In discussions over recent days, some ideas have ended up widely discussed: here’s the substance of some discussions I’ve had.
1. The President: what is her end goal? In the past, there were more who felt it was to step down in 2010. My view is, she can never afford to. Also, some argued she wasn’t emotionally, politically, and financially invested in charter change. Contrary view: she has to engineer it sooner rather than later, because she cannot step down, and needs to firm up her control and ability to succeed herself as 2010 approaches. If she doesn’t have constitutional change by 2007, once the mid-term elections take place she’s a lame duck, and it’s open season on her, forcing her no choice but to step down or impose martial law (which wouldn’t be good for her public relations).
President doesn’t want elections. Neither does the Speaker who may lose his seat. Both would receive a bad political blow from failing to achieve constitutional changes before the May elections. The Speaker knows full well, though, that if push comes to shove, the President has more options than he. So while he pushed for a constituent assembly in the past, to gain credit for a shift to the parliamentary system, now, he has to push forward the so-called people’s initiative. The President’s pet party, Kampi, is reportedly fed up with a House dominated by Lakas veterans since the Ramos years. It’s their turn, their time in the sun -under their leader, the President, and not the Speaker. Seems Prospero Pichay’s revised proposal, which he and his partymates want adopted “by substitution,” to replace the Jaraulla amendments, would maintain the Speaker, and fuse the offices of President and Prime Minister.
One option to keep the peace, so Speaker de Venecia can fight another day and the President doesn’t have to tip her hand too early: postpone the elections to November from May, which gives wiggle room (if no one gets upset by postponement, then the postponement can be postponed). It all depends on the Supreme Court: for or against so-called people’s initiative? If it decides for it, we go to a plebiscite in January or February 2007, which government will win. If it decides against it, the House might make an attempt to force the issue, also resulting in a plebiscite in January, or February or even March.
But election fever sets in for the political class by November or December, as candidacies must be filed by February (for local positions) or March (for national positions).
My view: if a plebiscite is held, it will expend people’s energies so no one will be in the mood to really care about an election. If a plebiscite doesn’t take place, there must be elections.
Either way: a plebiscite and an election requires a cooperative Comelec, and what better way than for Ombudsman to give everyone in the Comelec a get out of jail card.
Technorati Tags: philippines, politics
and if there”s a welling up to boycott the plebiscite as a political strategy to force the election scenario? in itself, a boycott becomes a response to the plebiscite.
“The President: what is her end goal? … My view is, she can never afford to.”
MLQ,
I used to think that way too… but no more.
Gloria Arroyo has grown to love power so much she will not let go.
Look at how thin she was when she was campaigning in 2004 and how fat she is now. You would think that with all her problems since 2004 she would be skin and bones by now…but no.
You will have to pry the keys to Malacanang from her dead hands.
mb -i agree.
The people wants glue to go, but Glue sticks like crazy. With MLQ3’s scenario, which is technically legal??? and the military under glues’ thumb, we’ll have glue stuck to our butts foreverrrrr.
Nobody seems to favor a coup. Well at least those who have assets to lose and fears interim military rule more than glue slapping their faces every moment she stays in power. So when glue has all of us fixed, when she passes away, her son takes over, then her apo, and so on.
WHAT A NIGHTMARE!!!
^ hahaha. What a nightmare talaga.
“Sending out an SOS†( – “Message in a Bottleâ€Â, w/apologies to Sting)
The COMELEC website provides the following dates based on the Omnibus Election Code and other election laws:
Nov. 30, 2006 onwards – party conventions (to select and announce candidates)
Jan. 14, 2007 to June 17, 2007 – Election Period, for purposes of enforcing the following prohibitions: alteration of territory, precinct; bearing or carrying of firearms in public places; suspension of elective local officials (so maybe oppositionist-mayors have to survive until Jan.14 at which time it is already prohibited to suspend them); transfer of officers and employees in the civil service; organization of reaction forces, etc.; use of armed security personnel by candidates.
Jan. 15, 2007 to Feb. 12, 2007 – Period to file candidacy for Senators; period to file manifestation of intent to participate in party list elections
Jan. 15, 2007 to March 29, 2007 – Period to file candidacy for local elective position
Feb. 13, 2007 to May 12, 2007 – Campaign period for Senatorial elections and party list
March 30, 2007 to May 12, 2007 – Campaign period for elections of members of House of Reps and for provincial, city, and municipal offices.
