Can the economics-minded please answer this question: when we have news of a roaring stock market, no one ever explains just how big, or small, the stock market is, and thus, how important it is, really, in the economic scale of things.
The decision of Pangilinan to go it alone (and his being booted as a guest candidate of the opposition, as Amando Doronila advised) frees up the 12th slot for a candidate I’d regretted being unable to support until this opportunity came along. So my 12th vote is going to Danton Remoto.
How other people (particularly young people) are deciding on their senatorial votes makes for interesting reading. See the choices of The Morning Eclipse, and April’s Site, as well as Cold Weather, as well as Kiss The Rain. Most interesting of all was the mock survey conducted by Manila Boy. General observations on the campaign from My Silent Scream and quasi_stoic.
My column for today is A year of murder. What’s been a bad week for the Philippines, as Torn and Frayed puts it, has been long in the making. The Inquirer editorial takes another look at the Alston statement.
Liling Briones (former national treasurer) brings up the rmotor vehicle user’s tax:
Vehicle owners – and there are millions in the Philippines – know all about the Motor Vehicle User’s Charge (MVUC). This is the charge which is imposed on all vehicles. The law provides that the funds generated will go to the maintenance of roads throughout the country. The fund is managed by a Road Board.
How the fund is managed, disbursed and accounted for is therefore of interest to all Filipinos, especially those who own vehicles.
For the past two years, the Commission on Audit has rendered qualified opinions on the fairness of presentation of the financial statements of the MVUC. The 2005 audit report has 15 detailed findings which should raise the hackles of citizens. The report mentions the case of one contractor who was paid twice for the same amount of P373,05.88.
COA further noted that the Repairs and Maintenance account was overstated by the huge amount of over P124 million! It admonished the concerned offices to “refrain from utilizing the MVUC Fund for purposes other than those for which it was released/intended…”
Another finding is that expenses “not related to the implementation of the Road Maintenance Project and Motor Vehicles Pollution Control Programs totaling P 57.3 million were charged to the MVUC funds…”
These are just three of the COA findings which are based on financial reports and documents. What is more enraging is what is not in the COA report. This is the sharing system. As mentioned earlier, many congressmen have raised their share of the cost of projects implemented in their region to 50 percent! If the bureaucrats pocket 15 percent, DPWH retains 3.5 percent which is required by law, and the contractor wants a 10 percent profit, how much is left for the project? A mere 21.5 percent of total funds!
Overseas, History Unfolding says the USA is still losing in Iraq and compares it to Vietnam in 1963. Blog Them Out Of The Stone Age looks at the “guns for felons” program. One thing our media isn’t reporting is how the Iraq War has surely expanded a traditional path for immigration to the Us for Filipinos: the US armed forces. Last Saturday, at Clark, the hotel was filled with US Army and Air Force personnel, including quite a few Filipinos, either Fil-Ams or (in at least one case I saw and overheard, a Capangpangan whose parents got to visit their serviceman son) Filipinos.
Technorati Tags: elections, philippines, politics, Senate
“The decision of Pangilinan to go it alone frees up the 12th slot for a candidate I’d regretted being unable to support until this opportunity came along. So my 12th vote is going to Danton Remoto.”
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Thank you soooooooo much, Manolo!!!!!
Congratulations Danton on scoring Manolo’s support…
Manila Boy’s mock poll was unscientific, nevertheless it was interesting and quite telling of sentiments of colleagues of mine as well.
Excellent point regarding Cesar and Richard. Just don’t run.
Excellent article Manuel.
Stock market. In the calculation for the country’s GDP the only constribution is the brokerage commissions paid out and the taxes paid out for transfers. Capital gains or loses are not counted in the national income accounts.
The financial markets are part of the financial services of the service sector. It is what is know as a derivatives market. It derives its value on future expectations of a companies performance. (profit)If expectations are high prices move up and when this moves in the opposite direction, down It is primarily for long term investment purposes. Expectations must be based on sound rational basis of companies past performance. In the short term it is susceptible to movement of funds. Being a relatively small market it can be influenced by volumes of money moving in. The Asian Crisis of 1997 was caused by businessman borrowing these short term funds to fund long term projects. When sentiment turned this collapse seeped down into the physical economy and brought it down. (Long story)
Ever since the liberalization of foreign exchange in the country and most of the world the pool of savings of the world are allowed entry into the financial markets of the Philippines along with those of other emerging markets. Since the country has always been a net capital importing economy it is strategically dependent on foreign savings.
