin slate who have done reasonably well -recto, angara, joker, sotto, zubiri- how many are gma originals? so were they elected because a vote for them is a vote for the president and her program, or simply, a vote for them and they were clever enough to get a free ride from the palace?
and what will happen, if let’s say -and anything is possible- a “miracle” like mike defensor and chavit being “elected” takes place? you’ll say it’s machinery. but can machinery replace public opinion? put another way, what did the machinery actually mobilize? real votes or vote padding and switching accountants?
it will mobilize a win…let’s not kid ourselves. that’s why the machinery has ALWAYS been important in Philippine elections. i’m not saying it’s right, i’m stating a fact.
In my opinion, the true proof of administration victory (or loss) becomes more evident in the months after the elections when whoever gets voted gets to vote on real issues.
“Mutiny” kasi hindi nag-succeed, otherwise, “Withdrawal of support” dapat.
mutiny kasi it was mixed with violence…how’s that?
Just posted my own sample ballot. Wow, that was really really hard to do…
Manolo,
Why 13?
I thought initially it was a mistake but you kept reiterating the numbers that would equal 13.
I know Sen. Lapid and Lim are trying their hand for Mayorship but has anyone resigned recently resigned from the Senate?
UPn, yes I meant Canada. Just heard that there was already an agreed proposal that the term of government will be fixed every four years (Federal) unless it is a minority and lose the confidence of the house. I think it makes good sense, so in a majority everyone knows when to vote for the next government. And don’t contribute for expected campaign that didn’t materialize. of course the contributions is based yearly, but I just like to donate during the campaign.
justice, this is why i repeated math 11 twice in college. fixed it, thanks.
Manolo,
I certainly can understand that. I always implied before that my math sucks too.
Ok.
mita, i hope and pray you’re right. perhaps the dynamics will indeed be different, with no red flags to hold the middle back, and an estrada conviction (and pardon) changing that dynamic, too. then again, if, say, charter change succeeds (by hook or crook), then there won’t be an obstacle to her going on past 2010, or having permanent immunity. so the first test of whether your belief will be validated, is how the middle responds to charter change part 2.
freshest survey:
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view_article.php?article_id=65052
Wow. Zubiri is suddenly safely into the Top 12! WOW.I didn’t expect this at all. I guess having his nice-looking wife talk in his behalf worked wonders.
Arroyo seems to be poised for a really bad fall from grace. I pity the guy.
TU can’t cheat in this election – the bottom 4 guys are all their boys!
Mr. Quezon, III
I found your latest article interesting:
“Tungod kay kung dili mabotar, dili kita tawo sa gobyerno, mura tag tagalasang.â€Â
Wow! I’ve always thought “gobyerno sa mga tawo”, not the other way around.
I realize you were quoting from an interview of some Visayan lady, but I’m just wondering if this mentality is prevalent in the Philippines, i.e. a government of elites who control the masses vice a government by the people controlled the masses.
mita:
“it will mobilize a win…let’s not kid ourselves. that’s why the machinery has ALWAYS been important in Philippine elections. i’m not saying it’s right, i’m stating a fact”
cut the chase (with due apologies to licuanan:
machinery=vote buying
machinery=vote padding. it’s a fact.
between survey mind conditioning and machinery, which one will you choose? one where you can dismiss outright, or the other where your vote is dismissed?
mlq, just my opinion, charter change could still happen but without jdv pushing it, it’s going to be tough. however, the incumbent cannot be allowed to gain from the shift. if you remember during fvr’s time, he repeatedly clarified he, as the incumbent, would not be in the running for the post of president. same thing today…this will not be allowed to happen because Filipinos are too scared of another dictatorship slipping past us. if that happens anyway…the last chacha almost went through and would have too if not for one voice.
was in moncada, tarlac this week and spoke to a woman who couldn’t even name the party her relation was running under. all she could tell me was he was running with so-and-so’s group. parties don’t matter in this country, it’s the personalities and the old names that still ring a bell. her take on their local elections, the incumbent would win because “sila pa rin nakakatulong sa tao”…
but isn’t pamapanga an exciting province to watch with the priest running? oh and his posters plastered in so many homes along the highway!