May 14, 2007 – Election day.
The calendar of the House of Representatives based on newspaper account is: Oct. 14 – Break.
Nov. 6 — resume session
Dec. 21 – Christmas break
Rep. Boy Nograles in an interview (Inq7.net) said : “In our last day of session, we’re willing to stop the clock and extend until the wee hours to get this (chacha) done so when we come back in November we can call for a constitutional assembly.â€Â
Elsewhere however Speaker de Venecia said they would wait until the Supreme Court justices resolve the so-called people’s initiative case. (The deadline of the memos in that case is, I think, Oct. 10. Supreme Court can calendar it for en banc, at the earliest, in a week or two after Oct. 10, and release its decision, at the earliest, right after en banc.)
If the Supreme Court is inordinately fast, i.e., if the Supreme Court schedules an en banc within 3 days from the case being submitted for resolution and releases its decision at the en banc (3 days after Oct. 10), then Boy Nograles’s calculation is good, that they can stop the clock on their last day, Oct. 14. But that would be inordinately, unusually, uncharacteristically, uncalled-for, unduly, extraordinarily fast (I must have committed a grammatical error in that series ) on the part of the Supreme Court.
Or the House can just choose not to wait.
Q3… what again is your basis for your sentence that she/GMA can never afford to step down in 2010. GMA can move to Europe, or to Southern Cal. She can even stay in Manila, and as Imelda and the rest of the Marcos squad has done, prove again on how loving and forging the Filipinos are.
up student, it’s a psychological argument. the trauma of her father’s defeat and yet his reputation for being a nice guy, plus the disgrace of the marcoses, and her assumption of power in the wake of estrada’s disgrace -she can never allow herself to fall and by so doing, not only put her in league with estrada and the marcoses, but also disgrace her father.
so she has to stay in power for life -with the added satisfaction of getting even with all her critics.
Q3… so you did mean what you said, your belief that GMA believes that she has to stay in power for life. That’s amazing, considering there is only a limited few who have a claim-of-whatever-nature to life-terms, to include the Pope, the King of Thailand and a few other such royalties. All others who got into power via elections of sorts have limited tenures. And my point is that GMA should have enough retention of whatever she has learned/read/studied from years ago to know that (a) woe has befallen all those who have stayed longer than their entitlement; and (b) GMA’s entitlement maximum is to 2010, not a day longer.
And I believe if she stays longer than her mandate, those who may have some reservation now of her legality or her fitness to the office will no longer have any scruples of going all way and remembering the marcoses, the estradas and all those that may have gotten away with their clothes still on, maybe this time will no longer be the case. History is known not to repeat itself once in a while.
manuelbuencamino’s hubris that GMA has “grown to love power so much she will not let go” because she is suppoosed to be “skin and bones” by now but she isn’t, is a crude attempt at humour that is not at all funny. That is a classic example of what political discourse has morphed into in this country. The leftists’ (communists’) hate-filled rhetoric against the President of the Republic seems to have become in vogue nowadays, especially among the youth of the land. To these misguided citizens, insulting GMA is “cool” and fashionable preoccupation. What happened to good old fashioned civility?
Q3, Dado Macapagal still makes good press in websites and history books. His Land Reform Code is a landmark achievement. And Dado Macapagal walked out of Malacanang as a president. Stonehill scandal (and other such events) did not trigger any military coup or people-revolt. I will use the word ‘disappointment’, not disgrace, as what he (and his daughter GMA) may feel regarding President D. Macapagal’s failure to win a second term.
Many a web-page for GMA already highlights that she extra-special because she/GMA is on her second presidential term of sorts. This second-term claim to fame, of course, gets erased if she gets routed out of office before the end of her 2010-term. So far, I have this perception that it serves history well (and GMA well on a personal basis) for her to concentrate on economic programs to move the country program as opposed to risking the Marcos disgrace — graft and human rights violations with a dramatic ouster-from-power via a military coup cum people-power demonstrations.
bencard, while people normally try to keep things ‘civil’, in a conflict between the discourse of civility and the discourse of justice, some, particularly among the youth, choose to favor the latter. To do otherwise would just cloak evil with banality. Associating anti-GMA rhetoric with leftists/communists does not present the whole truth. Hatred for GMA and her lies cuts across the political spectrum as her offenses are against basic human decency.