American colonization since the 1900’s.
It is a market where savings are traded for and on behalf of savers. (Individuals and institutions.)domestic and foreign. It is superceeded by the bond markets. This is where the state borrows funds from private savers and large companies also do the same.
Please note the primary business of banks are simply as intermediaries for savings. They buy loans (promissory notes) and sell deposits. (trust)The trusteeship functions of banks have evolved from risk management to liability management – fund mangement and investment banking.
The Philippine stock market if the two multinational companies Sun Life, Manulife and PLDT are removed since they are traded elsewhere would have a market capitalization of approximately Php 2 trillion +. Market cap would be the price for all the total shares of the companies being traded in the equity markets on a given day.
Depending on sentiment this could move in either direction.
The stock exchange has an index which is comprised of the major companies being traded in the exchange. They are graded based on their total market cap. The largest being PLDT at 30%.
MLQ3,
Robert Frost’s poem, The Road Not Taken, is thought to be about choosing the unusual path in life, but really Frost says both equally worn and valid. Here is one of his patriotic poems though, which he recited from memory at JFK’s inauguration in 1961:
The land was ours before we were the land’s.
She was our land more than a hundred years
Before we were her people. She was ours
In Massachusetts, in Virginia,
But we were England’s, still colonials,
Possessing what we still were unpossessed by,
Possessed by what we now no more possessed.
Something we were withholding made us weak
Until we found out that it was ourselves
We were withholding from our land of living,
And forthwith found salvation in surrender.
Such as we were we gave ourselves outright
(The deed of gift was many deeds of war)
To the land vaguely realizing westward,
But still unstoried, artless, unenhanced,
Such as she was, such as she would become.
I think it means,
We must not think,
as helpless victims…
While we’re at this,
let me quote my favorite of his:
Fire and Ice
Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
mlq,
As politely, directly (in response to the question, which is about stock markets), and as short as I can put it:
Stock markets generally reflect short term portfolio investments into the country. Thus, any benefit to the economy will be limited to a narrow margin of society that have invested or have the capacity to invest. The most far-reaching or long-term (assuming the stock market “roar” is sustained, stock markets being cyclical by nature) effect on the economy, however, is the positive perception the country gains to foreign investors.
how much of GSIS, SSS and private-company retirement portfolios are invested in the Philippine stock market?
Just to add, rather than rely on stock markets or capital account as indicators, it is better to gauge or benchmark economic performance by way of our current account.
That’s that. A short, non-pompous and non cut-and-paste, answer.
The PSE actually trades a very limited amount of stocks. Example: Petron shares is held by the Government 40%, Saudi Arabia 40% and the balance 20% is traded. San Miguel
large blocs are owned by Danding, government, Japanese beer company and pension funds. San Miguel regularly pays dividends.
The same holds through for every major corporation listed.
The Ayalas, Sy’s, Go’s, Salim all control the bulk of shares that are publicly listed. These shares are not traded.
As far as institutional owners of shares of stock – all pension funds whether private and public are supposed to report on their investments to their members similarly as the few mutual funds (Unit investment trust funds) are obliged to.
Most market analysts only concentrate on companies whose shares are widely traded and traded often. Once again volumes are pushed mainly on a daily basis by liquidity. The narrow market thereby becomes very susceptible to speculative plays by large funds. During the Erap days the market was manipulated openly.
One important item to remember. If any expert can guess the direction of the market 10 times without fail he could turn a million peso into a billion in ten days.
http://www.philstar.com/philstar/show_content.asp?article=286950
Stock market performance reflects the confidence of the business community to invest.
It peaked in 1997 because Pres. Ramos signed peace treaty with MILF?MNLF?(forgot) and was negotiating with CPP-NDF for a peace talk and he was able to implement a stop gap measure for the power crisis. Pres Ramos was great at inviting investors and confidence was up and tourism also peaked in 1997.