inidoro, surveys are just another form of mind conditioning. bobo lang nagpapadala sa mind conditioning. that’s why we strive to educate ourselves with every available material and think independently.
howevee, the worst thing we can do to ourselves is to look at things tainted with our biases and get a picture that is skewed. the ability to look at facts with as much objectivity as can be mustered is very important because we can think better and make decisions better. what we should always remember is the ability to make decisions is never – ever – taken away from an individual…
“inidoro, surveys are just another form of mind conditioning. bobo lang nagpapadala sa mind conditioning.
i just said that. so you can dismiss that if you are a thinking person. but that’s after the fact. a priori, surveys–when scientifically conducted–reveal the probable pulse of the electorate; hence, one cannot easily disregard its statistical findings. if you want to be a contrarian, by all means, do so. but that would, in the context of a survey, puts you as an outlier.
i agree with mita, it’s still a “contest of names” out there. sure, while the numbers of the more enlightened voters increase, there will still be people who vote a certain way because this is a name that they associate as the people running things in their area.
and while i refuse to make a generalization on what that’s gotten us, well…
Ever since Danding Cojuangco lost in the 1992 Presidential Elections, Manalo’s Iglesia ni Cristo has made sure to closely study survey results before announcing official endorsements.
In the 1992 Presidential race INC-backed Danding landed only third to get 18.17% of the votes. The then very popular Miriam Santiago (with 19.72% of the votes) came in 2nd while the Cory Aquino-endorsed Fidel Valdez Ramos won enjoying 23.58% of the votes.
The next Presidential elections after that Manalo endorsed the hugely popular Erap Estrada who could have won without anybody’s endorsement, while in 2004 the INC backed-Gloria depended on Garci to deliver the winning votes.
While we’re at it the INC-sponsored Alagad Partylist only garnered one congressional seat in the last election, some say, with a little help from Garci too. That should be enough to dispel the rumor that Manalo’s sway in elections.
Ask any INC members who are your close friends and most will tell you they do not follow Manalo when something as sacred as their vote is concerned. They follow their conscience.
glad to hear presidential daughter Luli Arroyo will take more “public role”. she is a humble, low-key and unassuming young lady who, in my book, is a real hope of our motherland. I just hope the predators hounding her parents will spare her and leave her alone, in the name of everything that is holy and pure.
Bencard, luli seems naive and does not have a clue. Or, she might be playing cute. Anyway, if she goes out and does a public acting job, she’s going to get the full treatment, sooner or later. There is nothing holy and pure in politics. The Arroyos will tell you this, if you don’t know it yet.
mantikado, i have a friend who’s intelligent, well-educated, successful and an INC member. she broke some INC rules like eating dinuguan and stuff..but when i asked her about the voting. no way, never she said. amazing…
Mita:
I think the absence of JdV in any future Cha-Cha initiatives will be immaterial. Congressmen will follow any leader who will help them ram through a Constituent Assembly which will rewrite term limits out of a future constitution, be it JdV, Villafuerte, or whoever.
Manolo is dead right about Cha-Cha part 2 following soon after this election. That is why it is imperative that the Senate remain out of administration hands. If GMA controls the entire Congress, I promise you, by next year, they will have made Cha-Cha a fait accompli.
Media is how a community communicates with itself. Martin Luther and the Guttenburg printing press was the catalyst that drove the Protestant Reformation. Reading and writing. Plus his translation of the Bible into German.
Today’s multimedia platform dilutes the effect of communicating since it moves people from having to read. Example: MLQ3 is an effective and powerful writer. But on TV the ability to communicate ideas is somehow curtailed. Video and audio are a different medium. The written word is still most effective.
What will be interesting to see is how many votes the candidates of Kapatiran and Trillanes will get.
Today the freedom of speech and expression should be enlarged to the freedom of access to communicate. We now have a one way street for people to have access to communicate with community. Government and those with wealth. How do you debate ideas when it is the power structure that decides on the terms of engagement? Hence you have the makings of centralized authority that defines the reality with no questions asked. Those that do raise questions have already been labeled trouble makers and you do know what happens to trouble makers.
We fund this travesty.
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/delong58
Why media is so so so important. The ultimate watchdogs. Even though most of the Philippine media can be bought, the few still is enough to keep watch.