Bancard, you may be in GMA’s payroll: but when people begin dying prematurely because they can’t afford to but meds for diabetes and hypertension because we have leaders who will do whatever it takes to stay in power your call for civility can kiss my holy rear.
Bancard, you may be in GMA’s payroll: but when people begin dying prematurely because they can’t afford to buy meds for diabetes and hypertension because we have leaders who will do whatever it takes to stay in power your call for civility can kiss my holy rear.
student, refer to my comment: dm was not disgraced, but the defeat was surely a trauma as the loss of the presidency is for any president’s family, the way people suddenly change is something not even the pros much less their families, are ever quite prepared for.
one reason many were prepared to give her the doubt (and why some still do) is of course her father’s decency. and why the collapse in confidence in her, too, was so swift for some and so emotional for still more.
and yes, her gamble is of course that somehow enough can be convinced life is better -or at least nowhere near as bad as it might under someone else- so that she get’s a free pass sometime.
q3… GMA has not yet begun to tell anecdotes, has she, about dreams of conversations between herself and an Extremely Bright Light and that she is “an anointed”? Having a psychological need to leave a legacy of “life better for Filipinos” is a positive, as long as the need is not psychotic. In regards one of the items you mentioned — lame-duck status — I will agree than that GMA fears being lame-duck since the lame-duck has less ability to persuade and barter.
Constitutional change is not a significant-enough legacy. I still have not seen any detail the proposals that directly result in {jobs-economic-progress, better health care or educational facilities, freedom-of-expression / protection of the media, and other metrics ) “life is better for Filipinos”. What is easier to see in the proposals are are items that allow for “life better for politicians”. Constitutional change does give GMA a chance to stay past 2010, something that must not be allowed to happen.
You mean, we’ll have a long-term squatter in Malacañan? And the people will end up powerless and be unable to kick her out? But she’s only 4’10”-why is it so difficult?
To cvj, the youth can be forgiven for choosing passion over reason. In time, they too will realize that our’s is not a perfect world, and their hatred are largely influenced by the politics of hate employed by some of their desperate elders who say: ” labandera alis diyan, kami naman”. By the way, what proof do you have regarding GMA’s “offenses against basic human decency”?
To holyfather: there you go again with your conclusory speculation. I have sufficient income in the U.S. where I live and work for decades and still does. I definetly have no need to be in GMA’s payroll in order to disagree with you and the likes of you. And you call yourself “holy”? What an aberration!
Bencard… If you get past the drama, you’ll quickly see that the lament against GMA is a plea for “life better for Filipinos”. People are concerned about job-opportunities, meds & health-care issues, human rights issues, freedom-of-expression issues. What does GMA promise to make happen next year (or in 2008) which she assures will result in life better for Filipinos?
Bencard, you are absolutely correct. The damatans wants na sila naman ang kumurakot. Besides, ate glo does not give a hoot about what this people say about her, true or not.
So, mabuhay ka Bencard. You are one of the few who still believe and love ate glo. Continue with the good that you are doing, and thank you Tito Sam at pinagpapala mo si Bencard, malayo sa kahirapan ng buhay sa pinas.
Keep it up Bencard and again, Mabuhay Ka.
Bencard… decades away in the US may have transformed you already where you have forgotten that Filipinos are not exactly gifted in expressing their thoughts in cold clinical terms. Those light-years away have to work past the passion and name-calling to get to the issues being raised. “Offenses against bsic human decency”, in terms that a US-of-A or European resident will appreciate, is measured by the number of media (TV, newspaper, radio, etc) that are killed. The issue is more severe the higher the proportion of deaths that are unresolved. And before you leap into the stupid question of “how do you know it is GMA who is responsible,” the phrase “the buck stops here” should be familiar to you. GMA’s administration is responsible for the nation’s law and order situation. As for holyfather, the issue is negligibly that a blogger labelled himself himself holyfather (not WacoAvenger nor BenFromDetroit), a more important issue is meds — which, to you in the US relate to affordable health care.