Erap became president and he met the global economic slow down smack head on along with the Asian financial crisis. Our economy held on.
GMA knew that Philippine is on the upswing. She can’t stand on the sideline and let Erap have all the glory, she knew Erap will win in a reelection bid and have to make a move or else tagal pa sya maging presidente and all the money that will be coming in. (we were front page in WIRED magazine regarding OFWs at that time)
Sad to say our current situation came about all because of GREED.
Currently, the law does not allow a president to be re-elected, Francis.
I like this.
Diabetes can cause blindness, so is cluelessness. Are you making your own history?
wiljoe,
I thought so too, but believe it or not, the Constitution allows Erap to run in 2010. Now unless he is convicted with finality by the Supreme Court (which is impossible because it is pretty clear he was deprived of DUE PROCESS) and he lives that long, I understand from people close to the former President that he intends to! That is why Mar Roxas has to stick his nose in GMA’s handbag and be her lapdog for three more years.
this is what we get for not taking Cecilia Munoz Palma’s warning about following the Constitution. We never got rid of Erap…
Stock market is where most publicly traded corporations get necessary capitalization.
Rising share prices means increased business investments.
Increased capitalization means expansion,increased productivity and more employment.
When stock market is not bullish, the funds in the savings and financing flows are invested in low risk bonds and other traditional deposit and lending instruments.
Beautiful column, Manolo.
DJB… so ERAP can be President-2010????!!!!!
Sweet!!!! It will be deja vu all over again,
and the marichulambino’s already know how to
get tricked into getting rid of him when
ERAP gets to do what he has gotten to do.
why, what difference has it all made
having to choose the road less traveled?
frost did not imply or even said
he’s contented on what lied ahead…
he could be wrong on the course he held!
Our politics was always about passing the reign to a person who will protect the business interest of the incumbent.
Erap broke this tradition by beating JDV and LAKASs machineries by a landslide.
GMA took it back. She got RE-ELECTED as President.
We now have a COMELEC in total denial of a massive cheating.
An Army in total denial of human rights violations.
CGFNS just gave us one karma about denying anything that’s so f*kng obvious.
PRC was also in total denial of the leakage at that time.
It’s just sad we live in a country were there’s always a crime but no criminal.
Manolo, the following is how “the market†in general may be explained in the light of “news on a roaring stock market†enthused by the “prevailing low interest rates.â€Â
People who put their money in the stock market as if it were a casino have short-term horizon about the economy in general. Their investments in the market have nothing to do with economic development strategy or entrepreneurship for that matter; they are simply in to make money, that is, to buy low and sell high and the difference is basically the return on their investments.
For example, a surprising strong employment report in the real economy (the Main St, so-called) may in fact chill investors’ enthusiasm in the Wall Street (a substitute for the marketplace where stocks and bonds are old) because more jobs in the real economy may translate into higher interest rates to fight inflation. The inflation may be triggered by increased consumption of more people being employed. Central Bank-driven interest hike is one way to curb or fight inflation by controlling the oversupply of money in circulation.
Now, higher interest rates may mean higher cost of capital and higher cost of capital may result in lower corporate earnings and hence lower dividends and/or depreciation of the stock price. So, if it means the cost of capital would remain low, Wall Streeters would care less if people are losing their jobs in the real economy. Of course these casino players in the market are myopic because in the long run, unemployment means reduced consumption and reduced consumption may cause economic slump, and the downturn may lead to lower stock prices. These players are betting however that they let go of their stocks or investments while still ahead and make the less smart or informed (or unlucky) investors bite the bullet.
There’s the perception that business fundamentals and economic facts have nothing to do with stock values anymore, and the big players (the Greed, Inc. as called in the U.S.) are in fact leeches on the “body economic.â€Â
I hope this helps.
DJB,
The Constitution seems pretty pat on the issue but you obviously have a new idea on this so how is it possible for ex- Pres. Estrada to run? Aside from running for Vice or something.
Are we in the same planet. I thought he won by plurality, not even by majority since majority is 50+1. He garnered 39 per cent of the total votes and the rest were distributed to other candidates.