“mantikado, i have a friend who’s intelligent, well-educated, successful and an INC member. she broke some INC rules like eating dinuguan and stuff..but when i asked her about the voting. no way, never she said. amazing…”
Mita, you must understand that that INC ministers are quite lenient with what would seem as lesser offense such as eating dinuguan but they bombard their members with warnings of expulsion if they veer away from Manalo’s political bets. Just shows where Manalo’s real priorities are.
I have a friend, a CPA and loyal member of INC, who was very disappointed that Manalo chose Gloria over FPJ in the last presidential election. He said he voted for FPJ anyway and he couldn’t care less if he gets expelled in their church. That, for him, was voting with a clear conscience…
realist, you may claim to be a realist but you are so darn cynical. I don’t blame you for anticipating the worst, having a front seat view of Philippine politics where nothing is sacrosanct. But I have, so far, not seen anything about Lulli that would make her deserving of the calumny heaped upon her parents and siblings. This is not saying that her parents’ enemies cannot conjure up one once they perceive her to be a political threat. They could well succeed. Afterall, fairness is a lonely word in our society, if it exist at all.
bencard,
“I just hope the predators hounding her parents will spare her and leave her alone, in the name of everything that is holy and pure.”
Downright funny. Pathetic!
What, you think that luli is dumb, deaf and blind? You don’t think she knows what is going on? Her parents, in fact her whole family, is causing havok in the country. If she goes out there acting like some kind of martyr, she’s gonna get what she deserves. She and her siblings are just as guilty as the glue and fg.
I know you don’t believe that. To you the arroyos are heroes.
Downright funny, realist? How come you’re not laughing, just ranting and raving (your stock in trade). Pathetic?
Do you understand the meaning of the word? You live in a world of hate and distrust, I, in hope and compassion. Now, who is pathetic?
Between the realist and the illusionist, that’s an easy question to answer.
Manolo,
You are just not getting it. And Im sure your never will at this stage of your life. Not until you throw away your blind fold and set aside your angst ….
Kunsabay you are still young. You still have the luxury of time to grow up. Just hope your are having fun along the way.
betol, perhaps.
rego: without the angst, then what’s left? become a luis villafuerte?
angst…meron nun si mike arroyo…that’s what landed him in the hospital…LOL!
inidoro, balikan mo na si emilie!! pati ako ina-analyze mo na…just don’t make singil for the analysis.
mike, i don’t necessarily think chacha is all that bad. it’s the pushing too hard that scares a lot of people i think. seriously, the current constitution is too protectionist and the current system of government never really worked for us – we may regard ourselves as little brown americans, but we are asian through and through.
realist, i’m surprised at your spelling! so unlike you…. it’s havoc not havok, halikavok…
mantikado, makes you believe what someone once said: “religion was invented to make people feel guilty”
gentlemen: wag nyo na pag-awayan si Luli Arroyo…baka naman taken na sya, we don’t know.
cvj, if you call call yourself “smart”, would that make you one? I bet, with your disproportionate-size ego, that would be a much easier question for you to answer, and I know what your answer would be.
“inidoro, balikan mo na si emilie!! pati ako ina-analyze mo na…just don’t make singil for the analysis.”
haay, mita. if you only know how i miss emilie.
Yes Mita, that spelling mistake is the only thing one can find wrong with Realist’s comment. Otherwise, it’s spot on.
see what i mean? smart, aint he. “spot on”? never heard that expression before except from a certain de brux. could be a leftist coin-words which actually mean “crap stain”.
Bencard, in the recent Presidential elections in France, Anna de Brux (aka Hillblogger) campaigned for Nicolas Sarkozy. That you assign her as part of the left reveals a lot about the categories you keep in your head.
cvj, am i supposed to shake on my knees just because de brux campaigned for Sarkozy in France, or that she is a blogger? you, yourself claims that you “supported” PGMA in 2004 but that had nothing to do with your ideology, isn’t that right?
when de brux was still active in this blog not too long ago, she never disputed, nor denied, my suggestion that she is either a leftist or a communist, as evidenced by her persistent rhetoric along that line. so, you see, the “categories” i keep on my head are not without reason.