Filipinos ain’t that hard to understand once you put your heart to it.
MB, I disagree with you assessment of ate glo’s condition. Bakit skin and bones samantalang according to some experts on stress management, food is the outlet of stressed pipol. Bencard, who is in the US may agree to that. Ang daming matatabang markano at markana dahil sa stress.
So, ate glo’s pisikal condition is completely normal for stressed pipol. Kayong di civil ang may kasalanan. Aba e ang sarap ng pagkain sa palasyo. Tamo is Mike, fatso nga tawag sa kanya. Di civil yun. Kahit na totoong mataba siya, rude na tawaging fat siya. Dapat, chubby o kaya naman, a man with a hearty appetite.
UP student, wag mong gawing tanga si Bencard. Alam na niya yang mga pinag sasabi mo. Si Bush ng Amerika ay binabambu ng katakot-takut, ginagawang katatawanan ng komikero at kung ano-ano pa. Iyan ang ganda sa US-of-A. Demokrasya! Hinde naman totoo sa pinas yan. It is unfair to compare pinas to US-of-A.
Pinagtatangol lang ni Bencard si ate glo dahil babae si ate glo. Maginoo si Bencard.
bencard, as long as the youth use reason to inform their passion, there is nothing that needs to be forgiven. As has happened at the onset of the Marcos dictatorship, it was the youth that sounded the alarm and paid the price while the elders went about their business. The problem is that many of those who have gone through EDSA and EDSA2 mistake cynicism for political sophistication, and as a result, have embraced an ‘end justifies the means’ approach. What the otherwise decent folks in civil society do not realize is that there is no room for amateur Machiavellis. Once you start playing this game, the professionals with their brutal tactics and lack of scruples will eventually get the upper hand. A straightforward uncompromising demand for justice, transparency and accountability is the best insurance we have against the eventual breakdown of the State.
As for your question, to start with i suggest you google ‘Hello Garci’, ‘Palparan’, ‘Joc-joc Bolante’, ‘Proclamation 1017’, ‘EO 464’, ‘Calibrated Preemptive Response’, ‘Mega Pacific’ so you can get yourself acquainted with these matters.
UP, I am with you even though i’m what you may say light years away. i’m still a true pinoy and feel the same pain they are feeling.
Bencard, matay ko mang isipin, napakahirap igalang ang taong matagal nang nawalan ng galang.
Bencard…respect is earned. no free lunch ika, nga ng karamihan.
makaglo, nakaka-aliw basahin ang iyong blog-entry. Importante nga sa bayan ang mga maginoo na nag-tatanggol sa babae (at sa mga batang maliliit, at sa mga tao na dahil sa kahirapang gumawa ng hanapbuhay ay hindi makabili ng gamot). Ikaw pala ay nakakaintindi sa ina-alok ni Presidente para umunlad ang bayan, puwede bang ipaliwanag mo uli para iyong mga galit kay Presidente ay maunawaan naman? Aasenso ba ang bansa sa 2007 o pareho pa rin?
cvj and U.P student, those are mostly unresolved issues that you have enumerated, not proof of “offenses against human decency” as you insist. In human terms, you need evidence that will stand up in a court of law to prove an assertion and arrive at the “truth” – human truth, not the kind that Brother Villanueva and Bishops Bacani and Cruz presumptiously invoke. It is too easy to make accusation but too hard to come up with admissible proof. Justice is not a matter of asserting: “you are a thief because that’s the way I perceive you to be, so prove to me that your are not”.
Oh my goodness me, this is unreal – I can’t believe the what I’m reading here by Gloria’s die hard supporters. Utterly delusional!
I admire the folks here who have the patience, the stamina to listen to or read such downright rubbish!
Mlq3, I’m outa here.
anna, “utterly delusional”, “rubbish”? you are getting a bit too personal. Why don’t you argue with your intellect, or are all these over your head, out of your league. If that is the case, goodbye and good riddance.
Up Student, me alma mater. Kailangan ko pa bang ipaliwanag ang malinaw? Puwede bang ilista ang utang sa tubig?