Wkipedia says, in politics, a landslide victory (or just a landslide) is the victory of a candidate or political party by an overwhelming majority in an election.
JL, UPN:
The relevant provision of the 1987 Constitution is Section 4 of the article on the Executive Branch:
Section 4. The President and the Vice-President shall be elected by direct vote of the people for a term of six years which shall begin at noon on the thirtieth day of June next following the day of the election and shall end at noon of the same date, six years thereafter. The President shall not be eligible for any re-election. No person who has succeeded as President and has served as such for more than four years shall be qualified for election to the same office at any time.
The argument goes like this:
The Constitution is very clear that “the President” shall not be eligible for any re-election. But Erap is NOT “the President” at least not anymore after 30 June 2004!
So the provision can only be interpreted to mean, as it does in all other cases of term limits in the 1987 Constitution, that RE-ELECTION refers to INCUMBENTS. Congressmen are allowed three consecutive terms, then they have to stop for at least one term before they can run for that position again. Senators and Veeps are allowed two consecutive terms.
(This idea is not original with me, but comes from my nominee to the Supreme Court: Prof. Alan Paguia)
Webster define landslide as an overwhelming victory.
Former Pres. Erap hold that distinction in our history.
It’s a tricky question, but here is text from Alan just now:
“Can Erap run in 2010? Yes. He served for less than 4 years. Whatever applies to a sitting Pres must be applied to all sitting Presidents. Where d reason 4 d law applies, d law must be applied. Equal protection clause.”
DJB,
So what does Allan say the “any” connote?
There is also the case in Bataan where an official was re-called and ran again afterwards and won. After 3 terms, he reasoned that that his run was broken because he was removed from office but the SC said otherwise.
Erap in 2010? Why not? Let him run!
But I doubt if he can stand up to Noli De Castro, Loren, Mar Roxas by that time. Another thing is that he will be “little too old” by that time. And will still have enough money for that after spending so much of it in current election?
It would have been better if he ran against Gloria last presidential election instead of FPJ. I think he would have a better chance.
I understand that we have mishandled Erap issue before and even now. But hey, he started it all! Whatever happened and is happening to him definitely will happen had he only behaved and did well in office.
It not the fault of EDSA2, it’s not the fault of Gloria, its not the fault Davide…. These people and events reacted and/or took the opportunity from his misbehaviour. Or just a consequence of his own wrong doing. Kung nag pakatino lang ba sya sa poder di sana walang gulo nangyari.
Definitley its not the fault of the people and the nation as a whole! They dont deserve all these Erap issues at all. So spare them.
Why dont we just leave Erap to the political debate. We can debate all we can. Lets leave it at that. He doesn’t have anything good to offer to the people anyway! Is there?
I believe its just so unfair to the majority of the people to be subjected to Erap again. They had enough already. There are just so many thing that they need to attend besides Erap. Majority of these people do not even understand the whole issue anyway. So why get them to decide on the issue? Let them gooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!
I really would’ve preferred that Erap ran this year for Senator (or even in 2004 for Veep). But partly it was Alan’s theory that he was still president and that the constitutional clock had stopped which precluded these clearly constitutional options. Erap is of course a nasty piece of work. But it is crystal clear to me that his alleged crimes were used by even bigger criminals like Davide and GMA to destroy democracy and violate the Constitution.
It is a source of continuing chagrin and disappointment to me that our best intellectuals refuse to admit this scintillating fact: others like Davide, Panganiban and the Supreme Court justices, were guilty of gross dereliction of duty amounting to criminal graft and corruption. But their hatred for Erap as the clear choice of the masses blinds them to it.
It is not Erap I seek to defend (for I personally believe he was guilty of plunder) but the abortion of the impeachment trial by Erap, Davide and present Civil Society is also the source of their just frustration with being unable to impeach GMA.
The Constitution is vulnerable to the insanity of the Chief Justice and the political leanings of the Supreme Court–that is the lesson of Edsa Dos that has not been learned by our best and brightest.
Until we learn it, we shall be a nation of Men and not of Law.
I also am not defending Former Pres Erap, but I respect our Constitution.
The problem is someone did not follow the basic rule of the land, he subjected himself to the process of being removed from office. He respected the Constitution. Being “corrupt” was not legal during his short tenure.
As rego said someone took advantage of the situation…
And as GMA would say, lets just let go and move on… no ones accountable for all the crimes committed because it was good for the herd…
The following is an excerpt of a recycled article of mine that was published by Inq7.net on January 10, 2003, which appear in accord with Atty. Paguia’s theory.
__________
The constitutional provision under question is below quoted with the words or phrases that may require closer scrutiny being italicized, thus:
“Sec. 4. xxx The Presidentshall not be eligible for any reelection. No person who has succeeded as President and has served as such for more than four years shall be qualified for election to the same office at anytime.
“No Vice-President shall serve for more than two successive terms xxx.â€Â
What is clear from the first clause is that “The President” refers to the INCUMBET president and no other. If it were intended to refer to any president, incumbent or former, it would have said, “Any person elected for president shall not be eligible for any reelection.”
The phrase “No person” in next line could only refer to any person who has become a president by way of succession, not by election as the word employed is “succeeded” instead of “elected,” a situation obviously contemplated by Section 8 of the same Article VII of the Constitution which provides that “(i)n case of death, permanent disability, removal from office, or resignation of the President, the Vice-President (in the case of the Vice President, the President of the Senate, or the Speaker of the House of Representatives as regards the inability of the latter) shall become the President to serve the unexpired term.”
The fact that Section 4 speaks of a term of office for less than the full term of six years of an elected president reinforces the interpretation that this clause refers to accession to the presidency by succession and not by election. Following this interpretation, Ms. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo who merely succeeded Joseph Estrada after the latter’s “resignation,” would have been disqualified from being elected “to the same office at anytime” had she served “as such for more than four years.”
Not being an incumbent president or one who has assumed the presidency by way of the application of the rule of succession under the Constitution, either Ramos or Estrada, absent any other ineligibility, are not disqualified to run for reelection in 2010.
It is noteworthy that the disqualification in the succeeding paragraph that states “No Vice-President shall serve for more than two successive terms” omits to mention “President.” The omission is logical apparently to avoid redundancy (or inconsistency) as the incumbent president, pursuant to the clause first quoted, is already ineligible for reelection. What is clear from this particular provision is that the disqualification is with regard to serving “more than two successive terms.”
Hence, the ineligibility is equally inapplicable to either Ramos or Estrada (assuming that by an overstretch of the imagination the word “President” could even be read into it upon a rather farfetched suggestion of an inadvertent omission) considering that there are two intervening presidents (Estrada and Ms. Macapagal) between Ramos’ election and his possible reelection or one intervening president (Ms. Macapagal) as in the case of Estrada.
So, as rego said: Let the lolos goooooooo!!!!!!!
DJB,
Please get over it. People Power is now law and as God-term as Democracy, GMA’s recent desecration of its hallowed office notwithstanding. The Filipino is patient, Ninoy said. So is People Power. But as we Filipinos know, our patience has limit.
Abe,
I’d love to let the lolos go. But not the Law. Not the Law!
My problem is, it is obvious to my mind, my conscience, my entire comprehension, that Davide is an assassin of the Law, a hypocrite who relies on other hypocrites to acquiesce to his evil acts, to his supreme dereliction of duty. Just like Joker! GMA is not even as guilty as them in this regard, for she is not a lawyer, not a Justice, but a mere moral dwarf. But they pretend to be God-fearing Bible reading Christians.
When the truth is they are sons of the Father of All Lies. And we are their dupes if we accept them. History must not proceed upon such deceit. I cannot permit it and have any shred of self-respect if I do nothing but acquiesce.
“I really would’ve preferred that Erap ran this year for Senator (or even in 2004 for Veep). But partly it was Alan’s theory that he was still president and that the constitutional clock had stopped which precluded these clearly constitutional options. Erap is of course a nasty piece of work. But it is crystal clear to me that his alleged crimes were used by even bigger criminals like Davide and GMA to destroy democracy and violate the Constitution. ” -DJB
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Why? Erap is very visible in this election even spending most of his money for it. All his fans can vote straight GO team and trash Team Unity. Does he really have to personally run for senate? Loi and Jinggoy is already there. Whatever good their family have for the people they can very well do it through these two family reps. That is IF they really have something good for the people.