Aasenso ba ang bansa sa 2007? Oo! Bubutasin ang langit sa taas ng akyat ng GDP. Bawat pamilya ay mabubusog at magpapakasawa sa noodles. Magiging malaking influence ang pinoy sa kabataan ng buong daigdig sa pamamagitan ng supermaids. Walang kaparis na kalayaan ang matatamo ng bawat nilalang na makaglo(hehehe). Tataas ang halaga ng piso. Puwede na tayong magpakalunod sa produkto ng ibang bayan(yung meatik). Magkakasundo at magsasama-sama ang oposisyon, sa camp aguinaldo. Masusunod ang planong Mega regions. Yung mga magnanakaw sa mega region 1, Yung sinungalan mega region 2 at ynug kurakot sa mega region 3. All 3 comprising Mega-Malisya. Papayat si 1st gentleman. Ipapa opera ni ate glo ang nunal niya sa kanyang pisngi. Magiging seksi siya.
Iyan ang mga bagay na ayaw unawain ng galit kay ate glo na asenso.
Mabuhay si ate glo!
Hoy anna, walang bato-bato sa langit. Sensya na Bencard. Huwag kang magpadala at mapikon. Iskrima ng laway never hurt anybody. Pera lang kung ma libel suit ang kalaban.
Anna, balik ka na rito at sabihin ang laman ng isip. Sige ako meron. Hehehe.
Makaglo at Bencard… Iskrima ng laway, okay lang. Para itong yo mama jokes… ‘yo mama so ugly when they took her to the beautician it took 9 hours. . .for a quote!”
makaglo, “bubutasin ang langit sa taas ng akyat ng GDP”? WOW!!
BABALIK NA AKO SA PINAS!
PARANG UTOPIA, HUH?
Chabelli… “You mean, we’ll have a long-term squatter in Malacañan?” Hindi ata napasama sa elementary school books, pero metro-Manila history includes where politicians all the way back to Lacson and even earlier have coddled squatters for so long than it is not only tradion, it is now the law of the land. Squatters on public land (along the railroad tracks as well as straddling the Pasig river) have extra-ordinary rights. Sheriff-action is not enough, what is needed to evict Pasig River squatters is AN ACT OR PARLIAMENT!!!
UP Student…if I may ask, why is it taking the Pilipinos so long to wake up and do something to eject this “Terrorist” in Malacañan?
bencard,
You’re right. We should be all be civil and remind Gloria that “Today’s pig is tomorrow’s bacon.”
bencard, when it comes to the issues against Arroyo, the pattern has always been ‘revelation’ [of a wrongdoing] followed by ‘obstruction’ [by Gloria and her allies]. Under these circumstances where the institutional mechanisms that are normally used to uncover the truth are suppressed by the accused party who also happens to hold power, it is premature to act as if there is a case that is already being tried before a court of law. That would be employing legalistic discourse in an oppressive manner. Your last sentence is a straw man reformulation of the Opposition’s argument since it leaves out the fact that these perceptions are backed up by real world events.
cvj, ang galing ng pagka explain mo. Matanong kita, Ano solution sa kalagayang pinaliwanag mo? Meron ba? For sure, totoo man ang sinabi mo, hinde ang panglalait kay ate glo ang solution dahil alam mo naman natin na wa epek yun.
Itong eksena ni Manuel sa pananatili ni ate glo sa lukluk ng kapangyarihan halimbawa, kung ayaw ng sambayanan na mangyari yan, ano ang dapat nilang gawain? Tangna mo, hayop ka gloria ain’t gonna do it.
Itong si Bencard malamang markano citizen na yan. Maaring di na uuwi yan, pero nagtatanong kung bakit walang modo ang salita ng kalaban.
So, yung mga anti glo diyan na mainit ang ulo, hinay hinay lang. Baka sabihin na kayo bastos sa tinatawag ni anna na bastusan republic.
guys,
medyo off-topic ako ngayon pero gusto ko lang sana tanungin yung mga alipores ni GMA dito kung asan na yung tseke ng mga CHED scholars? grabe, binawasan na nga nila yung amount ng scholarship tapos delayed pa ung tseke. ang siste, patapos na yung first sem wala pa din yung tseke. tapos enrolment na naman for second sem, tsk…tsk…tsk.
mlq3, baka naman pwede mo bulabugin yung mga nasa CHED na i-release na yung tseke. kawawa naman yung mga scholars.
salamat po!
ano yan?