As to Gloria and Davide doing more criminal acts…. Then why not just go for Gloria and Davide? Prosecute them. Challenge the Davide decision in SC. But wasn’t this done already?
There may be some errors comitted. Better things that should have been done instead. But I dont think we can turn back the clock just like that.
It was just saying, if only Ninoy became a president or Raul Roco or Manglapus or Salonga or FPJ….or Peter o’Toole should won the won the Oscars way way back. But it just did not happen. We just dont have control over these thing to happen. And we can never make these things to happen anymore.
We cannot just dwell so much on these kind of thoughts. Waste so much time on the injustices done to Erap and his followers. Especially if theres is really nothing good to gain from it….
” My problem is, it is obvious to my mind, my conscience, my entire comprehension, that Davide is an assassin of the Law, a hypocrite who relies on other hypocrites to acquiesce to his evil acts, to his supreme dereliction of duty. Just like Joker! GMA is not even as guilty as them in this regard, for she is not a lawyer, not a Justice, but a mere moral dwarf. But they pretend to be God-fearing Bible reading Christians”. – DJB
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DJB, I thought you are not a lawyer, are you?
mlq3,
I am confused. I re-read your November 16, 2006 entry and your February 12, 2007 entry, including your reply to tagabukid, chris, et al.
Why not vote for Dr. Martin Bautista, Jesus Zosimo Paredes and Adrian Sison of Ang Kapatiran? Wouldn’t they be better choices than, say, John Osmena, Trillanes or Sonia Roco? It seems that they too have their hearts and brains in the right place.
DJB,
I have argued this issue many times already before, with you and others. And I do agree with you that both Davide and Panganiban are somehow perpetually in constitutional bind, although from somewhat different dimension.
Here’s one of those what I written . . .
The question about the rebellious complexion of the act Chief Justice Davide has been answered, clearly but quite unintentionally, by Justice Artemio V. Panganiban, Davide’s comrade-in-arms during the uprising. In his book Reforming the Judiciary, Justice Panganiban wrote:
“(F)rankly, I am still wondering up to now how I had summoned the courage to propose the oath-taking of Mrs. Arroyo even when she had not yet requested it, and even when President Estrada was still in Malacañang; and why Chief Justice Davide immediately agreed to it, even prior to consultation with the other justices.
“The Chief Justice and I both knew that the Supreme Court was a passive institution and that, ordinarily, justices did not take active part in political events. The Court’s extraordinary action to resolve an extraordinary situation can only be explained as the work of the Holy Spirit on both of us and, in fact, on all the key players of EDSA 2.†(Italics mine)
In the main, the “rebelling†justices have been, I believe, in some constitutional bind today – but certainly not the GMA government owing to many legitimating factors such as the recognition by various political institutions in the Philippine and by the international community – because of twin faux pas, namely:
1) The timidity of GMA to declare a revolutionary government, and
2) The undue activism of the Supreme Court in passing upon and yet denying the people-powered ascendancy to the presidency of GMA, which is essentially a political question.
In strict constitutional sense, the juridical order not having been altered or perturbed by the logic of the Supreme Court’s own rulings [in Estrada v. Desierto where EDSA II was ruled by the SC as not a rebellion but only an exercise in free speech), EDSA II [and the active participation of Davide and Panganiban in the rebellion] notwithstanding, one would be hard put to defend the constitutionality of the acts of Davide, et al. [meaning Reyes, GMA and the like].
But then again, who has the final say to say so? [I was here alluding to the people’s acquiescence after Estrada v. Desierto, acquiescence per se being a valid constitutional doctrine.]
Abe,
There is nothing FINAL about a Supreme Court Decision. By the way I’ve never had any problem with Davide’s written decisions. Remember, he did not write Estrada v. Arroyo or Estrada v. Desierto. He and panganiban recused. It is his ACTS on 20 January 2001 that were derelictions of duty and violations of the oath of impartiality of every judge. He had no official business at Edsa Shrine on that day, even if he was wearing the robes of the Chief Justice. His duty was to hold the impeachment trial. But no! he thought that Erap would probably be acquitted, that is why he aborted the trial. And that is why civil society let him do it. He was naked morally then, he is naked morally now, yet people, good people, insist he had on beautiful clothes.
As for the finality of every SC decision, that is a complete myth. There is never anything final about a Supreme Court decision, because any decision can be reversed by a future Supreme Court.
Take a hundred years of pro-slavery decision making by the US SC. Poof when Abe Lincoln came along.
People only say it is final when they happen to agree with it.
aames, one reason is a pragmatic one. it’s more important to present a united front vs. the administration, which is set to use every means, fair and foul, to capture this election. for all its faults the opposition has been manning the line vs. the admin. ang kapatiran only joined during the anti cha cha campaign. in any other election, i wouldn’t vote a straight ticket but not this time around. this is the reason i’ve dropped kiko pangilinan -by all means he can espouse a middle path, but the time to propose and promote that was before the battle lines were drawn, not now.
i do believe the opposition slate is better, in total, than the administration, though in many cases only marginally so. not least because its membership is (again, marginally) more consistent than the admin, and because if politics is a continuum, then far better to take the risk of joining the opposition than to rationalize by obtaining the benefits of joining the administration (e.g. joker and recto).
also, i strongly disagree with two planks of the ang kapatiran platform: requiring a college degree for elected officials and the god-centered stuff, we don’t need a catholic party.
in the end, where will my protest vote matter more? i think it will matter more if cast with the opposition. that it’s the lesser of many evils simply goes to show how much more work needs to be done later on.
“People only say it is final when they happen to agree with it.â€Â
DJB, that’s exactly what I’m trying to covey when I said: “But then again, who has the final say to say so?†where I was alluding to the people’s acquiescence after Estrada v. Desierto. Without such an acquiescence, Davide and Panganiban would remain what I would prefer to call “political criminals,†to say the least.
Ultimately, what legitimized EDSA II was when the GMA government was able to defend the State against the so-called EDSA Tres; and thereafter, the administration slate trouncing the Erap senatorial candidates in the mid-term elections that followed was certainly more than icing on the cake.
On the same breadth, the focus of mlq3 today to defeat the GMA candidates in the forthcoming mid-term elections is just the right short-run strategy, I suppose, to continue the illegitimation of the GMA regime since Hello Garci.
“On the same breadth, the focus of mlq3 today to defeat the GMA candidates in the forthcoming mid-term elections is just the right short-run strategy, I suppose, to continue the illegitimation of the GMA regime since Hello Garci. ” – Abe.
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How can this be? Manolo is espousing a 12-0 win and this is not possible at all.! What happen if this do not materialized like 11-1. or 9-3 or even worse 6-6. Will this “legitimize” the Gloria administration.?
I strongly believe that this election will never ever address the legitamcy issue being raised by the some sectors…..
Ca T, the term landslide can also be used to describe how close the race was. In 1998, Joe De Venecia, who ended up in second place, got only 4.4 million votes. That means that Erap won by a wide-margin (more than 2:1), which means, a ‘landslide’. It’s a pity that, at that time, JdV was not smart enough to call for a Constitutional ammendment for run-off elections.
cvj,
said who?
if it was a close race ,then the margin would be small.
jdv is not only the presidential aspirant in 1998. Take the total of the voters and compare the percentage of votes garnered by erap.
That is how to compute if it is more than the majority. Otherwise, the landslide as used by the journalists to describe such a win was a misnomer.
Then it should have been written, he won by a wide margin over his closest rival, JDV.
It seems, it cannot be described as close fight, isn’t it?
DJB… If FPJ whose citizenship was in question can run for President, then ERAP can run for President (while it takes the Supreme Court to decide whether or not he can run since he has served for less than 4 years).
My suspicion is that ERAP will lose in 2010 if he were to run — too old and with too much dirty linen already aired in public.
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And Abe… are you clamoring for another PeoPlePower? 1986, 2001, or the Iglesia-ni-Cristo orchestrated EDSA-tres?