Monologue?
hmmm……
makaglo, sa tingin ko, maayos lang ang problema na ito kung maging maliwanag sa ‘civil society’ kung saan tayo pumapatungo sa ilalim ni Gloria Arroyo. Dapat lang nila buksan ang kanilang mga mata at kaluluwa sa mga nangyayari sa paligid nila. Sabay nito, dapat din matandaan ng nakararami na, tulad ng mga nagdaan na EDSA, nasasa-atin ang kapangyarihan na palayasin si Arroyo o sinuman susunod sa kanya na mag-tangkang gumaya. Samantala, kung hindi man sapat na lunas ang punahin (o murahin) si Ate Glo, mas lalo namang hindi lunas ang manahimik lamang. Baka kasi isipin niya na ok lang ang mambastos.
Tama ka cvj dapat punahin (o murahin) ang mga bagay o mga taong di katangap-tangap ang ginagawa at ito ay normal na reaction kung gusto mong magkaroon ng kawastuhan ang lahat. Kung sana nga lamang nalilinawan o ginagawan ng paraan na malinawan ang lahat di sana ganito o dapat na umabot pa sa murahan o bastusan. Minsan kasi nakakagalit na rin eh.
You are correct, anna de brux, lots of rubbish from all sides. Much heat producing no light.
Carl, the light may shine at the end of the tunnel, but just how long the tunnel is, no one is sure. Heat instead produces fire, dangerous.
bancard,
I share the same observation too and i have been pointing it out to manuel buencamino (he is not really young) several times before. And guess what, I got the same reponse from cvj and his ilk and even the same accusation as malcanang paid hack too.
I think the trend is clear…
I used to be so uncomfortable about “all talks no actions” from these people. But then you have to understand that these really are small group of bloggers. I believe that a lot of filipino people out there are really doing the real thing.
ang paq-gamit ng bastos na pananalita sa isang seriosong talakayan, o pag-mumura sa kalaban, ay mga sandatang karaniwang ginagamit ng mga walang tamang pangangatwiran. Ang kaparis nito ay mambubugbog ng aswawa na gumagamit ng dahas kapag nauubusan ng katwiran, o hindi matangap ang katotohanan.
Judging from the propensities of most of our people, (e.g., the disgusting egg-throwing incident at U.P., and Cayetano’s character assasination of the President’s family) both in and out of politics and government, this appears to be a cultural thing that is ingrained in our national character. Shame, shame, shame!
makaglo…”Bawat pamilya ay mabubusog at magpapakasawa sa noodles. Magiging malaking influence ang pinoy sa kabataan ng buong daigdig sa pamamagitan ng supermaids. Walang kaparis na kalayaan ang matatamo ng bawat nilalang na makaglo(hehehe). Tataas ang halaga ng piso. Puwede na tayong magpakalunod sa produkto ng ibang bayan(yung meatik). Magkakasundo at magsasama-sama ang oposisyon, sa camp aguinaldo.”
mabuti pa si makaglo, malinaw ang pananaw sa mga darating na araw…
noodles… kaya mabubundat nang husto ang ating kabataan, darami ang Kwaziorkor at Maramus sa mga tulungan centers, lalo na sa Tondo
supermaids… mga alila pa rin, asensado nga lamang dahil kay GMA, naging “SUPER”
pinoy malulunod sa mga imports…dahil ultimong engine ng tricycle hindi makagawa ang RP samantalang nakarating na sa buwan ang usa noon pang ’60s
magkakasundo ang oposisyon…sa Camp Aguinaldo, malapit na talagang mangyari, oras na hindi makalusot ang ConAss o Singaw, malamang sa Camp Aguinaldo nga silang lahat!
Congaratulations, makaglo, you have excellent predictions.
rego,about “all talks no actionsâ€Â, people have different specialties, some are talkers, writers, columnists, bloggers journalist…whatever. their forte is to convey their thoughts and hope people wll listen and from there do something about the issues. othere are workers, listeners etc. everyone has his own job in the society, some can do multi tasks.
remember…pen is mightier than the sword.