“How can this be? Manolo is espousing a 12-0 win and this is not possible at all.! What happen if this do not materialized like 11-1. or 9-3 or even worse 6-6. Will this “legitimize†the Gloria administration.?” -Rego
The fight is not in the Senate but in the Lower House. Even with a 12-0 victory, that would be useless unless we capture enough seats to have enough votes to send the impeachment there. Malcañang had all of you bamboozled thinking it cares about the senate. Remember, the senate is there to be abolished, not to be fought upon. Think GMA and her cohorts has shelved CHA-CHA? GMA can never again step back into private life as long as she lives with the many controversies hounding her. The best she can hope for is a life like Erap’s, which I think would be too good for her, and would not be allowed by the people who would be ousting her in the future. And make no mistake, she will try her hands at extending her reign, and like all dictators before her, will fall like an idol with clays of feet.
I do suggest this for those who’ll have the chance to render her just punishment: that she be raped by the ugliest, hariest animals we can find on this planet. She has done enough raping of this country that it’s just right for her turn to come.
By definition, you’re correct. Conversely, if the race was not close, then the margin would be wide. And if the margin was wide enough, then it can be called winning by a landslide. 11 million (for Erap) vs. 4.4 million (for JDV) looks like a wide enough margin.
Same same. In tagalog, it could be written, natabunan si JDV ng mga boto para kay Erap. ‘Natabunan>/i>’, as well as ‘natambakan‘ and ‘nabaon‘ can all be loosely (but nevertheless acceptably) translated as being ‘buried in a landslide’. That’s what happened to JDV and the other candidates who ran against Erap in 1998.
sorry for the unclosed tag.
Rego, Upn, Devil,
What’s really being argued is that a “convincing†win by the opposition in the forthcoming election would be seen as repudiation of the GMA government and of the way its allies in the House have handled the impeachments. Were our government a parliamentary one of sort, that would translate into a vote of no confidence resulting in a change of government (sans People Power as we know it). And whether 9-3 or 8-4 or 12-0 in the senate contest would define “convincing,†even on that I guess the people would be the final judge, with both camps being expected to spin the meaning of it to suit their intentions. Politics being essentially local – in the Philippines in particular – I’m not sure whether the same yardstick could be applied to the contest for the lower house seats.
Ultimately, the key question will always be: Will the true will of the people be reflected in a fair and free election?
With the ghost of the Hello Garci tapes scandal still lengthening upon the doorsteps of GMA and her military co-operators, the party in power has a tall order to show to the world that a win on its part is fair and square. A contrary perception may prolong instability or test anew the patience of People Power.
DJB,
I see Paguia’s point. Though this will have to face an intense fight in the SC and survive the minds of the framer’s of the Constitution, interpretation of the voters who accepted the Charter then,….
But I agree with UPN that ex-Pres. Estrada will lose should he decide to run again for President.
Time will not be on his side. And with it, money.
Since the only expected presidential election is in 2010, I see no way the SC will decide on this until the candidacy is open for the Presidency and the ex- pres. files and thus challenged.
If he files immediately when the period opens, he will shackle himself against premature campaigning, if he files late; he loses time.
He can be delayed in the COMELEC by COMELEC hearing him out then nullifying his candidacy. But whatever decision arrived by COMELEC, this is sure to be elevated to the SC further delaying him. And that can still be petitioned for reconsideration.
All this delay will close his financial support as fund supporters are unlikely to finance his campaign while the question on his candidacy remains.
Should he win in the SC; the funds might have already been given to other candidates already.
He didn’t have the money to continue his Presidential quest in 1992 when he slid down to VP. I don’t think he alone can fund a Presidential run for himself.
And that is besides the baggage he carries.
Kung siya ay natabunan ng boto para kay Erap, ibig sabihin, siya ang nanalo.
Kung siya ay natambakan ng boto para kay Erap, ibig sabihin, pumunta sa kaniya ang boto na dapat kay Erap.
Kung siya ay nabaon sa boto ng para kay Erap, ibig sabihin siya ay nanalo dahil sa botong pumunta sa kaniya na dapat kay Erap pumunta.
Anong same-same ang sinasabi mo?
Ca T, ‘natabunan’, ‘natambakan’, and ‘nabaon’ do not connote victory on account of someone else’s votes. The proper term for that would be ‘na-Garci’.